Runner on 3B, less than 2 out, who do you want to see up?

[Frobby]

So far this year, with a runner on 3B and less than two out, the Orioles are getting the runner home 50% of the time, just ahead of the league average 49.9%.   So who do you like seeing up in those situations?

The numbers to date (obviously, SSS) might surprise you.  Ramon Urias leads the team at 71.4% (5/7), followed by Cedric Mullins 64.3% (9/14), Jorge Mateo 60% (6/10), and Adam Frazier 60% (3/5).  

Towards the bottom of the list (5+ chances): Ryan Mountcastle 36.4% (4/11) and Adley Rutschman 40% (4/10).   I was very surprised to see Adley there, since he doesn’t strike out much and has a very controlled swing.  Interestingly, last year Adley was top of the list at 73.7% (14/19) and Mountcastle was second at 68.8% (22/32). 

Whst I take away from this is these samples are very small and probably mean very little.   But if you just asked me, who would I like up in that situation, I’d still be riding with Adley.   I also like Urias, Mullins and even Frazier there.  

 

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

So far this year, with a runner on 3B and less than two out, the Orioles are getting the runner home 50% of the time, just ahead of the league average 49.9%.   So who do you like seeing up in those situations?

The numbers to date (obviously, SSS) might surprise you.  Ramon Urias leads the team at 71.4% (5/7), followed by Cedric Mullins 64.3% (9/14), Jorge Mateo 60% (6/10), and Adam Frazier 60% (3/5).  

Towards the bottom of the list (5+ chances): Ryan Mountcastle 36.4% (4/11) and Adley Rutschman 40% (4/10).   I was very surprised to see Adley there, since he doesn’t strike out much and has a very controlled swing.  Interestingly, last year Adley was top of the list at 73.7% (14/19) and Mountcastle was second at 68.8% (22/32). 

Whst I take away from this is these samples are very small and probably mean very little.   But if you just asked me, who would I like up in that situation, I’d still be riding with Adley.   I also like Urias, Mullins and even Frazier there.  

 

I'd definitely take Adley in that circumstance. Urias is my second choice.

 

I think the numbers for Adley will normalize because he's too good of a batter. 

[Mooreisbetter27]

For Adley, of the 6 times  he didn't get the runner home, does that account for walks?

[emmett16]

I’ll take Adley tomorrow, next month, and on 9/30 as well  

I agree with your next two as well, Urias & Frazier, if we are talking about today.  I imagine that Gunnar will be in that group of 3 by end of season and likely my #2 and maybe #1 choice.  

[glenn__davis]

Honestly when it comes to any sort of situational hitting I probably want Frazier.  I hated the signing at the time and still do, but I gotta give him credit, he seems to come up with the big AB at just the right time some time and isn't going to chase some pitch a foot out of the strike zone.

[Sports Guy]

The one thing Frazier does well is make contact. If they are conceding the run, I’m good with him being up. If he has to hit a sac fly to get someone in, im not really interested in him being up.

I will take guys with good approaches, even if they are struggling now. Good approaches will always end up positive in the end.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

For Adley, of the 6 times  he didn't get the runner home, does that account for walks?

I just checked this out.  If you walk with a runner on 3rd and don’t force him home, that counts as “failing” to get the runner in from 3B.   Kind of silly, but there it is.  Of Adley’s 10 PA with a runner on 3B, he walked five times.  So really, he’s only swung the bat in five.  Looks to me like he had one bases loaded walk, two sac flies, and one RBI grounder to account for the four times he’s brought the runner home.  He doesn’t have any hits in those situations yet.  

[Mooreisbetter27]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just checked this out.  If you walk with a runner on 3rd and don’t force him home, that counts as “failing” to get the runner in from 3B.   Kind of silly, but there it is.  Of Adley’s 10 PA with a runner on 3B, he walked five times.  So really, he’s only swung the bat in five.  Looks to me like he had one bases loaded walk, two sac flies, and one RBI grounder to account for the four times he’s brought the runner home.  He doesn’t have any hits in those situations yet.  

Okay that's what I was looking for.  Because normally I'd automatically say Adley.  But if it's just third or second and third, it seems like he tends to get pitched around and doesn't get to bat.  Bases loaded, give me Adley every time.  Otherwise I'd say either Urias or Frazier as well. 

[Sanfran327]

Put me down for Rutschman 1 and Urias 2. Both are good at putting the bat on the ball with enough authority to get the desired depth to score the runner. I don't care too much about what it looks like to this point, that would be my answer over 162.

[DirtyBird]

Santander

[Aristotelian]

Problem with Adley, if there is an open base in this situation they will give him nothing to hit. Of course I would still want him up.

Top 3 K%: McKenna, Gunnar, Stowers.

Bottom 3 K%: Frazier, McCann, Rutschman. If you ignore McCann, next guy is Cedric. 

[Yossarian]

Mullins.  Isn't he hitting over .400 with runners in scoring positron this year?  For me it's Mullins, hands down. 

[Yossarian]

Just now, Yossarian said:

Mullins.  Isn't he hitting over .400 with runners in scoring positron this year?  For me it's Mullins, hands down. 

Position, not positron.  I don't know why my phone thinks I want to write positron.  I can't think of the last sentence in which I have written positron in purpose. 

[wildcard]

Frank or Eddie

Edited May 8, 2023 by wildcard

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

Frank

From the grave!