Which position player will leave the roster after the ASB?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Heck no. You don’t just DFA a SS with a 70  defensive grade and a 75 speed grade. That’s a valuable reserve piece in a pennant chase.

Mountcastle OTOH is just an up/down bat that you can use in certain matchups.  One pinch hit does not change that. He’s got a lot to prove before we start DFA’ing anyone in a pennant chase. 

The defense doesn’t matter because you have Ortiz who can play that role.

Speed does matter but you don’t roster him for the next few months because of a few pinch running opportunities that MAY pop up in the postseason. 
 

Mountcastle hits lefties very well and his very good statcast numbers, so he could provide you plenty of production with the bat.

Now, I’m personally ok if he’s not here but he’s more valuable than Mateo.

[RarityFlaherty]

19 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

I actually think Frazier has been pretty clutch for us....though his defence is sketchy...

Frazier has been one of our best hitters with runners on base all season. He’s literally been #2 in OPS with runners on base all season while Santander and Mullins have flipped back and forth between 1 and 3. His defense isn’t great, but it isn’t awful enough that it hurts you too bad if he isn’t an everyday player. In my opinion, he’s pretty perfect in a bench bat/ rest your starters type of role. His veteran presence is really just a bonus. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Frazier has been one of our best hitters with runners on base all season. He’s literally been #2 in OPS with runners on base all season while Santander and Mullins have flipped back and forth between 1 and 3. 

It's not a repeatable skill.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's not a repeatable skill.

Sure it is.   Some players are better at it than others.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Sure it is.   Some players are better at it than others.

Sure, maybe two in a given generation?

Just because Big Papi could do it doesn't mean it's a thing for the Fraziers of the world.

Personally I view it as a flaw.  If a player can consistently perform better in those situations does that mean they actually lose focus in low leverage situations?  Do they take at bats off?

[IPlayGM]

26 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Frazier has been one of our best hitters with runners on base all season. He’s literally been #2 in OPS with runners on base all season while Santander and Mullins have flipped back and forth between 1 and 3. His defense isn’t great, but it isn’t awful enough that it hurts you too bad if he isn’t an everyday player. In my opinion, he’s pretty perfect in a bench bat/ rest your starters type of role. His veteran presence is really just a bonus. 

This is why I value him more than Mateo. Bench bat. Especially if they find a way to get Ortiz up. In my opinion, you will need a guy to pinch hit more than you will pinch run.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The defense doesn’t matter because you have Ortiz who can play that role.

Speed does matter but you don’t roster him for the next few months because of a few pinch running opportunities that MAY pop up in the postseason. 
 

Mountcastle hits lefties very well and his very good statcast numbers, so he could provide you plenty of production with the bat.

Now, I’m personally ok if he’s not here but he’s more valuable than Mateo.

Are we sure that this current version of Mountcastle still hits lefties well?  To me, he has to prove that in AAA before I get rid of any player for him.  One pinch hit AB doesn't show me that.  

In 16 AB in AAA versus LHP, Mountcastle has a .428 OPS.  So...

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Are we sure that this current version of Mountcastle still hits lefties well?  To me, he has to prove that in AAA before I get rid of any player for him.  One pinch hit AB doesn't show me that.  

In 16 AB in AAA versus LHP, Mountcastle has a .428 OPS.  So...

One pinch hit AB doesn't show you anything but 16 at bats in AAA does?

What's your cutoff for a useful data point?  Eight, 12?

 

Oh wait, was this a joke that I missed?  That's it right?  You mention how a super small sample size isn't relevant and then, as a joke, bring up another super small sample size.

I get it, funny.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[RarityFlaherty]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's not a repeatable skill.

It definitely is for some players. He’s been doing it his whole career. 

[Il BuonO]

On 7/11/2023 at 10:24 AM, Morgan423 said:

Normally, when someone posts the same thing four times in a row in a forum, they aren't doing it for emphasis, they're doing it because there was a hiccup with the forum or the poster's internet at the moment they were making the post, and they thought their submission failed.  I tend not to call it out, because it's accidental 99.999999% of the time. 

