Bench Mountcastle, start O’Hearn

[sportsfan8703]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It doesn’t matter if he’s demoted or not.  He had 2.105 days of service time coming into this year and already has earned 90+ days of service time, so he’ll be Arb 1 next year.   

He’s really been awful in the first half, but I wouldn’t foreclose the possibility that he gets back to the majors at some point this year and finishes strong.  I just don’t think we automatically recall him when his rehab time is up.  Right now he has a .597 OPS in 49 PA at Norfolk, on a team where everyone is hitting the snot out of the ball.  For me, he stays down until he’s putting up the kind of numbers you expect when a major leaguer goes to AAA.  He’s done a bit better over the last 6 games, so we’ll see.  
 

Yup. Mountcastle is struggling to OPS higher than Maverick Handley and Robbie Glenndening. In AAA. By 200+ points. 
 

However, Mountcastle is 1 year arb. If there is room for him on the roster then he might be worth the gamble. But he’s got to prove himself in AAA before he gets anything. 
 

We probably should’ve sent Mountcastle to the FCL, and let him completely rethink his hitting. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[MurphDogg]

O'Hearn doesn't hit lefties at all. They have been using Urias at first against lefties, but despite being right handed, he also doesn't hit lefties at all. 

I see an O'Hearn / Mountcastle platoon for the rest of the season, starting after the All Star Break. 

Not sure who goes down when Mountcastle comes back (could be Mateo dfa'd with Westburg and Henderson covering shortstop with Urias in an emergency). I don't think either can be counted on as the first baseman next season. Hopefully Kjerstad can get more comfortable at first in the offseason.

Edited July 6, 2023 by MurphDogg

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm arguing that I don't want to see him in an Orioles uniform for the rest of the season.  All of the voices in my head are in concert with that.

I thought most of them were singing Nickleback?

[Filmstudy]

I don't want to be negative with how important O'Hearn is to the Orioles lineup right now, but I can't think of too many instances where a 30-year old (July 26) suddenly learns to hit the way he is doing now.  In addition, he's not walking, which is probably going to catch up to him when pitchers start challenging him less in the zone.  I'd love to have him be the exception to the rule.

He had an 83 OPS+ in 1071 ABs prior to this season and is at 139 now.

So while I think a platoon of Mountcastle is appropriate, I think it's more likely Kjerstad is the guy with whom Mounty will eventually be paired and that might come as early as late 2023.

Looking at the lineup right now.  The Orioles seem very prone to LH starters and I think they may still need a big RH bat at the deadline (maybe the Cards would look to dump Goldschmidt's salary without requiring the return of a lot of prospect capital?).

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought most of them were singing Nickleback?

Motorhead. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I don't want to be negative with how important O'Hearn is to the Orioles lineup right now, but I can't think of too many instances where a 30-year old (July 26) suddenly learns to hit the way he is doing now.  In addition, he's not walking, which is probably going to catch up to him when pitchers start challenging him less in the zone.  I'd love to have him be the exception to the rule.

He had an 83 OPS+ in 1071 ABs prior to this season and is at 139 now.

So while I think a platoon of Mountcastle is appropriate, I think it's more likely Kjerstad is the guy with whom Mounty will eventually be paired and that might come as early as late 2023.

Looking at the lineup right now.  The Orioles seem very prone to LH starters and I think they may still need a big RH bat at the deadline (maybe the Cards would look to dump Goldschmidt's salary without requiring the return of a lot of prospect capital?).

 

 

St Louis doesn’t need to dump PG. He will have suitors. 
 

I agree with you about ROH but I wouldn’t be surprised if he can be a solid platoon guy for the rest of the year. The shift going away has helped him I think.

[Aristotelian]

19 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

O'Hearn doesn't hit lefties at all. They have been using Urias at first against lefties, but despite being right handed, he also doesn't hit lefties at all. 

I see an O'Hearn / Mountcastle platoon for the rest of the season, starting after the All Star Break. 

Not sure who goes down when Mountcastle comes back (could be Mateo dfa'd with Westburg and Henderson covering shortstop with Urias in an emergency). I don't think either can be counted on as the first baseman next season. Hopefully Kjerstad can get more comfortable at first in the offseason.

Now that Cowser is up, Santander is another option at 1B to platoon with O'Hearn. I really don't see a compelling reason for Mountcastle unless he plays his way back. For me that would be 1.000 OPS and/or 6-7% walk rate for a sustained period. And can we really afford a roster spot on a 1B/DH-only vs LHP? I'd rather have two of Mateo, Frazier, and Ortiz. 

