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Wow! Now that's a fine break down! Much appreciated!! -
I'm really not too concerned with his .169 ISO since returning to Norfolk. Last year at all levels he had a .176 ISO, and at Norfolk it was .133. More concerning to me is 50 strikeouts in 207 PA (24.2%). Last year he was at 20.3% overall, and 18.7% at Norfolk. Before his call-up, he was at 14.3%. So, while 24.2% is nothing to panic about, it's not what I expect from Holliday, and it goes a long way towards explaining his .252 BA. All in all, my panic meter is at 0.1. But, eventually I'd like him to start getting more hits and striking out less. -
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By interloper · Posted
This feels needlessly aggressive. The OP is reasonable enough. No Orioles fan wants a prospect to do poorly out of spite. -
By LookitsPuck · Posted
Basallo is currently ranked 69th in OPS at AA, which includes stats from people that are no longer at that level (including those that were demoted, promoted, etc.). Average age of players above Basallo: 24 He's the youngest. But here's the breakdown of those above him (minimum 50 PA): 20: 3 21: 9 22: 10 23: 10 24: 11 25: 15 26: 7 27: 1 28: 2 OPS by age group for everybody that qualifies in PA (at least 50): (ref: https://milbtracker.com/hitter-stats?levels[0]=AA&sort=ops&sort_direction=desc&org=&timeframe=2024&min_walk_percentage=0&max_strike_out_percentage=100&paginate=50&page=1) AGE OPS 18 0.544 19 0.800 20 0.747 21 0.734 22 0.701 23 0.677 24 0.664 25 0.682 26 0.682 27 0.620 28 0.686 29 0.652 30 0.588 31 0.676 Breakdown by age: AGE COUNT PERCENTAGE 18 1 0.22% 19 1 0.22% 20 7 1.56% 21 31 6.92% 22 55 12.28% 23 83 18.53% 24 86 19.20% 25 88 19.64% 26 51 11.38% 27 21 4.69% 28 7 1.56% 29 11 2.46% 30 3 0.67% 31 3 0.67% I mean, 90% of the league is aged 21-27 with 60% of the league being aged 23-25. Basallo is putting up a comparable OPS to the upper echelon of hitters overall. And is OPSing better than *every age group* on average! The kid is special. At age 20, Gunnar put up an 826 OPS across A, A+, AA. At age 18, Basallo put up a 953 OPS across A, A+, AA. -
By interloper · Posted
I don't agree at all. In the majors maybe, but not in AAA. Just my opinion. -
Oops missed your reference. I agree it’s a great article. -
From a great analytics article on Mayo and Holliday in Baseball America. I don’t want to paste too much more because we should encourage this type of work. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/coby-mayo-jackson-holliday-headline-10-statcast-standouts/ This is hopefully the last time that I’ll be writing about Mayo (hopefully he’ll be in the majors soon), so let’s dive even deeper and break down his analytical metrics vs both RHPs and LHPs, beginning with RHPs, as that’s his tougher matchup as a righty bat. If you want to read these charts at a glance, go to the bottom row where it says “All Pitches” and scan for gold. The darker the gold, the better, the more purple, the worse the metric is. You can then scan up and see how that looks when broken into a smaller piece, such as sliders. All numbers are relative to the MLB average, so that you can easily see if he’s above average at something, with the caveat that this is against Triple-A pitching. Let’s go back to the analytical check boxes. When we talk about chase rates, we’re mostly concerned about chasing breaking balls (sliders, sweepers and curves) as well as offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters). The previous charts strongly suggested he was going to shine in that respect. Indeed he does, with minuscule chase rates against non-fastballs. This is a huge box to check. It demonstrates his tremendous approach at the plate, even against the harder matchup. He’s also able to avoid swing and miss against breaking balls the few times he does chase. For Zone Contact, I usually key in on the fastballs. That’s the pitch pitchers will typically use to attack hitters in the zone. Here again, we see more gold coloring, indicating Mayo has no trouble getting to above-average bat-to-ball ability in the zone. Now what makes Mayo an outstanding hitting prospect is his rare ability to make hard contact in the air. Against righties, he shows a remarkable ability to lift nearly every pitch type (including fastballs, which have a higher baseline launch angle), and does so with authority. I look through a lot of data, and I can’t think of another prospect that makes this much contact, with this much power, and also hits the ball in the air. If you thought his metrics against righthanders were good, they’re even better when he has the matchup advantage against lefties, with perhaps a touch too much chase sliders. We see an incredible average exit velocity of 96.1 mph, which is borderline elite, and fully backed up by his elite 90th percentile ext velocities. At the risk of beating the same drum again, we see much the same story, an extremely potent analytical profile, where we have to zoom in on a subset to find something that Mayo isn’t (yet) excelling at. If he can replicate these kind of exit velocities and launch angles against major league lefties, he’ll be hitting a lot of home runs.
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