The 2023 Orioles, 10 games at a time

[dystopia]

Just now, Hallas said:

Has there been anything that's accurate in predicting a team's record?

Doubt it. 

[Can_of_corn]

14 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

Fangraphs is predicting a losing record for the Orioles the rest of the way. The team with the best record in the league. I love how the "experts" keep underestimating the O's. I suspect the team uses it as motivation too.

If the teams needs extra motivation I don't know what to think.

 

[Uli2001]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If the teams needs extra motivation I don't know what to think.

 

It's human nature. Players may be professionals, but they are not robots. This kind of thing can help team chemistry. The Ravens rode media disdain all the way to the SB in 2000. Of course, you still need to have a good team.

[Frobby]

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

6-4 (37 RS, 45 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 33 RA)

0-1 @ SDP, 3-0 @ OAK, 2-1 vs. TOR, 2-1 vs. COL

 

[Frobby]

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

6-4 (37 RS, 45 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 33 RA)

8-2 (72 RS, 37 RA)

2-1 vs. CWS, 2-1 @ARI, 3-0 @LAA, 1-0 @BOS

By far our top offensive output of any of the listed 10-game stretches, and biggest run differential by a wide margin too.

 

 

[Hallas]

On 8/17/2023 at 9:31 PM, Uli2001 said:

Fangraphs is predicting a losing record for the Orioles the rest of the way. The team with the best record in the league. I love how the "experts" keep underestimating the O's. I suspect the team uses it as motivation too.

I'm reading between the lines a bit here, but it sounds like Fangraphs (read: Dan Szymborski) has an alternate version of ZIPS that projects the Orioles much better than the projected standings page.  Why they don't use that version in their projections, I couldn't tell you.  My best guess is that they are collecting more data to see if their projections are more accurate with the alternate version.  I believe the alternate version uses statcast data to inform the projections.

 

Dan is a pretty big O's fan so I'd like to think there isn't any anti Orioles bias in there.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Hallas

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Hallas said:

I'm reading between the lines a bit here, but it sounds like Fangraphs (read: Dan Szymborski) has an alternate version of ZIPS that projects the Orioles much better than the projected standings page.  Why they don't use that version in their projections, I couldn't tell you.  

No, there’s no alternative version of ZiPS.   The Fangraphs projected standings don’t rely exclusively on ZiPS, they rely on a 50/50 blend of the preseason projections of ZiPS (Szymborski) and Steamer (not Szymborski).   

Meanwhile, Szymborski’s ZiPS model updates during the season to account for performance, but Fangraphs doesn’t use that, it just sticks with the preseason  version.  The distinction between the two will be very pronounced for younger players, for the simple reason that the results of the current season represent a large percentage of their career results on which projections were based.  So, a team projection based solely on updated ZiPS projections will differ significantly from one based on preseason ZiPS/Steamer projections.  

 

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

No, there’s no alternative version of ZiPS.   The Fangraphs projected standings don’t rely exclusively on ZiPS, they rely on a 50/50 blend of the preseason projections of ZiPS (Szymborski) and Steamer (not Szymborski).   

Meanwhile, Szymborski’s ZiPS model updates during the season to account for performance, but Fangraphs doesn’t use that, it just sticks with the preseason  version.  The distinction between the two will be very pronounced for younger players, for the simple reason that the results of the current season represent a large percentage of their career results on which projections were based.  So, a team projection based solely on updated ZiPS projections will differ significantly from one based on preseason ZiPS/Steamer projections.  

 

In conversations with Dan on social media, he made reference to a "full fat" version that uses statcast data.  Also, the projections for the O's in their articles are much higher than the projections on the standings page.  (Specifically in the article about the Angels waiver spree) it had the O's WS odds much higher than their projected standings page. So based on this I inferred that Dan has a version of ZIPS that is different from what is used in the standings page.

[Frobby]

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

6-4 (37 RS, 45 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 33 RA)

8-2 (72 RS, 37 RA)

5-5 (54 RS, 52 RA)

1-1 @ BOS, 1-2 vs. STL, 2-2 vs. TBR, 1-0 vs. HOU

This segment was the weakest since games 71-80, and came in the form of a slump sandwich, a 4-game losing streak where the team scored 6 runs in 4 games.  In the other 6, the O’s went 5-1 and averaged 8 runs per game.  Go figure.  The O’s are now back on a three-game winning streak, and let’s hope that continues into the final full 10-game segment of the year.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

5-5 (50 RS, 50 RA)

8-2 (56 RS, 39 RA)

7-3 (52 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (42 RS, 35 RA)

7-3 (57 RS, 42 RA)

4-6 (38 RS, 54 RA)

6-4 (49 RS, 43 RA)

5-5 (45 RS, 60 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 27 RA)

7-3 (44 RS, 46 RA)

6-4 (54 RS, 34 RA)

6-4 (37 RS, 45 RA)

7-3 (58 RS, 33 RA)

8-2 (72 RS, 37 RA)

5-5 (54 RS, 52 RA)

6-4 (35 RS, 27 RA)

1-1 @HOU, 2-2@CLE, 2-0 vs. WSN, 1-1 vs.  BOS

This was the weakest hitting 10-game segment of the entire year, but the pitching tied its best segment of the season.  On the year, we had 12 winning segments, 3 .500 segments, and only one losing segment   Just an incredibly consistent season for this team any way you slice it.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Frobby