Moves in the near term

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I disagree as replacing .300 ops Mateo with a .700+ bat is a huge difference.  

But of course Mateo’s OPS is .665, not .300. I’m not a huge fan of Mateo and am not trying to rally others to his defense, but the amount of cherry picking in this thread is pretty amazing. Let’s be honest and look at what the players have done for the team as well as what they have not done. 

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

But of course Mateo’s OPS is .665, not .300. I’m not a huge fan of Mateo and am not trying to rally others to his defense, but the amount of cherry picking in this thread is pretty amazing. Let’s be honest and look at what the players have done for the team as well as what they have not done. 

I had to look that up. Wow, that is really bad. I knew he was terrible in May but I did not realize the extent. I wonder how common it is for an MLB player to go .316 for a full month. 

[Ohfan67]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I had to look that up. Wow, that is really bad. I knew he was terrible in May but I did not realize the extent. I wonder how common it is for an MLB player to go .316 for a full month. 

It’s very rare. I think it’s even rarer that we are two months into the season and Mateo has accumulated 1 WAR and is currently the fifth most valuable player on the team. That’s how good he was in April and how his defense has retained value even when his hitting stunk. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Ohfan67

[Billy F-Face3]

26 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

But of course Mateo’s OPS is .665, not .300. I’m not a huge fan of Mateo and am not trying to rally others to his defense, but the amount of cherry picking in this thread is pretty amazing. Let’s be honest and look at what the players have done for the team as well as what they have not done. 

Cherry picking stats is what OH fans do best!

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

But of course Mateo’s OPS is .665, not .300. I’m not a huge fan of Mateo and am not trying to rally others to his defense, but the amount of cherry picking in this thread is pretty amazing. Let’s be honest and look at what the players have done for the team as well as what they have not done. 

Sure,  he carried us for the first month,  but ever since May,  he has been under or around .300 ops.  Heck,  he was over 1.000, but has been so bad it's now .665 over all and falling fast.  We simply can't have such a void in the lineup every day.   As much as he helped in April, he's hurting us ever since.  At some point he HAS to either stop playing every day or start hitting again.   The longer this goes on the less I'm hopeful for the second one happening.   Looking over the past 2 years,  he's had two five week spells or so when he's been on FIRE.  Otherwise he's been a below average to bad hitter.  At this point it's more cherry picking to say he's good than to say he's bad.   

[now]

7 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Sure,  he carried us for the first month,  but ever since May,  he has been under or around .300 ops.  Heck,  he was over 1.000, but has been so bad it's now .665 over all and falling fast.  We simply can't have such a void in the lineup every day.   As much as he helped in April, he's hurting us ever since.  At some point he HAS to either stop playing every day or start hitting again.   The longer this goes on the less I'm hopeful for the second one happening.   Looking over the past 2 years,  he's had two five week spells or so when he's been on FIRE.  Otherwise he's been a below average to bad hitter.  At this point it's more cherry picking to say he's good than to say he's bad.   

With respect, the guy had two solid hits today and has been hitting the ball hard to all fields lately (with not much to show for it). Yes, he looks bad on sliders at his shoes at times, but he appears to be finding a good stroke again, for about the past week or two.

Edited June 5, 2023 by now

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Sure,  he carried us for the first month,  but ever since May,  he has been under or around .300 ops.  Heck,  he was over 1.000, but has been so bad it's now .665 over all and falling fast.  We simply can't have such a void in the lineup every day.   As much as he helped in April, he's hurting us ever since.  At some point he HAS to either stop playing every day or start hitting again.   The longer this goes on the less I'm hopeful for the second one happening.   Looking over the past 2 years,  he's had two five week spells or so when he's been on FIRE.  Otherwise he's been a below average to bad hitter.  At this point it's more cherry picking to say he's good than to say he's bad.   

He’s 5 for his last 17 with two of those hits being extra base hits. So maybe he is starting to come out of the May swoon? 

[Ohfan67]

17 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Sure,  he carried us for the first month,  but ever since May,  he has been under or around .300 ops.  Heck,  he was over 1.000, but has been so bad it's now .665 over all and falling fast.  We simply can't have such a void in the lineup every day.   As much as he helped in April, he's hurting us ever since.  At some point he HAS to either stop playing every day or start hitting again.   The longer this goes on the less I'm hopeful for the second one happening.   Looking over the past 2 years,  he's had two five week spells or so when he's been on FIRE.  Otherwise he's been a below average to bad hitter.  At this point it's more cherry picking to say he's good than to say he's bad.   

He has the fifth highest WAR of all the positional players. Sure, if he doesn’t hit better in the future eventually he will get benched. But overall he’s been a positive contributor this season even with his horrible month at the plate. He’s a very weird player and I’m not a giant fan. But I don’t like when some posters pretend that he has not contributed to the success of the team so far. And of course he could have a wildly positive streak or two left in him this year. 

[forphase1]

3 minutes ago, now said:

With respect, the guy had two solid hits today and has been hitting the ball hard to all fields lately (with not much to show for it). Yes, he looks bad on sliders at his shoes at times, but he appears to be finding a good stroke again, for about the past week or two.

