Thoughts on the Last Two Games

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Why does it look like that?  Because he has had a good 2 weeks?

Did it look that way when his OpS was under 700, which it has been for most of the season?

 

Of course it looked worse when he wasn't hitting as well. However, his current OPS is reflective of his entire season, not just the last two weeks. I still think it was a bad signing but more because of resource allocation than Frazier's performance. His overall performance has been very good inclusive of his bad weeks as well as good weeks.  

[Mr-splash]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They would have lost even more than that, what with the batting out of order from only having the eight players.

He had 2 games of massive clutch hits.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

He had 2 games of massive clutch hits.

Sure?

And if he hadn't been in the game someone else would have been.

If you want to say something like Frazier played a huge role in two of the wins with his MASSIVE CLUTCH hits that would be fine.

But you can't say with any actual certainty what would have happened if the Orioles had played someone other than Frazier.

[Mr-splash]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure?

And if he hadn't been in the game someone else would have been.

If you want to say something like Frazier played a huge role in two of the wins with his MASSIVE CLUTCH hits that would be fine.

But you can't say with any actual certainty what would have happened if the Orioles had played someone other than Frazier.

True 

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Meh.  It is two games I am not gonna worry or get two exited about two games at any point in the season.  We were on pace to win 108 games coming into this series which even the most optimistic fan would seem crazy.  There was a thread started about this tough 25 game stretch and pretty much everyone said that playing around .500 would be accomplishment, we are 12-9 with 4 games left.  The best teams have poor stretches during the season and our good teams recently had 5+ game losing streaks.  
 

The comment that we need to make improvements because other teams will although true they will there is 0% chance we do nothing to try improve this team.  That may mean we make a big trade, a few small trades, or a trade and some promotions to major league team.  There is too many guys in the organization that are major league ready that we need to either trade or see what they can do.  The organization is not going to just leave guys like Westburg, Ortiz, and Cowser down in AAA all season they will either be brought up to improve team full time or a trade will be made with them or other guys to improve the team.  

This team right now can compete with pretty much everyone so if they get in the playoffs they can still make a good run because as people have said they have streaky guys like all teams really.  Mullins has shown he can carry an offense at times, Mountcastle can get  as hot as anyone at times as can Santander.  In the playoffs it comes down to can you make the big outs when runners are on and how you can get runners in to score when you get them on.  Yesterday was an example of that as the 2nd inning we got a hit baseman, and two hits in 4 batters and didn’t score.  A run or two in that inning changes the entire complexion of game.  

I believe that the odds are really low that this team can win 3 series in the AL “as is” with this rotation. I’m not sure that there is even a projectable series/opponent that we would be favored.

We can win regular season games because of our depth. But depth becomes much less important in short series. Then it’s about the talent, in particular high end talent. 

Take a look at the Rangers rotation (when they get deGrom back), NY rotation (when they get Rodon back), HOU rotation, MIN rotation. These teams are all MUCH better equipped to lineup in a short series with superior starting pitching to ours.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

4. We are two players short of a real contender to go deep into the playoffs: a big bat that isn't streaky and a 1 or 2 pitcher that can be counted on. We can make the playoffs as we are now, but we won't go far. Remember, all of the other contenders are going to improve their team at the trade deadline. We gotta keep up if we really want to win this season. This is especially important with Means not coming back and Grayson's performance. 

Who is the elusive MOOB target that would be an upgrade for us? I'm just not seeing a guy on a non-contender who would be a great fit. Soler? 

[now]

One way to sum up the gist of this thread is that the team has improved more from a higher floor than a higher ceiling. I mean, the higher ceiling is still there for a few (Henderson, Adley, Bradish, GRod) but it seems that the team is built by filling holes more than by raising peaks. Which makes sense from a small market perspective, and maybe also an analytical best-chance perspective. It might also be a better way to prevent long losing streaks. Another manifestation of the same approach would be a lineup with patient contact hitters vs. all-or-nothing big power bats.

[owknows]

Thoughts on the last two games....

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Who is the elusive MOOB target that would be an upgrade for us? I'm just not seeing a guy on a non-contender who would be a great fit. Soler? 

My first call is to see how much a rental of Ohtani would cost

[spiritof66]

Most contending teams have a fear-inducing slugger in their lineup (traditionally a #3 or #4 hitter, now often batting second). A guy whom opponents focus on, want to keep the bases empty for, and pitch around or walk intentionally in some high-leverage situations. They are not necessarily the best hitters on their teams, though many of them are. They're the guys you worry about turning the game around with their timely extra-base power, even if they're not on a hot streak. They used to be called big boppers (not to be confused with the Big Boppers, Lee May and J.P. Richardson), but I haven't heard that term much recently.

You can generate a list of them just by looking at the current season's SLG and OPS leaders, though most guys attain that status through consistent high production over a few years. Judge, Ohtani/Trout, Devers, Acuna, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Diaz/Arozarena, Soto/Tatis/Machado, Guriel, Tellez. 

