Does Mountcastle have any trade value?

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I can't imagine a team with terrible 1st base production thinking that Ryan Mountcastle is some sort of an upgrade.

I think it depends on if that team is smelling their own farts or not, you know?

I mean, let's look at Austin Hays, who is a similar type of swing-first hitter. Hays has a career OPS+ of 108. Mountcastle has a career OPS+ of 109. The big difference is Hays is in the middle of a career-best 130 OPS+ season, while Mountcastle is in the middle of a career-worst 89 OPS+ season. 

Hays is one year older. Maybe Mountcastle has his 2023 Hays season next year. I'm not saying that's likely, but we didn't think it was likely for Hays either (and we'll see if he can keep it up). There's a lot of room to believe/convince yourself that Mountcastle can improve, whether it's his age or underlying metrics or getting away from the wall, etc. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by interloper

[SemperFi]

I have to wonder what Ryan would be like as a player if he was developed under Elias as opposed to spending his formative years under Duquette's staff.  I have vivid memories of him trying to play short, then third, then OF......when it was obvious he was limited.  

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I think it depends on if that team is smelling their own farts or not, you know?

I mean, let's look at Austin Hays, who is a similar type of swing-first hitter. Hays has a career OPS+ of 108. Mountcastle has a career OPS+ of 109. The big difference is Hays is in the middle of a career-best 130 OPS+ season, while Mountcastle is in the middle of a career-worst 89 OPS+ season. 

Hays is one year older. Maybe Mountcastle has his 2023 Hays season next year. I'm not saying that's likely, but we didn't think it was likely for Hays either (and we'll see if he can keep it up). There's a lot of room to believe Mountcastle can improve, whether it's his age or metrics or getting away from the wall, etc. 

There is one other important difference.  One is an outfielder, capable of playing all three positions.  Another is a barely adequate first baseman. 

Mountcastle probably has more upside as a hitter than Hays.  I'll admit that.  I'm still ready to move on from Mountcastle.  1B is too easy of a position to find offense to run an out machine out there on a daily basis. 

[interloper]

The splits are very interesting this year for him. 1.017 vs LHP is better than he's ever hit lefties in his career. And .539 vs RHP is worse than he's ever hit righties. 

Normally, you'd figure those will normalize over the season and just run him out there. But while we're contending I think you absolutely platoon him as much as you can. 

[deward]

1 hour ago, oriole said:

I don’t think you’re gonna get much for a first basemen that can’t hit righties, get on base, or play good defense. You may as well keep him to fit the role he is in. But a semi-permanent move has to be made. He can’t be in the lineup every day anymore. It’s beyond “bad luck”

"Can't hit righties" is something that has only been an issue for the first couple of months of this season. Coming into 2023, he had a career OPS vs RHP of .776 in over 900 PA. Even last year, while dealing with the new dimensions, he put up an OPS vs RHP of .741. Maybe not all-star numbers, but considerably better than the .539 OPS in 179 PA so far this year. It seems premature to me to assume that the player he has been over the past two months is the player he'll be going forward; he seems more likely to shift back towards his career norms as the season goes on.

[Moose Milligan]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think it depends on if that team is smelling their own farts or not, you know?

I mean, let's look at Austin Hays, who is a similar type of swing-first hitter. Hays has a career OPS+ of 108. Mountcastle has a career OPS+ of 109. The big difference is Hays is in the middle of a career-best 130 OPS+ season, while Mountcastle is in the middle of a career-worst 89 OPS+ season. 

Hays is one year older. Maybe Mountcastle has his 2023 Hays season next year. I'm not saying that's likely, but we didn't think it was likely for Hays either (and we'll see if he can keep it up). There's a lot of room to believe/convince yourself that Mountcastle can improve, whether it's his age or underlying metrics or getting away from the wall, etc. 

Hays plays the outfield and has been known to play it pretty well.

I understand your comparison, however Hays's OBP is still propped up by whatever his batting average is.  He's hitting .301 this year, so his on base percentage is .339 and his OPS is .830.  He's also injury free so far this year, too.

But your other point is that Hays is trending up, Mountcastle has been trending down.  Hays is having a career year...I am wondering if Mountcastle has already had his.  At least, in Baltimore.  Per SG, some of the statcast stuff is good and I don't discount that entirely but that also sounds like Kevin Brown saying he's unlucky.  Mountcastle has been unlucky for well over a whole MLB season now, it's tiresome.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Mountcastle has been unlucky for well over a whole MLB season now, it's tiresome.

Agreed there. You can't unlucky yourself to a .539 OPS vs RHP. That's just plan bad. But it's also so far off his career norm that I don't think that's the "real" Mounty. Either way, hitting lefties is literally the only thing salvaging his season. 

Remember that 9 RBI game? I remember thinking "man, that was awesome, he's probably gonna suck after this now". And then he did. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Agreed there. You can't unlucky yourself to a .539 OPS vs RHP. That's just plan bad. But it's also so far off his career norm that I don't think that's the "real" Mounty. Either way, hitting lefties is literally the only thing salvaging his season. 

Remember that 9 RBI game? I remember thinking "man, that was awesome, he's probably gonna suck after this now". And then he did. 

Of course it’s unlucky. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course it’s unlucky. 

To some degree, sure. But that's every hitter. At a certain point, your approach at the plate is a factor. We see him have terrible ABs more than we see him hit into bad luck. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course it’s unlucky. 

Dude, stop.  I get the unlucky argument, but after almost a season and a half, it's tiresome and it starts to ring hollow.  

He can go try to get lucky somewhere else, cause clearly he was born under a bad sign in Baltimore.  

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

This isn't telling us anything we don't know. O'Hearn is hitting above his career norms - we know that. Mountcastle is hitting below his career norms - we know that. Luck is a factor in both - we know that.

To me it's just more reason to platoon these guys for as long as that's successful. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

To some degree, sure. But that's every hitter. At a certain point, your approach at the plate is a factor. We see him have terrible ABs more than we see him hit into bad luck. 

Of course but that’s not what you said. You said you can’t unlucky yourself to a 539 OPS. You are wrong. He’s been unlucky. That’s not even debatable.

Now, the numbers wouldn’t be great if he weren’t unlucky but they would look a lot better and people wouldn’t be acting like he is some DFa candidate not capable of being a productive MLer.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Dude, stop.  I get the unlucky argument, but after almost a season and a half, it's tiresome and it starts to ring hollow.  

He can go try to get lucky somewhere else, cause clearly he was born under a bad sign in Baltimore.  

Honestly, I don’t care if you are tired of it. It’s facts. I know in this day and age, people would rather push a narrative than look at facts but the facts are what they are.

That said, he’s not some great player with better luck..he’s just a better player with better luck.  I have said for a while that trading him by the time his arb 2 season is here should happen. I’m not trying to defend him and act like he’s really good but he’s unquestionably been unlucky and the dimensions in the park are unquestionably hurting his style of hitting.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

This isn't telling us anything we don't know. O'Hearn is hitting above his career norms - we know that. Mountcastle is hitting below his career norms - we know that. Luck is a factor in both - we know that.

To me it's just more reason to platoon these guys for as long as that's successful. 

You don’t seem to know that judging by what you said.