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Coby Mayo is tearing it up in Bowie again tonight..

Roy Firestone

By Roy Firestone
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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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11 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

That's why this season was important for identifying a core group. It's still possible, and they may have made decisions on guys that I'd like to see in Baltimore...no real way of knowing until the deadline comes.

No one should be afraid of giving up value to get value. 

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Roy Firestone
Roy Firestone

let him get a couple more bombs. next week.....and I'll give you some amazing anecdotes...

Roy Firestone
Roy Firestone

sure. Why not? His OPS is now 1.036 AS OF TONIGHT...!!!

Roy Firestone
Roy Firestone

Home run #16 tonight....I think he's going to Norfolk soon...maybe a week or so...this kid is special...I'd like to think he could be an Aaron Judge type power hitter...and frankly, right now we could

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maybenxtyr Hangout Veteran Council

maybenxtyr

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

No one should be afraid of giving up value to get value. 

I agree. I'd rather not give up high value for a rental though. I'm just not sure that the quality of pitching will be available in season for a long term asset.

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now All-Star

now

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ok, but that’s just the thing. Who else is on the untouchable list? Holliday, of course. Cowser?  Kjerstad?  Mayo? At some point it becomes less of an untouchable list and more of a list of guys you’re afraid to give up. 

Sounds like a good list of keepers there. With wiggle room on Cowser/Ortiz.

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bluedog Perennial All-Star

bluedog

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2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's are going to have to trade some very good prospects to get a TOR starter.  Look what Seattle gave up for Castillo.  We need to get starting pitching somehow because Wells and Bradish and pray for rain won't work.

I think Elias is going to go with Bradish, Wells, Kremer, Irvin, GRod / Gibson this year in the rotation and he'll look to upgrade the bullpen via trade. Then I think he goes fishing for 1 - 2 TOR pitchers in free agency.

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now All-Star

now

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9 minutes ago, bluedog said:

I think Elias is going to go with Bradish, Wells, Kremer, Irvin, GRod / Gibson this year in the rotation and he'll look to upgrade the bullpen via trade. Then I think he goes fishing for 1 - 2 TOR pitchers in free agency.

I think that's the most sensible route too. Thereby minimizing risk by holding the top prospects. As they continue to develop they will naturally sort themselves from surplus to the cream rising to the top. No need to rush that process, with free agency translating to dollar risk instead of risking losing long-term player assets.

Meanwhile if they want to trade Mountcastle, Hicks, Frazier, Mateo, Urias... go for it. Even Hays, for max value selling high! 

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Alasdaire Major Leaguer Rising Star

Alasdaire

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I'll never get over baseball fans fantasizing about how their favorite team should get rid of its young, exciting players.

Put Mayo in pretty much any other farm system and he's untouchable. That's a reflection of his talent and should not be diminished because there happen to be other talented prospects around him here.

It would be like arguing that the Ravens should have traded Kyle Hamilton last year because they were so deep at safety. Hamilton carved out a role as a slot corner because he's extremely good. And what do you know, now he might be moved back to safety. Mayo, on his current trajectory, will have a valuable place in any lineup.

If we must get rid of good, homegrown players because of the gross landscape of the MLB and our cheap owners, then at least do it with players who don't have unlimited upside.

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ChosenOne21 Major Leaguer

ChosenOne21

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5 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

.....any more than we are convinced the Coby Mayo will be a top tier hitter in the majors.  That's the risk, and what makes a trade....there are almost never any guarantees.

Sure. I'm not saying I wouldn't trade Coby Mayo for him necessarily. But that would have to be most or all of what I'd trade.

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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4 hours ago, bluedog said:

I think Elias is going to go with Bradish, Wells, Kremer, Irvin, GRod / Gibson this year in the rotation and he'll look to upgrade the bullpen via trade. Then I think he goes fishing for 1 - 2 TOR pitchers in free agency.

Joun Means was at the game today.. 

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Joun Means was at the game today.. 

We all hope to see John Means pitch meaningful innings this year, but the guy’s basically at the point of “maybe playing catch.” We have no idea what condition he’ll be in when he actually starts throwing. I don’t know that he can be counted on for anything.

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Three Run Homer Hangout Veteran Council

Three Run Homer

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MLB.com released its latest top 100 prospects this week.  Mayo came in at 78, Connor Norby at 69 and Joey Ortiz at 65.  

If this ranking is roughly in line with industry perceptions, then I think it's Norby and Ortiz that should be traded, not Mayo.   Think of what we could get with two top 100 prospects and a couple of lottery tickets at the lower levels.  And we'd still have Holliday, Mayo, Westburg, Cowser and Kjerstad in the system.    

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Brooks The Great Major Leaguer

Brooks The Great

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52 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

MLB.com released its latest top 100 prospects this week.  Mayo came in at 78, Connor Norby at 69 and Joey Ortiz at 65.  

If this ranking is roughly in line with industry perceptions, then I think it's Norby and Ortiz that should be traded, not Mayo.   Think of what we could get with two top 100 prospects and a couple of lottery tickets at the lower levels.  And we'd still have Holliday, Mayo, Westburg, Cowser and Kjerstad in the system.    

Agreed. There's really no room for Norby in particular long-term in the major league starting lineup.

Mayo is going to skyrocket on the next MLB Pipeline update. All the lists in general typically lag a few months, although industry-wide consensus for these rankings/lists has sped up a great deal over the past couple years. Mayo is a clear Top 25 talent with room to go up the lists further in 2024 depending on when he's promoted to the majors.

