Gunnar Henderson 2023

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, banks703 said:

And I wrote the exact same thing about Ortiz and the exact same thing about Holliday. It's GM speak for both players.

It's your opinion that when he says it about Ortiz that he's just talking up a prospect to keep his value high but that he actually really means it when he says it about Holliday. Get out of here, man. I get that you refuse to ever admit to being wrong but it's comical at this point.

Who do you think is stronger, my dad or your dad?

Your posts are getting dumber.

First of all, I believe Elias thinks Ortiz is a SS. I don’t believe he is convinced it will be for the Orioles for the long term. That is absolutely a GM thing and it’s absolutely what he should say publicly. 

If you don’t understand the difference between that and what he said as a reason to take Holliday over everyone else than my instinct to not value your opinion was dead on accurate.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not my opinion..it’s the one written time and time again by everyone who writes up their opinions about Holliday. Not one report on Holliday has said, we rate him #1 because of his bat and nothing else.  You show me one that says that.

It's common sense

 

You're going to die on this hill, I can see that. But you have nothing substantive to support your argument. You're telling me Elias means what he says about Holliday but when he says the exact same thing about Ortiz that it's just GM speak. You're all over the place.

I'm telling you, @Tony-OH has told you (us), fangraphs is starting to tell us.. Holliday is not a good defensive prospect at SS. I suspect that when he ends up at 2B next year, Hyde and Elias will be wrong about playing him at 2B and not SS. I can't wait for your argument then. 

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Your posts are getting dumber.

First of all, I believe Elias thinks Ortiz is a SS. I don’t believe he is convinced it will be for the Orioles for the long term. That is absolutely a GM thing and it’s absolutely what he should say publicly. 

If you don’t understand the difference between that and what he said as a reason to take Holliday over everyone else than my instinct to not value your opinion was dead on accurate.

Alright, buddy. 

How about a ban-bet? If Holliday supplants Gunnar from SS I will leave the Hangout but if he doesn't then you have to leave. Deal?

Put your money where your mouth is, friend. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

It's common sense

 

You're going to die on this hill, I can see that. But you have nothing substantive to support your argument. You're telling me Elias means what he says about Holliday but when he says the exact same thing about Ortiz that it's just GM speak. You're all over the place.

I'm telling you, @Tony-OH has told you (us), fangraphs is starting to tell us.. Holliday is not a good defensive prospect at SS. I suspect that when he ends up at 2B next year, Hyde and Elias will be wrong about playing him at 2B and not SS. I can't wait for your argument then. 

When Elias deems him not a SS anymore, I will be fine with that.

Im not even saying he’s not. What I’m saying is that people who matter don’t feel that way. You don’t matter.

Tony has never said he’s not a SS prospect. I believe what Tony has said is that he has limitations and has to improve.

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

When Elias deems him not a SS anymore, I will be fine with that.

Im not even saying he’s not. What I’m saying is that people who matter don’t feel that way. You don’t matter.

Tony has never said he’s not a SS prospect. I believe what Tony has said is that he has limitations and has to improve.

I didn't write that Tony stated that he wasn't a SS prospect. I wrote that Tony has stated that he's not a good defensive prospect. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by banks703

[Sports Guy]

Even the FG article said that they think he will eventually be fine but he needs to improve.

I want to see the improvement before making any judgements. I know what Elias and the Os org thinks and I know what the scouting community thinks.  For now, I will believe what they think and will see where things go from there.

How much work Holliday puts into things will matter too.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I didn't write that Tony stated that he wasn't a SS prospect. I wrote that Tony has stated that he's not a good defensive prospect. 

That’s the same thing. If you aren’t a good defensive SS and really can’t become one, you aren’t a SS prospect.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s the same thing. If you aren’t a good defensive SS, you aren’t a SS prospect.

It is most definitely not the same thing. Xander Boegarts, Tim Anderson, Trea Turner are good examples of guys who did not profile as good defensive SS but have played the position at the ML level now for as much as ten years. I don't consider teams like the Padres, White Sox or Phillies as teams who prioritize defense like the Orioles.

My statements on Holliday will remain true, that he is a guy that can play SS but that he is not going to be a good defensive player there. He has physical limitations that he will not outgrow that will keep him from being an elite defender. If the O's deviate from their priority of strong defense up the middle, then he very well may end up at SS but if they stick to their organization philosophy, he will not be their SS because he is not going to be the best defensive option there. 

[Sports Guy]

Trea Turner has had some average to well above average defensive seasons at SS according to OAA.  Same with Anderson.

Xander has had a few but largely not good.

 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s the same thing. If you aren’t a good defensive SS and really can’t become one, you aren’t a SS prospect.

