And so itbegins

[Safelykept]

40 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

Adley sucks guys. This team blows. What a waste of a season. 41-24 record. I hate this team.

Wow Adley the problem with this team

[ChosenOne21]

He's had a poor (by his standards) April, a great May, and a bad June. He's got what, one and one-third seasons of MLB time and he's 25? Maybe it's a little early to declare "what he is" although I admit he hasn't been everything we hoped and dreamed for this year

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Except the numbers this year don’t bear out that he is elite in those categories.

I still wonder if he is similar to what Markakis (and probably most hitters) and that he is sacrificing power to try to get on base as the #2 hitter.

People say they would rather have the OBP. That’s wrong in that you can have both but I’ll take the extra 50 points in slugging if it means sacrificing 20 points in OBP.

Gunnar is proving your point about the OBP/SLG trademark off here.  Does anyone want to go back to the May 5 version of Gunnar who had a .371 OBP, compared to the current .349 version?  I don’t think so.

That said, I wouldn’t be too worried about Adley yet.  He’s in a bit of a slump, .250/.352/.303 in his last 19 games.  Before that, still batting in the two-spot as he has all year, he was hitting .285/.407/.462.   So, the power drop off is pretty recent and doesn’t appear related to any effort to drive OBP, which actually was better before.  He’s just not hitting that well at the moment.  His overall numbers on the year are solid, but we’re catching him at a low point here.  

[Os4days]

Amazing how some fans expect Adley to be batting .400 at all times with a dinger every other day. Hitting a baseball is arguably the hardest thing in all of sports and players go through struggles and slumps. 
 

Please tell me another catcher you would replace Adley with not just for this year but the next few years. Go ahead I’ll wait ….

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Gunnar is proving your point about the OBP/SLG trademark off here.  Does anyone want to go back to the May 5 version of Gunnar who had a .371 OBP, compared to the current .349 version?  I don’t think so.

That said, I wouldn’t be too worried about Adley yet.  He’s in a bit of a slump, .250/.352/.303 in his last 19 games.  Before that, still batting in the two-spot as he has all year, he was hitting .285/.407/.462.   So, the power drop off is pretty recent and doesn’t appear related to any effort to drive OBP, which actually was better before.  He’s just not hitting that well at the moment.  His overall numbers on the year are solid, but we’re catching him at a low point here.  

It’s not a SSS though. He has 16 extra base hits for the whole year. That’s not the result of a power outage during a slump. 
 

That’s the whole year.  He had like 15 extra base hits in June last year, his first full month in the majors. He has 16 this whole season so far.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not a SSS though. He has 16 extra base hours for the whole year. That’s not the result of a power outage during a slump. 
 

That’s the whole year.  He had like 15 extra base hits in June last year, his first full month in the majors. He has 16 this whole season so far.

Here’s how I see it.  Last year Adley had a .191 ISO.   Up until the recent slump, he had a .177 ISO.   That’s nothing to worry about when you consider that his OBP and BA were both up considerably from last year.   Now, though, the ISO is down to .136, and that certainly would be a bit concerning if it continued.   We’ll see if it does, but I bet it won’t.  

[CHIP]

1 hour ago, Os4days said:

Please tell me another catcher you would replace Adley with not just for this year but the next few years. Go ahead I’ll wait ….

What if we change the name on the back of his jersey from RUTSCHMAN to ADLEY...  and then promote Maverick?... but put the name on the back of his jersey as hAnDLEY.  

Who's gonna know?

[Hallas]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Except the numbers this year don’t bear out that he is elite in those categories.

I still wonder if he is similar to what Markakis (and probably most hitters) and that he is sacrificing power to try to get on base as the #2 hitter.

People say they would rather have the OBP. That’s wrong in that you can have both but I’ll take the extra 50 points in slugging if it means sacrificing 20 points in OBP.

 

Are you saying that his numbers this year are more reflective his his defensive talent level?  He was elite in blocking, framing, and close to elite in throwing last year in terms of pop time.  Him having a defensive slump due to tiredness would explain the dropoff in blocking.  He's still close to elite in throwing (pop time of 1.9 is 9th in the majors and better than last year.)  I have no explanation for his dropoff in framing.  I can't imagine he forgot how to frame.  I've tended to believe that framing stats are stupid anyway.

 

As far as Rutschman goes with the bat, I what's the expectation with him anyway?  Even if he's sacrificing some power for OBP... his wRC+ is 126 right now, despite the fact that he's scuffling pretty bad right now.  His plate discipline makes him relevant even when he's slumping, so it's probably not the worst thing for him to try to get on base.  For reference, Markakis exceeded that number only once in his career.  Even Posey was mostly a 120-135 wRC+ hitter that went on a heater for 1 season.  And that's no disrespect to Posey, because that's still insanely valuable from a catcher.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Hallas

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

He's still close to elite in throwing (pop time of 1.9 is 9th in the majors and better than last year.)  

