Umpire Scorecard Thread

[Bahama O's Fan]

All this does for me and should do for MLB is push the need for roboumps. 

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, justD said:

Just to clarify, +31 and -5  are the number of runs 'given' or 'taken away' for the overall season as a result of missed calls?

If so, the numbers seem pretty significant, especially for NYY and CLE

Is there any calculation that equates runs with wins to see about how many extra wins the Yankees have been gifted by umpires this year? 31 extra runs feels like it would correspond to 6-8 extra wins but I have no idea how the math would come out.  

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don't think there's anything subconscious about it. Umpires know that if they make a bad call against the Yankees Boone will go balrog, and it'll be the top story on every sports cast and social media site for the next 48 hours. So umps just give them most of the close calls to avoid the hassle. 

Marmol is #1 in ejections in the NL but that doesn't seem to be doing them any good in umpire bias. Vogt just got his first ejection arguing a balk call on 8/9 so it appears a mild mannered manager can still get the umps on their side. 

[Malike]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yep, that's what they mean.   Umpire subconscious bias, or catcher framing skills?   You decide.

I think it has less to do with framing and more to do with umpires who are not good at their jobs.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Austin Wells and Jose Trevino are the #3 and #4 best pitch framers in all of baseball. The two of them have saved 19 runs (Catcher Framing Runs).

Adley? #48

McCann? #50

Adley and McCann are worth -9 runs. That's a 28 run swing. If you believe 10 runs = 1 win, that's basically a 3 win difference between the teams just on framing alone.

That explains it all to me. 

But that’s a fait accomplis.  If the umpires give the Yankees pitchers the calls, the catchers will get credited with good framing whether they did anything or not.   So like I said, is it good framing, or bias?

Now, I’ll say this: Ump Scorecard breaks down whether it’s the hitters or the pitchers who are getting the breaks.   For the Yankees, their hitters are +3.2 while their pitchers are +27.5.   If it was just pro-Yankee bias, you’d expect both their hitters and pitchers would be getting the calls to roughly the same extent.   So, the fact that the Yankees pitchers are much more favored than their hitters suggests that framing is a big factor.  

By the way, the O’s batters are -7.1 and the pitchers are +2.2.   But remember, umpires favor pitchers generally.  The median team score is roughly +5 for pitchers and -5 for batters. So, Yankees pitchers do about 22 runs better than an average team, and the batters do 8 runs better, when it comes to getting calls.   

The O’s batters are -7.1 (about 2 runs worse than average) and pitchers are +2.2 (3 runs worse than average).

 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Is there any calculation that equates runs with wins to see about how many extra wins the Yankees have been gifted by umpires this year? 31 extra runs feels like it would correspond to 6-8 extra wins but I have no idea how the math would come out.  

Very roughly, 10 runs = 1 win.  So, 3 wins.  But obviously, not all runs are created equal when it comes to impacting a specific game.  Some games are close and a bad call can heavily influence the outcome, other games aren’t close at all and a bad call is inconsequential even if it leads to some runs.  

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But that’s a fait accomplis.  If the umpires give the Yankees pitchers the calls, the catchers will get credited with good framing whether they did anything or not.   So like I said, is it good framing, or bias?

Now, I’ll say this: Ump Scorecard breaks down whether it’s the hitters or the pitchers who are getting the breaks.   For the Yankees, their hitters are +3.2 while their pitchers are +27.5.   If it was just pro-Yankee bias, you’d expect both their hitters and pitchers would be getting the calls to roughly the same extent.   So, the fact that the Yankees pitchers are much more favored than their hitters suggests that framing is a big factor.  

By the way, the O’s batters are -7.1 and the pitchers are +2.2.   But remember, umpires favor pitchers generally.  The median team score is roughly +5 for pitchers and -5 for batters. So, Yankees pitchers do about 22 runs better than an average team, and the batters do 8 runs better, when it comes to getting calls.   

The O’s batters are -7.1 (about 2 runs worse than average) and pitchers are +2.2 (3 runs worse than average).

 

Read the room, Frob.  People just want to believe that the Yankees get calls that benefit them.

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Read the room, Frob.  People just want to believe that the Yankees get calls that benefit them.

The facts say that the Yankees DO get calls that benefit them. The question being asked is why. Is it random chance or design? Over the last four years the Yankees are averaging +18 runs gifted them by home plate umpires. To put that in perspective only two teams (one of them the Yankees of course) out of thirty have been gifted that many runs this season. To average that kind of benefit over a four year span is extraordinary I would think.  

