2023 Comp Pick (#100): Tavian Josenberger - OF - (Jr) Arkasnsas (AR)

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This pick I don’t get. He’s a poor man’s Bradfield. The obsession with college OFers really needs to stop. Lol

Why not take the shot at a higher upside HS kid at this point? 

In other words, Ciolek and Elias have come a long way but still don’t have it down just yet.   If only they had a real expert whispering in their ear.   Oh well.  LOL

[deward]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Outside of Fabian, are any of these outside of R1 college OFers working out for the team?  Am I forgetting someone?

Beavers was looking good but progress has been halted this year although we don’t know if they are doing any tinkering with him.  Anyone else I’m forgetting?

Beavers got off to a solid start (close to .900 OPS in April), had a terrible May, and has put an OPS close to .900 again since the start of June. He's been ok. John Rhodes has been showing progress at Bowie - .603 OPS in April, .753 in May, up to .985 in June. He's off to a slow start in July, but hopefully he'll keep it going.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, deward said:

Beavers got off to a solid start (close to .900 OPS in April), had a terrible May, and has put an OPS close to .900 again since the start of June. He's been ok. John Rhodes has been showing progress at Bowie - .603 OPS in April, .753 in May, up to .985 in June. He's off to a slow start in July, but hopefully he'll keep it going.

Then he's back to struggling in July (.074/.167/.111/.278). The problem with Rhodes is he doesn't have a carrying tool. I mean, he's not really bad at anything, he just really isn't good at anything in particular either. Not enough juice in the bat to make up for his middling OBP skills. He's still fairly young so he could keep improving, but he's at best a 4th outfielder for me but he's behind McKenna and Haskins in that kind of player.

That's why I'm not real thrilled with these 4-6th round college outfield selections. I'd prefer to go the high school route and get a kid from a cold school like McKenna and see if he can become something vs going after a college kid that may end up a decent minor league guy, but has very little ceiling. Just my preference vs being critical of the selection. But so far after the 2nd round, the Orioles have not hit on a college bat yet.

Maybe a few of these guys are to save money for a Creed Willems type later in the draft? We'll see. 

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Then he's back to struggling in July (.074/.167/.111/.278). The problem with Rhodes is he doesn't have a carrying tool. I mean, he's not really bad at anything, he just really isn't good at anything in particular either. Not enough juice in the bat to make up for his middling OBP skills. He's still fairly young so he could keep improving, but he's at best a 4th outfielder for me but he's behind McKenna and Haskins in that kind of player.

That's why I'm not real thrilled with these 4-6th round college outfield selections. I'd prefer to go the high school route and get a kid from a cold school like McKenna and see if he can become something vs going after a college kid that may end up a decent minor league guy, but has very little ceiling. Just my preference vs being critical of the selection. But so far after the 2nd round, the Orioles have not hit on a college bat yet.

Maybe a few of these guys are to save money for a Creed Willems type later in the draft? We'll see. 

Hernaiz was a similar early-middle round HS pick that worked out.  Think we even went under slot on him. 

Off-topic, but he's hitting .338 in Double A for Oakland and will likely be called up to Triple A soon.  Still hasn't turned 22. 

[McLovin]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Outside of Fabian, are any of these outside of R1 college OFers working out for the team?  Am I forgetting someone?

Beavers was looking good but progress has been halted this year although we don’t know if they are doing any tinkering with him.  Anyone else I’m forgetting?

Beavers the last 4 weeks:

.303/.396/.592

7 2B 5 HR

13:17 BB:K

He was cold in May for sure, but pretty good otherwise.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, McLovin said:

Beavers the last 4 weeks:

.303/.396/.592

7 2B 5 HR

13:17 BB:K

He was cold in May for sure, but pretty good otherwise.

Beavers and Wagner got off to really cold starts.  At this point, they both just need to get out of Aberdeen and promoted to Bowie.  

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

Hernaiz was a similar early-middle round HS pick that worked out.  Think we even went under slot on him. 

Off-topic, but he's hitting .338 in Double A for Oakland and will likely be called up to Triple A soon.  Still hasn't turned 22. 

Glad to hear he’s picked it up. As I recall, he started off slowly.

[Flash- bd]

Horvath, Baumeister (this guy especially looks very, very interesting to me), and Lord all look like really interesting picks to me, so not too worried if this one is less of an upside choice or maybe a money saver. 

[justD]

A couple years ago (or 3?) I picked up a "theme" that was a) pitchers that threw strikes/really low walk rates, every one of them really extreme in that regard and b) SS or other infielders who walked a lot. 

Theme I'm picking up this year - perhaps Sig's market inefficiency for this year's draft model - is speed.  Maybe add in versatility, but the inefficiency he seemed to identify this year is speed. 

Even at the expense of hitting, but hopefully in combination with a decent eye at the plate so that it's not wasted, but even without getting on base, speed that helps generate elite outfield performance. 

Just something I maybe noticed. 

[Getz]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

Saving little bits of money here and there

[sportsfan8703]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Saving little bits of money here and there

Just from scrolling the front page, it looks like about $360k saved, but… as we’ve learned in year’s past, that could all go away one top 10 pick that none of us were expecting to get that much overslot. It would be nice to snag one of the big names outside of rd 10 that we drafted. 

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just from scrolling the front page, it looks like about $360k saved, but… as we’ve learned in year’s past, that could all go away one top 10 pick that none of us were expecting to get that much overslot. It would be nice to snag one of the big names outside of rd 10 that we drafted. 

Technically, Witt is the only big name after 10 and that doesn’t look like it’s happening.    I would have liked to taken a longshot flier on Lott and Ritchie the two HS hitters but that also doesn’t look good.    Waiting on Baumeister.   Pretty much, anything on top of that is gravy.    Not sure what the real strategy was on the other three but it doesn’t seem to be working out.    Still like the upside of most of our top ten College picks.  

[Aristotelian]

On 7/10/2023 at 2:35 PM, Sports Guy said:

This pick I don’t get. He’s a poor man’s Bradfield. The obsession with college OFers really needs to stop. Lol

Why not take the shot at a higher upside HS kid at this point? 

I have been thinking about this. I wonder if Elias's theory is that you basically get to control all the player's peak years if they are drafted at age 22? They will be 30 or nearly 30 by the time they hit FA. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I have been thinking about this. I wonder if Elias's theory is that you basically get to control all the player's peak years if they are drafted at age 22? They will be 30 or nearly 30 by the time they hit FA. 

Ciolek has come out and said that they just have so much more data on college vs HS.   They’ve obviously combined their analytics model along with athleticism to choose certain types of players and it looks like it works.    It seems like every player chosen in 2023 top ten is described as an “athlete” with above average speed and the ability to play plus defense in the outfield.    Josenberger and Bradfield seem to have the least present power but both offer some potential in that area.   Horvath and Cunningham look like potential power hitters with plus speed.    Etzel could be a real power/speed surprise in the 10th.   It’s going to be interesting to follow this class’ progress and where they all start.   That’s 5 outfielders with 3 described as CF and the other two (Horvath and Josenberger) capable of playing there.