Oh boy….I was joking. I’ve done the same thing before myself.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, maybe two in a given generation?

Just because Big Papi could do it doesn't mean it's a thing for the Fraziers of the world.

Putting aside what Frazier has done just in 2023, I took at look at his career splits, expecting to find very little difference between his bases empty and runners-on numbers.  Instead I saw: 

Bases empty: .688 OPS

Runners on: .791 OPS

RISP: .783 OPS

That’s a pretty big differential for a guy with 3300 PA in the big leagues.   It’s much more extreme this year: .526, .926 and .890 in 297 PA.

Looking at Frazier’s 8 year career, he’s hit better with runners on than with bases empty in 7 of 8 seasons.  There were a couple of seasons where he hit slightly worse with RISP than with bases empty, but not by much.  

So, it could still be just coincidence and not a repeatable skill, but I’m inclined to think that there’s some difference in Frazier’s approach with runners on that leads him to have better results.   Honestly, I’m more interested in why he’s so bad with the bases empty than why he’s good with runners on base.  
 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Frobby

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Putting aside what Frazier has done just in 2023, I took at look at his career splits, expecting to find very little difference between his bases empty and runners-on numbers.  Instead I saw: 

Bases empty: .688 OPS

Runners on: .791 OPS

RISP: .783 OPS

That’s a pretty big differential for a guy with 3300 PA in the big leagues.   It’s much more extreme this year: .526, .926 and .890 in 297 PA.

Looking at Frazier’s 8 year career, he’s hit better with runners on than with bases empty in 7 of 8 seasons.  There were a couple of seasons where he hit slightly worse with RISP than with bases empty, but not by much.  

So, it could still be just coincidence and not a repeatable skill, but I’m inclined to think that there’s some difference in Frazier’s approach with runners on that leads him to have better results.   Honestly, I’m more interested in why he’s so bad with the bases empty than why he’s good with runners on base.  
 

There's a natural hole created, especially for a LHB that doesn't strike out a whole lot, when there's a runner on first, since the 1B has to hold him on.  That may explain part of it.

[CaptainRedbeard]

One consideration I just realized: O’Hearn is right on the cusp of a year of control. He came into this year with 4 yrs and 2 days. I’m NOT advocating for it at all because I think the priority is to put out our best team in the midst of the playoff hunt and right now that definitely includes O’Hearn (who has been our #4 hitter vs RHP for weeks!). 

O’Hearn still has an option but could also potentially have a grievance if he were optioned given his performance, but I think the Orioles win that. They could credibly argue that Mountcastle is the incumbent starter and they don’t have space on the roster as currently constructed. 

I think they would only need to keep O’Hearn down a couple weeks to get the year of control. They could recall him pretty much right after the roster crunch is solved at the trade deadline. FWIW, O’Hearn’s salary in arbitration for the additional year would be quite cheap given his performance the past few years and his baseline arb salary this year, so if you think he’s actually the player we have seen this year (and not just on a lucky heater), then that year of control is actually a decent chunk of value. 

[interloper]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

One consideration I just realized: O’Hearn is right on the cusp of a year of control. He came into this year with 4 yrs and 2 days. I’m NOT advocating for it at all because I think the priority is to put out our best team in the midst of the playoff hunt and right now that definitely includes O’Hearn (who has been our #4 hitter vs RHP for weeks!). 

O’Hearn still has an option but could also potentially have a grievance if he were optioned given his performance, but I think the Orioles win that. They could credibly argue that Mountcastle is the incumbent starter and they don’t have space on the roster as currently constructed. 

I think they would only need to keep O’Hearn down a couple weeks to get the year of control. They could recall him pretty much right after the roster crunch is solved at the trade deadline. FWIW, O’Hearn’s salary in arbitration for the additional year would be quite cheap given his performance the past few years and his baseline arb salary this year, so if you think he’s actually the player we have seen this year (and not just on a lucky heater), then that year of control is actually a decent chunk of value. 

That's very interesting. Good post. Something to keep an eye on! 

[G54377]

Are we really worried about having O'Hearn beyond next year though? (If I am understanding the dilemma right) 

Edited July 14, 2023 by G54377