What if you simply aren’t as good defensively as a teammate?   If Holliday takes a back seat to Ortiz or Gunnar, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good defensive SS.   Guys are drafted because they can play SS and get moved to another position all the time.  Manny is a perfect example of this.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

What if you simply aren’t as good defensively as a teammate?   If Holliday takes a back seat to Ortiz or Gunnar, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good defensive SS.   Guys are drafted because they can play SS and get moved to another position all the time.  Manny is a perfect example of this.  

Sure..I have zero doubt that Holliday was drafted to be the SS by 2025 at the latest.

At that time, it was trending towards Gunnar not being a SS.  If Gunnar improves to the point where he is an elite SS AND isn’t outgrowing the position, maybe that causes a change. I have pushed back against that but maybe Gunnar is the one guy that changes things..well that and if Holliday himself doesn’t do what’s needed to improve. Honestly, that’s an aspect of things that I have overlooked and not giving much thought to and that is wrong on my part. He has to work on things and sometimes defense isn’t the fun stuff to work on.

Now, Gunnar looks really good at SS but not all the defensive stats love him there. It’s not like he’s defintively elite across the board.  He’s not there yet. Will he get there? How much bigger will he get?  
 

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What if you simply aren’t as good defensively as a teammate?   If Holliday takes a back seat to Ortiz or Gunnar, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good defensive SS.   Guys are drafted because they can play SS and get moved to another position all the time.  Manny is a perfect example of this.  

This has been the point that I have been making about the alignment of the guys currently in the system. Ortiz and Gunnar are better defensive players at the position. To state that Holliday isn't as strong of a defender isn't so much an indictment on him and his limitations as much as it simply that the other guys are in fact superior defensively. 

I consider Ortiz the best infield defender in the organization (though I really like Arias potential) then I would put Jorge, Gunnar, Westburg, Urias... all in front of Holliday as a defender at SS, probably in that order though I might be convinced to swap Gunnar and Jorge based off of Gunnar's improvement and Jorge's decline.

Holliday is the best pure hitter that I've ever seen from an Oriole prospect. I think he could hit .300 as a 19 year old. I really do. He is that good as a hitter. He's just not going to be a good defender as a SS and won't be their best option for the position if they have the other guys in the system. Again, that's less of a knock on Holliday and more of an appreciation for good Gunnar and Ortiz are as defenders. 

[Just Regular]

Today's Rangers with Seager and Semien maybe resemble how the Orioles will look assuming Jordan Westburg becomes a Ben Zobrist or Chris Taylor type rover.

Its good news this year Gunnar has often looked like a plus SS.     Coming up the Minors, with them playing him off SS a lot, I was skeptical if they truly considered him an everyday big leaguer there.

Possession being 9/10ths of the law, it may be Gunnar being a couple years older than Holliday gives him an edge for the longer term.

If Mayo can cover 3B early on, Mayo-Gunnar-Holliday may be an impenetrable first string even for fine players like Westburg and Ortiz.

[Sports Guy]

Westburg and Ortiz aren’t going to both be here long term unless no other team really values them. 

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure..I have zero doubt that Holliday was drafted to be the SS by 2025 at the latest.

At that time, it was trending towards Gunnar not being a SS.  If Gunnar improves to the point where he is an elite SS AND isn’t outgrowing the position, maybe that causes a change. I have pushed back against that but maybe Gunnar is the one guy that changes things..well that and if Holliday himself doesn’t do what’s needed to improve. Honestly, that’s an aspect of things that I have overlooked and not giving much thought to and that is wrong on my part. He has to work on things and sometimes defense isn’t the fun stuff to work on.

Now, Gunnar looks really good at SS but not all the defensive stats love him there. It’s not like he’s defintively elite across the board.  He’s not there yet. Will he get there? How much bigger will he get?  
 

If we look at how much Gunnar has improved at SS this year, playing half of the season as a 21 year old, playing half of the season as a 3B, it's pretty remarkable that he has progressed as much as he has. Prior to the season I had both of Joey and Jorge ahead of Gunnar as a defender but I think that he's right there with both of those guys and I would probably put him ahead of Jorge.

Gunnar (8 DRS) currently ranks 7th while having played only 432 innings at SS this year. The guys that are ahead of him:

Franco 948 innings (17 DRS)

Swanson 1046 innings (15 DRS)

Volpe 1127 innings (14 DRS)

Rojas 782 innings (11 DRS)

Lindor 1132 innings 11 (DRS)

Tovar 1099 innings (9 DRS)

Gunnar's DRS pace (had he played equal innings to Lindor this year) would be 21.. he would be four DRS better than Wander Franco. 

UZR and OAA both have Gunnar at exactly 0, which I find strange but not completely unexpected because of how they're measured. For reference, Jorge's OAA is at 2 but I don't think he's played that well there. I don't think he's played as well as Gunnar at SS this year. 

Again, what I have been stating about Holliday and Gunnar and the rest of the SS in the system is that Holliday is not going to be the best defensive option at the position.