Cade Povich 2023

[btdart20]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Some interesting numbers:

 

 The Hoodie!  Channeling his inner Belichick/Beelzebub!  

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Now he just needs to show some consistency.  

Completely this!  The upside for a TOR certainly flashes.  

[ChosenOne21]

The fact he has those ERA numbers with a BABIP that high is astounding

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 The Hoodie!  Channeling his inner Belichick/Beelzebub!  

Completely this!  The upside for a TOR certainly flashes.  

I don't think TOR is a reasonable thing to dream on.

Not with a 1.352 WHIP and 4BB/9 as a 23 year old in AA.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think TOR is a reasonable thing to dream on.

Not with a 1.352 WHIP and 4BB/9 as a 23 year old in AA.

Yea, the walks are the issue here. Even if some of the rate stats really like him, you can’t have that many walks, especially at his age.

[btdart20]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think TOR is a reasonable thing to dream on.

Not with a 1.352 WHIP and 4BB/9 as a 23 year old in AA.

That's fair/reasonable.  But there's no doubt in my mind that he flashes TOR upside.  

13.67 K9 - 4.0 BB9 = 9.67 K9-BB9.  That's better than some TORs in today's game.  23 y/o isn't unusually old for AA, especially for pitchers.

McClanahan (LHP) had a 7.36 K9-BB9 with a 4.12 FIP and 2.91 xFIP in AA (age 22).  1.96 WHIP.

Burnes has a 6.72 K9-BB9 with a 2.23 FIP and a 2.76 xFIP in AA (age 22).  1.00 WHIP.

Rodon (LHP) never was in AA.  But his career MiLB BB9 was greater that 4.  1.37 WHIP.

Not saying he'll be McClanahan, Burnes, or Rodon by any stretch, just providing a known benchmark.  Stat-wise, he's not far off of those guys except for consistency.

[interloper]

I love me some Povich, and this outing was great to see.

However, Zimmermann also just pitched a complete game shutout for Norfolk. 

We need to see Povich repeat a few outings like this. 

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, interloper said:

I love me some Povich, and this outing was great to see.

However, Zimmermann also just pitched a complete game shutout for Norfolk. 

We need to see Povich repeat a few outings like this. 

I think Povich has a lot of upside.  When he’s on his game, he dominates and misses a ton of bats.  It’s just that when he doesn’t dominate, he struggles.  There’s no real in between.  And, he dominates half the time at most.   So, it’s about consistency and doing a better job of managing games where he’s not firing on all cylinders. 

[Frobby]

 

[emmett16]

On 6/16/2023 at 10:25 AM, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think TOR is a reasonable thing to dream on.

Not with a 1.352 WHIP and 4BB/9 as a 23 year old in AA.

Randy Johnson went 1.39 5.72/9 as a 25 yo in AAA.  Trimmed it to 1.22 4.5/9 as a 26 yo before his MLB promotion.  
 

Not suggesting likely but by no means outside the realm of possibility.  How likely is it to get a true ace regardless?  
 

Johnson’s best MiLB k/9 rate was 8.8k/9. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by emmett16

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Randy Johnson went 1.39 5.72/9 as a 25 yo in AAA.  Trimmed it to 1.22 4.5/9 as a 26 yo before his MLB promotion.  
 

Not suggesting likely but by no means outside the realm of possibility.  How likely is it to get a true ace regardless?  
 

Johnsksn best MiLB k/9 rate was 8.8k/9. 

Because Tom House is the GOAT

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Randy Johnson went 1.39 5.72/9 as a 25 yo in AAA.  Trimmed it to 1.22 4.5/9 as a 26 yo before his MLB promotion.  
 

Not suggesting likely but by no means outside the realm of possibility.  How likely is it to get a true ace regardless?  
 

Johnsksn best MiLB k/9 rate was 8.8k/9. 

First off a quick peek shows that Johnson had a K rate at or over 10 in both 86 and 87.

Secondly I question comparing minor league K rates between now and 35 years ago.

Did I say anything was outside the real of possibility?

I said it isn't a reasonable thing to dream on.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[emmett16]

Your correct.  I looked at wrong column for  86/87.

Thats fair.  

Suppose not. 

I would say a tall lefty who can spin it like Povich and who had shown dominant stuff  would be a reasonable guy to dream on.  
 

 

[Tony-OH]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:24 PM, connja said:

7ip, 1 hit, 0 bb's, 13k's 0ER

Wowza.

These are the kinds of nights that gives us a glimpse of his potential. When he's throwing strikes, he's absolutely dominant. He just needs to work on consistency like most young pitchers. The upside is very high on Povich but his floor is a dominant left-handed reliever, but unlike Hall, I believe he has a legitimate chance of sticking as a starter. 

The more his lower half fills out the longer he will be able to go more consistently. 

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off a quick peek shows that Johnson had a K rate at or over 10 in both 86 and 87.

Secondly I question comparing minor league K rates between now and 35 years ago.

Did I say anything was outside the real of possibility?

I said it isn't a reasonable thing to dream on.

I think a lot of this is word play and definitions.

At the end of the day, Povich has TOR stuff when he's on and there's a real possibility his velocity will continue to gain as his lower half fills out. But, his inconsistencies have held him back a bit and until he can figure out a way to limit them, he's got more likelihood of a mid-rotation starter. But he still has hoops to get through to get there as well. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think a lot of this is word play and definitions.

At the end of the day, Povich has TOR stuff when he's on and there's a real possibility his velocity will continue to gain as his lower half fills out. But, his inconsistencies have held him back a bit and until he can figure out a way to limit them, he's got more likelihood of a mid-rotation starter. But he still has hoops to get through to get there as well. 

He’s one of the more inconsistent pitching prospects we have.  He’s literally never had two really good starts in a row at Bowie, though his recent streak of three bad games in a row was really the first time he had more than one bad outing consecutively.  I’ll certainly be watching to see how he does this week following last week’s gem.