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  • Posts

    • CP0861
      What makes Basallo so untouchable?

      By CP0861 · Posted

      Wow! Now that's a fine break down! Much appreciated!!
    • Frobby
      Breaking down Holliday’s swing

      By Frobby · Posted

      I'm really not too concerned with his .169 ISO since returning to Norfolk.  Last year at all levels he had a .176 ISO, and at Norfolk it was .133.    More concerning to me is 50 strikeouts in 207 PA (24.2%).  Last year he was at 20.3% overall, and 18.7% at Norfolk.  Before his call-up, he was at 14.3%.   So, while 24.2% is nothing to panic about, it's not what I expect from Holliday, and it goes a long way towards explaining his .252 BA. All in all, my panic meter is at 0.1.   But, eventually I'd like him to start getting more hits and striking out less.
    • interloper
      What makes Basallo so untouchable?

      By interloper · Posted

      This feels needlessly aggressive. The OP is reasonable enough. No Orioles fan wants a prospect to do poorly out of spite. 
    • LookitsPuck
      What makes Basallo so untouchable?

      By LookitsPuck · Posted

      Basallo is currently ranked 69th in OPS at AA, which includes stats from people that are no longer at that level (including those that were demoted, promoted, etc.).  Average age of players above Basallo: 24 He's the youngest. But here's the breakdown of those above him (minimum 50 PA): 20: 3 21: 9 22: 10 23: 10 24: 11 25: 15 26: 7 27: 1 28: 2 OPS by age group for everybody that qualifies in PA (at least 50): (ref: https://milbtracker.com/hitter-stats?levels[0]=AA&sort=ops&sort_direction=desc&org=&timeframe=2024&min_walk_percentage=0&max_strike_out_percentage=100&paginate=50&page=1) AGE OPS 18 0.544 19 0.800 20 0.747 21 0.734 22 0.701 23 0.677 24 0.664 25 0.682 26 0.682 27 0.620 28 0.686 29 0.652 30 0.588 31 0.676 Breakdown by age: AGE COUNT PERCENTAGE 18 1 0.22% 19 1 0.22% 20 7 1.56% 21 31 6.92% 22 55 12.28% 23 83 18.53% 24 86 19.20% 25 88 19.64% 26 51 11.38% 27 21 4.69% 28 7 1.56% 29 11 2.46% 30 3 0.67% 31 3 0.67% I mean, 90% of the league is aged 21-27 with 60% of the league being aged 23-25.  Basallo is putting up a comparable OPS to the upper echelon of hitters overall. And is OPSing better than *every age group* on average!  The kid is special. At age 20, Gunnar put up an 826 OPS across A, A+, AA. At age 18, Basallo put up a 953 OPS across A, A+, AA.
    • interloper
      Breaking down Holliday’s swing

      By interloper · Posted

      I don't agree at all. In the majors maybe, but not in AAA. Just my opinion. 
    • baltfan
      Bring up Mayo already!!

      By baltfan · Posted

      Oops missed your reference.  I agree it’s a great article. 
    • baltfan
      Bring up Mayo already!!

      By baltfan · Posted

      From a great analytics article on Mayo and Holliday in Baseball America.  I don’t want to paste too much more because we should encourage this type of work.  https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/coby-mayo-jackson-holliday-headline-10-statcast-standouts/ This is hopefully the last time that I’ll be writing about Mayo (hopefully he’ll be in the majors soon), so let’s dive even deeper and break down his analytical metrics vs both RHPs and LHPs, beginning with RHPs, as that’s his tougher matchup as a righty bat.   If you want to read these charts at a glance, go to the bottom row where it says “All Pitches” and scan for gold. The darker the gold, the better, the more purple, the worse the metric is. You can then scan up and see how that looks when broken into a smaller piece, such as sliders. All numbers are relative to the MLB average, so that you can easily see if he’s above average at something, with the caveat that this is against Triple-A pitching. Let’s go back to the analytical check boxes. When we talk about chase rates, we’re mostly concerned about chasing breaking balls (sliders, sweepers and curves) as well as offspeed pitches (changeups and splitters). The previous charts strongly suggested he was going to shine in that respect. Indeed he does, with minuscule chase rates against non-fastballs. This is a huge box to check. It demonstrates his tremendous approach at the plate, even against the harder matchup. He’s also able to avoid swing and miss against breaking balls the few times he does chase. For Zone Contact, I usually key in on the fastballs. That’s the pitch pitchers will typically use to attack hitters in the zone. Here again, we see more gold coloring, indicating Mayo has no trouble getting to above-average bat-to-ball ability in the zone. Now what makes Mayo an outstanding hitting prospect is his rare ability to make hard contact in the air. Against righties, he shows a remarkable ability to lift nearly every pitch type (including fastballs, which have a higher baseline launch angle), and does so with authority. I look through a lot of data, and I can’t think of another prospect that makes this much contact, with this much power, and also hits the ball in the air.   If you thought his metrics against righthanders were good, they’re even better when he has the matchup advantage against lefties, with perhaps a touch too much chase sliders. We see an incredible average exit velocity of 96.1 mph, which is borderline elite, and fully backed up by his elite 90th percentile ext velocities. At the risk of beating the same drum again, we see much the same story, an extremely potent analytical profile, where we have to zoom in on a subset to find something that Mayo isn’t (yet) excelling at. If he can replicate these kind of exit velocities and launch angles against major league lefties, he’ll be hitting a lot of home runs.

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