Don't misunderstand me, I'd love to Mateo to regain his form from his really hot spell last year or the way he was earlier this year.  I'd even be happy if he could become a batter who consistently was a .700 or so OPS player.  That's a TON of value to the Os with that defense, and would be a great trade chip once Holiday is ready to take over.  But a player who is .950 one month then .300 OPS the next 6 weeks is of limited value to me.  As great as those highs are, I just can't live with the incredible lows.  Give me two players who end up with the same yearly OPS, but one is roughly within 100 points of his yearly average every month or so is MUCH preferred versus one with a 500 point variation from month to month.  Others may disagree, but I'd rather have the consistency that I can count on month by month versus hoping to catch lightening in the bottle for a 4-5 weeks run then ice cold for the next 4-5 weeks while we hope and pray for another lightening in the bottle to hit.  It's the same reason I'm down on Mountcastle so much, the huge swings in performance and inconsistencies are just more than I like.  I know in baseball all players ebb and flow, I get that.  Hot and cold streaks happen for all players.  But I prefer manageable highs and lows versus the shooting to the top of the mountain for a month then falling to the bottom of the crater the following month.  

As you noted. his at bats have been  better lately.  His OPS for June is .777, and that I can more than live with, though of course the SSS so far for June is too small to really take much from yet.  A Mateo with a .750+ OPS is very valuable.  A Mateo with a .316 as he had in April isn't worth letting start every day.  

[forphase1]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

He’s 5 for his last 17 with two of those hits being extra base hits. So maybe he is starting to come out of the May swoon? 

I certainly hope so.  If he can just be close to an average hitter (approximately a .725 OPS) that is VERY valuable, and so far for June he's at .777 OPS.  Combine that with his great defense, and I'm very happy with that, and wouldn't be pushing for Ortiz.  Honestly, I'd LOVE for Mateo to prove to be that kind of player so we didn't need to have someone between him and Holiday.   But he has to get more consistent and stop with the ice cold 4-6 week stretches, or else I want Ortiz or someone for the next 1-2 years until Holiday is ready to take over, if he becomes what we expect.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

I certainly hope so.  If he can just be close to an average hitter (approximately a .725 OPS) that is VERY valuable, and so far for June he's at .777 OPS.  Combine that with his great defense, and I'm very happy with that, and wouldn't be pushing for Ortiz.  Honestly, I'd LOVE for Mateo to prove to be that kind of player so we didn't need to have someone between him and Holiday.   But he has to get more consistent and stop with the ice cold 4-6 week stretches, or else I want Ortiz or someone for the next 1-2 years until Holiday is ready to take over, if he becomes what we expect.

There will be one year at absolute MAX before Holliday takes over. Right now, he will probably be ready by Opening Day of next year. And at the absolute latest mid season. Unless there is a serious injury that he suffers, the is no way that he takes 2 more years to arrive at the Bigs. He might be better than all of them right now!

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

There will be one year at absolute MAX before Holliday takes over. Right now, he will probably be ready by Opening Day of next year. And at the absolute latest mid season. Unless there is a serious injury that he suffers, the is no way that he takes 2 more years to arrive at the Bigs. He might be better than all of them right now!

Holiday is 19 and still in single A ball.  I too think he's going to be a superstar, BUT to say it's 1 year at the absolute most before he takes over it a bit of a stretch IMO.  I'd LOVE to see it, but we've all seen players who stalled out in AA or AAA or at least the progress slows down.  Point being I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch in my planning the roster for the next year or two.  Hopefully Holiday is ready to take it over the quickly.  But need to plan on it taking him longer than that too, be it Mateo, Ortiz or whoever.  We need to have the best players and talent holding down the position until Holiday is ready, be in next year or a couple years down the road.  

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Holiday is 19 and still in single A ball.  I too think he's going to be a superstar, BUT to say it's 1 year at the absolute most before he takes over it a bit of a stretch IMO.  I'd LOVE to see it, but we've all seen players who stalled out in AA or AAA or at least the progress slows down.  Point being I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch in my planning the roster for the next year or two.  Hopefully Holiday is ready to take it over the quickly.  But need to plan on it taking him longer than that too, be it Mateo, Ortiz or whoever.  We need to have the best players and talent holding down the position until Holiday is ready, be in next year or a couple years down the road.  

No we have not seen players like Holliday at 19 get on base at a .500 clip at high A and then stall out. I would challenge you to name 5. Also, I challenge to name ONE SINGLE WEAKNESS in the kid’s game. Just ONE. That’s how good he is. I’m not hyping him up. Look at what he’s doing and tell me the other prospects that we have EVER had who have done similar things. Let alone at 19! 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

No we have not seen players like Holliday at 19 get on base at a .500 clip at high A and then stall out. I would challenge you to name 5. Also, I challenge to name ONE SINGLE WEAKNESS in the kid’s game. Just ONE. That’s how good he is. I’m not hyping him up. Look at what he’s doing and tell me the other prospects that we have EVER had who have done similar things. Let alone at 19! 

**Edit** - He’s been in a really cold spell for the last week or so and is still hitting .350!

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

No we have not seen players like Holliday at 19 get on base at a .500 clip at high A and then stall out. I would challenge you to name 5. Also, I challenge to name ONE SINGLE WEAKNESS in the kid’s game. Just ONE. That’s how good he is. I’m not hyping him up. Look at what he’s doing and tell me the other prospects that we have EVER had who have done similar things. Let alone at 19! 

Oh, I'm not knocking him at all, don't get me wrong.  Nor can I name a single weakness that's been exposed in his game TO THIS POINT.  But again, he hasn't faced anything more than single A competition.  Hs's been phenomenal, and I'm super excited to see his progression.  I hope he is our starting SS come next year.  But I'm not ready to start carving his HOF bust quite yet.