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Now look at O'Hearn's career numbers.  Look at how much rope he got in KC.  Look at how he got a contract with the O's for 1.4M after putting up those numbers.

Folks are being ridiculous.

I'm not saying no one would give him a chance for O'Hearn money if the Orioles cut him. There's certainly the potential to be better. But I think it's obvious why people are down on him, and given the choice I'd rather go with O'Hearn. Mounty's approach at the plate seems inconsistent with the organization's philosophy. He might do better in a different organization. But Mounty has been trending down and O'Hearn is trending up (albeit in a small sample size).

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Now that Cowser is up, Santander is another option at 1B to platoon with O'Hearn. I really don't see a compelling reason for Mountcastle unless he plays his way back. For me that would be 1.000 OPS and/or 6-7% walk rate for a sustained period. And can we really afford a roster spot on a 1B/DH-only vs LHP? I'd rather have two of Mateo, Frazier, and Ortiz. 

Thank you.  No need to platoon O'Hearn and Mountcastle when Santander/O'Hearn is an option.

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Thank you.  No need to platoon O'Hearn and Mountcastle when Santander/O'Hearn is an option.

I have no problem with Mountcastle being optioned if he is still scuffling at AAA when his rehab is up, but a Santander/O'Hearn platoon doesn't really solve anything in the medium term, because it still puts one of O'Hearn, Hicks, Urias, Mateo or McCann in the lineup against lefties.

I think that O's should do what they can to have McCann start at catcher against lefties rather than righties when Adley gets a partial day off, but Mountcastle is still a better option than those five in my opinion, although I can see the argument that the difference between Mountcastle and a rejuvenated Hicks isn't significant, and doesn't merit Mountcastle having a roster spot.

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I have no problem with Mountcastle being optioned if he is still scuffling at AAA when his rehab is up, but a Santander/O'Hearn platoon doesn't really solve anything in the medium term, because it still puts one of O'Hearn, Hicks, Urias, Mateo or McCann in the lineup against lefties.

I think that O's should do what they can to have McCann start at catcher against lefties rather than righties when Adley gets a partial day off, but Mountcastle is still a better option than those five in my opinion, although I can see the argument that the difference between Mountcastle and a rejuvenated Hicks isn't significant, and doesn't merit Mountcastle having a roster spot.

I'm not sure if I follow.

A lefty starts, O'Hearn is on the bench.  Santander at 1B.  He's got an .893 OPS against lefties this year.  

Outfield:  Hays, Mullins, Cowser.  I suppose then you'd have to put Hicks at DH which is your argument but he's got a career OPS against lefties of .744 and this year he's at .785.  

Mountcastle's OPS against lefties this year is 1.017, up from his career OPS against lefties of .811.  I'm not sure how long that'll last, especially after the vertigo.

I get all the reasons why people would want to platoon him at 1B, I just think our roster is overall better without him.

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

St Louis doesn’t need to dump PG. He will have suitors. 
 

I agree with you about ROH but I wouldn’t be surprised if he can be a solid platoon guy for the rest of the year. The shift going away has helped him I think.

Another thing that people are discounting is that KC is probably the worst player development org in baseball.  I’m not saying throw out 1,000 PA of 83 OPS+ but it can be taken with a tiny grain of salt.  It seems like the Orioles have fixed some things. 

[Moose Milligan]

I think getting rid of the shift might have helped O'Hearn.  But I think he's a good all fields hitter and he can hit to the opposite field with some power.  His spray chart shows pull tendencies but he does use a lot of the field.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-o-hearn-656811?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

 

[Baltimorecuse]

Mountcastle is a rally killer in Norfolk.  He stays in the conversation for reasons I don't get.  

Rumor has it the O's hitting coaches fixed O'Hearn's swing.  He can stay right at first as far as this fan is concerned.  He'll be a "Cinderella" story in the World Series when we take Atlanta in six.  

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Mountcastle is a rally killer in Norfolk.  He stays in the conversation for reasons I don't get.  

Rumor has it the O's hitting coaches fixed O'Hearn's swing.  He can stay right at first as far as this fan is concerned.  He'll be a "Cinderella" story in the World Series when we take Atlanta in six.  

I'm not all in on O'Hearn just yet, however he's making it hard not to be a believer.  

Let's keep in mind that the O's hitting coaches allegedly fixed Mateo and we've all seen how that's played out.  Maybe O'Hearn doesn't regress to what he was, maybe he does.  

At the very least, he's earned the right to keep playing so we can find out.