The Orioles don't have a guy like that. Maybe Santander when he's on a hot streak, or Hays or Mountcastle the same. But they would be marginal members of the club, even when hot. I'm guessing Oriole management thought that either or both of Henderson and Rutschman would grow into this role by, say, the end of this season or 2024. That may happen, but right now it's hard to see either one as more than a productive, everyday major leaguer. Maybe Cowser or Westburg or Kjerstad will get there, but it's hard to become a feared major league slugger while playing in Norfolk or Bowie. 

The Orioles' offense is, and it looks like it will continue to be, based on having a solid lineup with pretty good power spread around it and lacking extreme weak spots (other than Mateo this month ad McCann most of the time), with a wide variety of guys serving as offensive star of a victory. That's a lineup and an approach that are fun to watch, and it has the advantage of not being hurt too badly by an injury or night off for a dominant slugger.  But it can it get to and succeed in the playoffs? I think that's difficult when coupled with a well-below-average starting staff whose consensus most "talented" (whatever that means) piece has flopped and been sent down. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

My first call is to see how much a rental of Ohtani would cost

The Angels are 2.5 games out of a wildcard.  As long as they have a chance he’s not even available.

[Mr-splash]

1 hour ago, now said:

One way to sum up the gist of this thread is that the team has improved more from a higher floor than a higher ceiling. I mean, the higher ceiling is still there for a few (Henderson, Adley, Bradish, GRod) but it seems that the team is built by filling holes more than by raising peaks. Which makes sense from a small market perspective, and maybe also an analytical best-chance perspective. It might also be a better way to prevent long losing streaks. Another manifestation of the same approach would be a lineup with patient contact hitters vs. all-or-nothing big power bats.

Rodriguez has a lower ceiling than what's been advertised. Command can only be improved so much. Its not like hes 20 years old. His fastball doesnt have a ton of life and he doesn't have a 3rd pitch.

 

Henderson has the most room to grow. Hes young, has plate discipline and has the body to hit for power down the road. 

 

Adley also has potentially another gear to reach if he can start hammering mistakes more often.

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Who is the elusive MOOB target that would be an upgrade for us? I'm just not seeing a guy on a non-contender who would be a great fit. Soler? 

I have a feeling that the bat we’re looking for is already here. It could be Westburg, Cowser, or even Kjerstad if they’re willing to be aggressive enough. It could be Mullins if he was moved to a spot in the lineup where he’ll be hitting with runners on more often. Hell, it could be Mountcastle if he’d sacrifice a lamb or two to get out his exorbitant “unlucky” streak. 
I don’t think there is a bat out there that is available that will fill the role. I hate to say it but they’re either going to win with who they have, or they won’t. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

The Angels are 2.5 games out of a wildcard.  As long as they have a chance he’s not even available.

Not that many teams out of this time of year.  Royals, A's.  Maybe the Nats and Rockies.  Not much there.

[Mr-splash]

5 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Most contending teams have a fear-inducing slugger in their lineup (traditionally a #3 or #4 hitter, now often batting second). A guy whom opponents focus on, want to keep the bases empty for, and pitch around or walk intentionally in some high-leverage situations. They are not necessarily the best hitters on their teams, though many of them are. They're the guys you worry about turning the game around with their timely extra-base power, even if they're not on a hot streak. They used to be called big boppers (not to be confused with the Big Boppers, Lee May and J.P. Richardson), but I haven't heard that term much recently.

You can generate a list of them just by looking at the current season's SLG and OPS leaders, though most guys attain that status through consistent high production over a few years. Judge, Ohtani/Trout, Devers, Acuna, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Diaz/Arozarena, Soto/Tatis/Machado, Guriel, Tellez. 

The Orioles don't have a guy like that. Maybe Santander when he's on a hot streak, or Hays or Mountcastle the same. But they would be marginal members of the club, even when hot. I'm guessing Oriole management thought that either or both of Henderson and Rutschman would grow into this role by, say, the end of this season or 2024. That may happen, but right now it's hard to see either one as more than a productive, everyday major leaguer. Maybe Cowser or Westburg or Kjerstad will get there, but it's hard to become a feared major league slugger while playing in Norfolk or Bowie. 

The Orioles' offense is, and it looks like it will continue to be, based on having a solid lineup with pretty good power spread around it and lacking extreme weak spots (other than Mateo this month ad McCann most of the time), with a wide variety of guys serving as offensive star of a victory. That's a lineup and an approach that are fun to watch, and it has the advantage of not being hurt too badly by an injury or night off for a dominant slugger.  But it can it get to and succeed in the playoffs? I think that's difficult when coupled with a well-below-average starting staff whose consensus most "talented" (whatever that means) piece has flopped and been sent down. 

Machado wasnt a very disciplined hitter. But he put the fear of God in pitchers when he came to plate with men on. There is nobody on this team who puts that kind of fear into an opposing pitcher.