Day 3 Thougts

[Greg Pappas]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hoping to take some high upside high schoolers here. 
 

I think this your perception has to do strictly due to the fact that we aren’t picking high. Had we a top 5 pick and landed someone like Crews or Clark or Langford I think you’d feel differently. 
 

I don’t think Elias is taking his foot off the pedal, I just think he’s leaning into picking guys that have a lot of upside and that’s due to where he’s picking in the draft. 

I realize that we're picking lower than Top 5, as that's clear.  I like Bradfield, but am not enamored with our picks past him.  I don't follow the draft like I used to, however, so my initial reading on this may change as I gather more info.  I may yet be pleased, but just don't feel that way now.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[baltfan]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Have to imagine his number is pretty high which may have scared some teams off. The fact that he's got a chance to go to a premier college program in LSU means he's probably heading there at this point unless somebody has enough extra cash and decides to take a flier on him late as an insurance policy against another guy not signing.

Might be but the hope was that because he is from Maryland maybe he could be tempted more than another high school guy.  Some people do want to play for the local team so relatives can see them more or just because they grew up a fan.  

[Jammer7]

It’s hard to figure what they’ll do from 11-20. They will probably not sign all draftees, and take some chances on tough signs. One thing that seems certain is they’ll continue to seek upside, college or HS. As noted by other posters, it is difficult to say which of rounds 1-10 are over or under slot. Seems like Burmeister and Cunningham might be somewhat over slot; and maybe Bragg, Fruit and Etzel could be under. Who knows…?

I don’t see them taking a big shot at someone like Cam Johnson, who likely has a huge $ number to forego LSU. Maybe I am wrong there, but I don’t see him, in particular, as a fit. I would look for a Showalter type HS pitcher, college relievers, and some underrated college position guys with upside. The one big name I am curious about in Texas RHP Tanner Witt. Probably no way, but his dad works for the Orioles, I believe he still does. He just came back from TJ, and might just want to get on with his pro career in the right system. 

[Greg Pappas]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Disagree on the mundane part.   Posters seem to equate HS with “upside”.  Bradfield, Horvath, and Cunningham are all upside.   Horvath and Cunningham are potential defensive CF with power and speed.   Bradfield is a game changer if he hits.    
 

I love the HS picks as much as anyone but upside is not exclusive to HS picks.   I am very excited about Mac Horvath.  Besides the tools, it just looks as though he’s got a very quick and powerful bat.   Great draft if you hit on your top two picks and get one starting pitcher from this group.
 

A guy like Cunningham is a fun pick.  Big dude who can run and hit bombs.  I take that pick over the Doug Hodo type any time.   

I never said college guys don't have upside, as they certainly have upside too... sometimes quite a bit.  But, typically college prospects have less upside, as their progress (or development) is usually further along as compared to the prep prospects.  I love how Elias has been able to sprinkle these overslot HS kids over the years, as his record in choosing them has been outstanding.  I'm hopeful to see Willems or Showalter type pick on Day 3.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I never said college guys don't have upside, as they certainly have upside too... sometimes quite a bit.  But, typically college prospects have less upside, as their progress (or development) is usually more evident as compared to the prep prospects.  I love how Elias has been able to sprinkle these overslot HS kids over the years, as his record in choosing them has been outstanding.  I'm hopeful to see Willems or Showalter type pick on Day 3.

Save your breath man. If you are agreeing with every single thing Elias does, he’s going to cry about it.

Your position is reasonable…as is the position that the college guys they got have that upside too.

End of the day, I like this draft but I do wish they had taken one higher ceiling, overslot HS player over one of the college OFers but overall, I think there is upside in this draft.

This is supposed to be the best draft we have seen in years. You need to take advantage of that. Hopefully they have.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

It’s my belief that the Orioles use the pool money but have never dipped into the 5% overage.  I could be wrong but it’s not their M.O. and I wouldn’t expect anything different this year.

Also, Baumeister, a sophomore, who could go much higher next year, does seem overslot, and toolsy Cunningham could be as well.    Bradfield is probably slot.   

I don't know if they've dipped into the 5% either.  Plus some guys won't sign either.  I could be overly optimistic for sure.  And then there's any NIL impact that I'm missing too.

