Joey Ortiz 2023

[Aglets]

I really thought Ortiz would be dealt by the deadline.  I really don't understand what we're doing here.

He has 384 total PA at the AAA level now with a combined .983 OPS.

That is enough.

[sportsfan8703]

Ortiz, Cowser, and Westburg have combined for like a .500 OPS in 182 PA. 49K/14BB. Even Gunnar struggled this year. I’m not sure if the scouts got a chance to see Gunnar a lot last year, since he wasn’t in one place very long. 

What’s going on in AAA?  Is it just normal rookie/MLB talent jump?  Is pitching down in the IL? OPS up?  Different ball?  Do our prospects spend a lot of time in AAA, so they are essentially getting scouted really well by the opposition and AAA pitching can’t exploit the weaknesses that the scouts see?

[Aglets]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ortiz, Cowser, and Westburg have combined for like a .500 OPS in 182 PA. 49K/14BB. Even Gunnar struggled this year. I’m not sure if the scouts got a chance to see Gunnar a lot last year, since he wasn’t in one place very long. 

What’s going on in AAA?  Is it just normal rookie/MLB talent jump?  Is pitching down in the IL? OPS up?  Different ball?  Do our prospects spend a lot of time in AAA, so they are essentially getting scouted really well by the opposition and AAA pitching can’t exploit the weaknesses that the scouts see?

Buck used to say that the jump from AAA to the majors was the hardest jump in any level of professional sports.  I think it's very common to see guys struggle for an adjustment period, even the great ones.   Westburg's numbers aren't too bad.

[baltfan]

59 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I really thought Ortiz would be dealt by the deadline.  I really don't understand what we're doing here.

He has 384 total PA at the AAA level now with a combined .983 OPS.

That is enough.

His value may be greater at the end of the season.  Wouldn't you want to trade him then?  Or maybe they aren't sure of him vs. Westburg and would like to keep both to see who they like better.  There are a lot of possibilities.

[btdart20]

43 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ortiz, Cowser, and Westburg have combined for like a .500 OPS in 182 PA. 49K/14BB. Even Gunnar struggled this year. I’m not sure if the scouts got a chance to see Gunnar a lot last year, since he wasn’t in one place very long. 

What’s going on in AAA?  Is it just normal rookie/MLB talent jump?  Is pitching down in the IL? OPS up?  Different ball?  Do our prospects spend a lot of time in AAA, so they are essentially getting scouted really well by the opposition and AAA pitching can’t exploit the weaknesses that the scouts see?

This is a fair question to ask since they are at the tip of the talent spear.  These guys (plus Gunnar and Adley) would be a good feedback loop for system improvements.

Could it be that pitchers in the MLB are that much better than pitchers in AAA?  Meaning, that a good swing decision in the MLB will mean swinging at a less ideal pitch than a good swing decision in AAA.  

That said, full steam ahead with giving these guys experience and time to fine-tune their approach.

[Sports Guy]

https://x.com/rotoclegg/status/1690381932675170305?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

Edited August 12, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Gurgi]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

https://x.com/rotoclegg/status/1690381932675170305?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

What exactly does the stat mean Ortiz is doing well?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Gurgi said:

What exactly does the stat mean Ortiz is doing well?

He is hitting the ball in the zone at a high rate and he is hitting it hard.

[Gurgi]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He is hitting the ball in the zone at a high rate and he is hitting it hard.

You think he can be an above average MLB SS?

What are we going to do with Henderson and Holiday?  This problem we are having seems to me to be highly unusual.  I personally only remember the Orioles having excess talent at one position and being forced to trade one was Jerry Hairston Jr and Brian Roberts.  

Usually in Oriole history when a prospect really shows he is ready he is brought right up.  We almost always had room somehow.  

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

You think he can be an above average MLB SS?

What are we going to do with Henderson and Holiday?  This problem we are having seems to me to be highly unusual.  I personally only remember the Orioles having excess talent at one position and being forced to trade one was Jerry Hairston Jr and Brian Roberts.  

Usually in Oriole history when a prospect really shows he is ready he is brought right up.  We almost always had room somehow.  

I think he can be an above average IFer at every position but first.

I have been saying it for a while but the question comes down to Westburg vs Ortiz. Can’t keep both, at least long term.