Pop time isn’t throwing.  In my view, Adley often rushes his throws in his effort to get them off quickly, frequently causing them to bounce or be off line, frequently to to 3B side of the bag which leaves the infielder little chance to make a good tag.  It’s not like he’s terrible — 1% above average in CS% — but not as good as last year when he was 8% better than league average.  And runners are testing him way more, out of proportion to the increased league average in attempts.  

[Hallas]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Pop time isn’t throwing.  In my view, Adley often rushes his throws in his effort to get them off quickly, frequently causing them to bounce or be off line, frequently to to 3B side of the bag which leaves the infielder little chance to make a good tag.  It’s not like he’s terrible — 1% above average in CS% — but not as good as last year when he was 8% better than league average.  And runners are testing him way more, out of proportion to the increased league average in attempts.  

Quote

On steal or pickoff attempts by a catcher, Pop Time represents the time elapsed from the moment the pitch hits the catcher's mitt to the moment the intended fielder is projected to receive his throw at the center of the base.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/pop-time

 

It doesn't measure accuracy but throwing velocity is a key component.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Hallas said:

 

Are you saying that his numbers this year are more reflective his his defensive talent level?  He was elite in blocking, framing, and close to elite in throwing last year in terms of pop time.  Him having a defensive slump due to tiredness would explain the dropoff in blocking.  He's still close to elite in throwing (pop time of 1.9 is 9th in the majors and better than last year.)  I have no explanation for his dropoff in framing.  I can't imagine he forgot how to frame.  I've tended to believe that framing stats are stupid anyway.

 

As far as Rutschman goes with the bat, I what's the expectation with him anyway?  Even if he's sacrificing some power for OBP... his wRC+ is 126 right now, despite the fact that he's scuffling pretty bad right now.  His plate discipline makes him relevant even when he's slumping, so it's probably not the worst thing for him to try to get on base.  For reference, Markakis exceeded that number only once in his career.  Even Posey was mostly a 120-135 wRC+ hitter that went on a heater for 1 season.  And that's no disrespect to Posey, because that's still insanely valuable from a catcher.

What I’m saying is clear. I think his season, thus far, has been disappointing. It doesn’t reflect how I think his whole season will go or how his career will go.

But a decrease in defense and power is a disappointment and anyone saying differently is either lying to themselves or to everyone else.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Pop time isn’t throwing.  In my view, Adley often rushes his throws in his effort to get them off quickly, frequently causing them to bounce or be off line, frequently to to 3B side of the bag which leaves the infielder little chance to make a good tag.  It’s not like he’s terrible — 1% above average in CS% — but not as good as last year when he was 8% better than league average.  And runners are testing him way more, out of proportion to the increased league average in attempts.  

https://eutawstreetreport.com/battling-baserunners-adley-rutschmans-achilles-heel/

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://eutawstreetreport.com/battling-baserunners-adley-rutschmans-achilles-heel/

That’s an excellent article, and completely comports with the eye test.  Accuracy is the issue, not pop time or arm strength.

I did see one interesting fact in there.   Adley has made 24 throws to 2B.  However, opponents have attempted 32 steals of 2B against him.  That means that in 8 of 32, Adley didn’t even bother to make a throw.  Presumably, those are mostly plays where the pitcher just didn’t do an adequate job of checking the runner.   There could be 1-2 where Adley didn’t catch it cleanly.  

 

[Too Tall]

Not going to argue with SG because his points have validity. Perhaps raise some future concern. But I think, sometimes a player comes along whose impact exceeds their personal data. I'm enjoying this year but having trouble trying to figure out how we are doing it? I go around the infield - the outfield - look at pitching and except for Gunner's recent surge and Haye's year so far plus Mullins before injury, no really great stats there. Yet here we are, June 12, third best record in baseball and we have been winning since Adley came up. Sometimes the whole is greater than the parts. And Adley is the straw that stirs the drink? 

[Hallas]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What I’m saying is clear. I think his season, thus far, has been disappointing. It doesn’t reflect how I think his whole season will go or how his career will go.

But a decrease in defense and power is a disappointment and anyone saying differently is either lying to themselves or to everyone else.

 

I say this with a bit of hesitation, because we already have someone on the squad that's a clear xwOBA outlier (Mountcastle) but given that his exit velocity and hard hit % have improved from last year, I'm leaning toward the possibility that he got a little lucky on batted ball outcomes last year, and he's getting a little unlucky this year.  His xSLG, xwOBA etc. are all higher than his actual.

 

As for his defense, I think he's just getting tired from playing too much.