Baumeister is the only one that could be significant to my amateur eyes.  The rest seem like "hidden gems" with warts on the resume where there's a good chance they already have a general idea of what it'll take to sign them.  Maybe it depends on how analytically driven other interested teams were.  It's not a stretch to think some can go under-slot just as easily as over-slot.  Elias/team have proven to play that game well, so I trust the process whatever happens.

[ScGO's]

I feel like this draft is what it needed to be with a focus on upside pitching. I like the idea of adding some HS talent to compliment the international players coming into the FCL

[baltfan]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Save your breath man. If you are agreeing with every single thing Elias does, he’s going to cry about it.

Your position is reasonable…as is the position that the college guys they got have that upside too.

End of the day, I like this draft but I do wish they had taken one higher ceiling, overslot HS player over one of the college OFers but overall, I think there is upside in this draft.

This is supposed to be the best draft we have seen in years. You need to take advantage of that. Hopefully they have.

The part of the draft that was supposed to be so deep was the college part because there were a ton of high school players that went to college because of the 5 round COVID draft.  It would make sense that you would lean college in selections.  

[MurphDogg]

27 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Might be but the hope was that because he is from Maryland maybe he could be tempted more than another high school guy.  Some people do want to play for the local team so relatives can see them more or just because they grew up a fan.  

Add in the fact that all of the farm teams are in a close geographic area, and it would seem especially attractive for a local player to sign with the O's. Money is of course, the largest factor though.

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Have to imagine his number is pretty high which may have scared some teams off. The fact that he's got a chance to go to a premier college program in LSU means he's probably heading there at this point unless somebody has enough extra cash and decides to take a flier on him late as an insurance policy against another guy not signing.

LSU is probably top tier in NIL money too.  On top of the normal SEC booster programs (on and off the balance sheet).

16 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I don’t see them taking a big shot at someone like Cam Johnson, who likely has a huge $ number to forego LSU. Maybe I am wrong there, but I don’t see him, in particular, as a fit. I would look for a Showalter type HS pitcher, college relievers, and some underrated college position guys with upside. The one big name I am curious about in Texas RHP Tanner Witt. Probably no way, but his dad works for the Orioles, I believe he still does. He just came back from TJ, and might just want to get on with his pro career in the right system. 

Wow, Witt is still on the board...  I saw that he was still there going into day 2.  I wonder if he'll even make it to us.

15 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I never said college guys don't have upside, as they certainly have upside too... sometimes quite a bit.  But, typically college prospects have less upside, as their progress (or development) is usually further along as compared to the prep prospects.  I love how Elias has been able to sprinkle these overslot HS kids over the years, as his record in choosing them has been outstanding.  I'm hopeful to see Willems or Showalter type pick on Day 3.

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

End of the day, I like this draft but I do wish they had taken one higher ceiling, overslot HS player over one of the college OFers but overall, I think there is upside in this draft.

This is supposed to be the best draft we have seen in years. You need to take advantage of that. Hopefully they have.

The "best draft we have seen in years" is from HS guys in 2020 (with its shortened 5 round draft) went to college.  Which means the college board is deeper than normal this year (in addition to the HS board).  I don't mind the strategy of going with a bunch of college guys in the first 10 rounds with that backdrop.  But I'm also wondering if we saved enough bonus capital to take a few HS fliers in rounds 11+.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

LSU is probably top tier in NIL money too.  On top of the normal SEC booster programs (on and off the balance sheet).

Wow, Witt is still on the board...  I saw that he was still there going into day 2.  I wonder if he'll even make it to us.

The "best draft we have seen in years" is from HS guys in 2020 (with its shortened 5 round draft) went to college.  Which means the college board is deeper than normal this year (in addition to the HS board).  I don't mind the strategy of going with a bunch of college guys in the first 10 rounds with that backdrop.  But I'm also wondering if we saved enough bonus capital to take a few HS fliers in rounds 11+.

I don’t mind that they did it either. I’m not bashing them for it. Just expressing a preference to go for a higher ceiling guy, likely over the Arkansas CF prospect. That’s probably the pick I would like to see a “do over”.