I don’t think there is a wrong answer there.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he can be an above average IFer at every position but first.

I have been saying it for a while but the question comes down to Westburg vs Ortiz. Can’t keep both, at least long term.

I don’t think there is a wrong answer there.

2b- Holliday

SS- Ortiz

3b- Henderson

UTI- Westburg

I could see that happening.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

2b- Holliday

SS- Ortiz

3b- Henderson

UTI- Westburg

I could see that happening.

It’s possible although I would still be surprised if Holliday isn’t the SS long term.

Where is the value for Westburg? Does he have more value as a 400 at bat part time UTi/Ben Zobrist type guy or does he more value in trade.

Some of that will have to do with how good are our starters and will they spend money to bring in starting pitching if needs be.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s possible although I would still be surprised if Holliday isn’t the SS long term.

Where is the value for Westburg? Does he have more value as a 400 at bat part time UTi/Ben Zobrist type guy or does he more value in trade.

Some of that will have to do with how good are our starters and will they spend money to bring in starting pitching if needs be.

 

Btw, same question for Ortiz. Where is he most valuable? Who carries more value? 

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s possible although I would still be surprised if Holliday isn’t the SS long term.

Where is the value for Westburg? Does he have more value as a 400 at bat part time UTi/Ben Zobrist type guy or does he more value in trade.

Some of that will have to do with how good are our starters and will they spend money to bring in starting pitching if needs be.

 

 

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, same question for Ortiz. Where is he most valuable? Who carries more value? 

Yes, that's the eternal question.  Where's the value?

There's a couple things here to factor.  First, you have 4 guys you feel good about long-term for 3 positions.  That's the minimum ratio I want- granted, there's very minimal bust potential in this group.  But we all know  injuries, slumps, etc. justifies such a ratio, especially with the safety valve of DH, and the fact these guys can all slide down the defensive scale to get playing time.  Second, they're a lot more valuable in trade if they've shown some major league success.

So I expect the Orioles will slow play it.  Certainly as long as they're winning 97 games and the division.  If next year (because they're not bringing up Holliday here to be some savior this year) they start slow or there are injuries they might speed up the timeline.

I expect next season to begin with an infield of Westburg, Ortiz, Henderson, Urias with Henderson playing every day and the other guys basically time sharing.  I personally wouldn't even be shocked to see Mateo here as a 26th man.

They'll want a second LHB in that mix, but they won't bother with a FA this year- like Frazier- but they'll just wait for Holliday come up mid-season, in no danger of winning the ROY.

They'll be looking to trade either Norby or Urias, one a vet and the other a prospect, and see if either package is worth it.  This same process is going on in the outfield with Hays, Santander, Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, etc.  So they'll be trying to make the same decisions there.

They will be conservative and slow.

 

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, Pickles said:

 

Yes, that's the eternal question.  Where's the value?

There's a couple things here to factor.  First, you have 4 guys you feel good about long-term for 3 positions.  That's the minimum ratio I want- granted, there's very minimal bust potential in this group.  But we all know  injuries, slumps, etc. justifies such a ratio, especially with the safety valve of DH, and the fact these guys can all slide down the defensive scale to get playing time.  Second, they're a lot more valuable in trade if they've shown some major league success.

So I expect the Orioles will slow play it.  Certainly as long as they're winning 97 games and the division.  If next year (because they're not bringing up Holliday here to be some savior this year) they start slow or there are injuries they might speed up the timeline.

I expect next season to begin with an infield of Westburg, Ortiz, Henderson, Urias with Henderson playing every day and the other guys basically time sharing.  I personally wouldn't even be shocked to see Mateo here as a 26th man.

They'll want a second LHB in that mix, but they won't bother with a FA this year- like Frazier- but they'll just wait for Holliday come up mid-season, in no danger of winning the ROY.

They'll be looking to trade either Norby or Urias, one a vet and the other a prospect, and see if either package is worth it.  This same process is going on in the outfield with Hays, Santander, Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, etc.  So they'll be trying to make the same decisions there.

They will be conservative and slow.

 

This is what I think will happen too.  Especially with the LHH.  And these 4 play solid defense with any 3 of them in the field at a time that the positions won’t matter as much.