The best year for the Orioles was a +4 runs in 2023, but we averaged -9 runs total over four years. 

[Moose Milligan]

46 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

The facts say that the Yankees DO get calls that benefit them. The question being asked is why. Is it random chance or design? Over the last four years the Yankees are averaging +18 runs gifted them by home plate umpires. To put that in perspective only two teams (one of them the Yankees of course) out of thirty have been gifted that many runs this season. To average that kind of benefit over a four year span is extraordinary I would think.  

The best year for the Orioles was a +4 runs in 2023, but we averaged -9 runs total over four years. 

What’d I say 

[spiritof66]

There have been numerous studies into whether home crowds affect referees' calls in other sports, mostly soccer and basketball. Many, I think most, found that referee calls do tend to favor the home team. There is a 2023 study about ball/strike calls in baseball that appears to be behind a pay wall, but it apparently found that home plate umpires favored home teams by a small, but statistically significant amount. https://www.valpo.edu/stories/2024/03/19/bias-at-the-plate-what-umpires-tell-us-about-evaluators/ 

Two thoughts. If it's true that umpires calls are affected by a (presumably subconscious) desire to please home crowds, it makes sense that the NYYs would reap the largest benefit (or among the largest benefits) of that bias.  Their home crowds not only are among the largest in MLB, they are among the loudest, "home"-est and most vociferous in MLB. If there were away to combine and assess those elements, I am pretty sure the NYYs would head the list. In addition, I'm sure that the NYYs play their away games before crowds that include more of their fans than any other team in its away games -- including both transplanted New Yorkers and fans with no connection to New York who elect to root for a perennial contender with a rich history of success.

Second, one thing I've always wondered about is the identity of MLB's video reviewers. Who are they, how are they chosen, and how does MLB insure that they're not biased? They work in New York. Do they live in New York? Did they live in New York before they were hired? Might some of them be NYY fans, or one-time NYY fans? Or have family members or close friends who are NYY fans? (I may have thought about that because I grew up in the same Philadelphia suburb where longtime NL umpire Shag Crawford resided. I recall thinking about,  and probably talking with other kids about, how Crawford, who spent his entire life in the Philadelphia area, must be affected by that connection when he umpired Phillies games. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

I think the accuracy and how it impacts a team positively or negatively is interesting.  I don't really care if MLB goes total Robo at homeplate, but it might be a good idea.  I do think that the most impactful call, other than a 3rd strike, is at the 1-1 count.  There have been numerous calls this year where a strike called on that count has negatively impacted us and sometimes our opponents too, when the umps call a strike on a ball that is 1 to 1.5 ball widths beyond the projected strike box on tv.  It mostly occurs outside, but also inside, high and low.  We've seen it.

I don't have a problem if that strike zone is consistent for both pitchers, mostly, I have to say it is, but it's tough when there's runners on and that 1-1 turns into a 1-2 when it should have been reversed because it really wasn't a strike.

I'm not someone to blame the umps for loses.  I hate in football when the subjective nature of calls impacts the game, especially after all kinds of contact NOT being called thru out the game and then suddenly in the last 8 minutes the game is turned upside down by activist refs.  I'm rarely THAT upset with home plate umps, but there are times when they can be loose and it does affect the approach of batters as a result.

[Royle]

Looked to me like Kremer was getting squeezed on pitches Schmidt was getting.  Gunnar and O’Hearn both thought they had walks only to be rung up.  The Orioles just shrugged.

But finally, later in the game Soto got a strike called that he disagreed with and Boone immediately erupted, screaming from the dugout.  That has to have an impact, regardless of how minor.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Royle said:

Looked to me like Kremer was getting squeezed on pitches Schmidt was getting.  Gunnar and O’Hearn both thought they had walks only to be rung up.  The Orioles just shrugged.

But finally, later in the game Soto got a strike called that he disagreed with and Boone immediately erupted, screaming from the dugout.  That has to have an impact, regardless of how minor.

If I was an ump it would be a negative impact.

[Three Run Homer]

Please bring on the robots.  Give the umps a 20 percent raise if that's what it takes to buy their approval.  It's not just that the Yankees get the benefit of the doubt while the Orioles get the short end of the stick.  Umpires are biased against young hitters, and they are biased against left handed hitters.  Robo umps would make the game much more fair all around.  

[ShoelesJoe]

Another game, another game where the home plate umpire significantly favored the Yankees.