Day 3 Thougts

[sportsfan8703]

Starts at 2pm. Follow at the link below,

https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-mlb-draft-day-3-overview-and-schedule

Rds. 11-20. Picks can sign for $150k before counting against each team’s pool money. 

There’s still lots of big names available that will likely fly off the board in Rd.11. 

This is the most “risk” Elias and Co. have taken in a draft during their tenure. We’ve taken “tooled up” OF, and projectable pitchers. Zac Showalter was our 11th Rd HS SP pick last year. He’s had great early results so far. Hopefully, we have some pool money to play around with and can land an equivalent HS SP. 

I’d imagine that our development success with hitters especially, could sway a HS bat to forego NCAA. Well, that and money. 
 

Edited July 11, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[Greg Pappas]

I hope to see some high upside HS'ers taken, as this has been the most mundane draft in the Elias era, thus far.  

I like Bradfield but have been underwhelmed with our additional picks thus far.  Of course, the O's have a plan, so hopefully it'll work out.

[RVAOsFan]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how we are looking on pool money? Do we think we have some under slots so we can go out and try and lure in a big HS guy today?

[Moose Milligan]

Hoping to take some high upside high schoolers here. 
 

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

I hope to see some high upside HS'ers taken, as this has been the most mundane draft in the Elias era, thus far.  

I like Bradfield but have been underwhelmed with our additional picks thus far.  Of course, the O's have a plan, so hopefully it'll work out.

I think this your perception has to do strictly due to the fact that we aren’t picking high. Had we a top 5 pick and landed someone like Crews or Clark or Langford I think you’d feel differently. 
 

I don’t think Elias is taking his foot off the pedal, I just think he’s leaning into picking guys that have a lot of upside and that’s due to where he’s picking in the draft. 

[SpOkane]

Think they will have between $300,000-$600,000 in savings for R11-20.  Think they draft 2-4 HS, JUCO or 4 Yr Jr who had a disappointing year or Soph eligible players and whoever bites on the $500,000+ offer first becomes an Oriole on the last day of the signing period.

[RZNJ]

45 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I hope to see some high upside HS'ers taken, as this has been the most mundane draft in the Elias era, thus far.  

I like Bradfield but have been underwhelmed with our additional picks thus far.  Of course, the O's have a plan, so hopefully it'll work out.

Disagree on the mundane part.   Posters seem to equate HS with “upside”.  Bradfield, Horvath, and Cunningham are all upside.   Horvath and Cunningham are potential defensive CF with power and speed.   Bradfield is a game changer if he hits.    
 

I love the HS picks as much as anyone but upside is not exclusive to HS picks.   I am very excited about Mac Horvath.  Besides the tools, it just looks as though he’s got a very quick and powerful bat.   Great draft if you hit on your top two picks and get one starting pitcher from this group.
 

A guy like Cunningham is a fun pick.  Big dude who can run and hit bombs.  I take that pick over the Doug Hodo type any time.   

[RZNJ]

57 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on how we are looking on pool money? Do we think we have some under slots so we can go out and try and lure in a big HS guy today?

No one has a clue.  Baumeister and Cunningham could both be over slots.  My expectation is no big oversets today but maybe a 250k guy like Showalter.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, RVAOsFan said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on how we are looking on pool money? Do we think we have some under slots so we can go out and try and lure in a big HS guy today?

Purely amateur thoughts here, but none of the guys we've drafted have the chatter around them that screams budget-breaker.  There's a 5% overage buffer before teams lose future picks.  For the O's that's a $526+k cushion.  My guess is there will be close to $750k-1m to work with.  So, one significant over-slot or 2-3 mid-tiers to spread the risk a bit more.

[baltfan]

I'd like to see them take a shot at Cam Johnson if he is still available.  Maryland kid.  Good frame and left-handed.  Maybe he grew up an Orioles fan.  This is from Baseball America.

School: IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. Source: HS

Commit/Drafted: Louisiana State
Age At Draft: 18.5
BA Grade:55/Extreme
Tools:Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 40. Control: 45.

Johnson is one of the most physical players in the 2023 class with a 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame and plenty of stuff to go along with it. Originally from Maryland, Johnson transferred to IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., where he vastly improved his stock with a strong spring season. He has a crude delivery that features plenty of violence and and some inversion of his arm action in the back of his arm stroke, but he has good arm speed and his low, three-quarter slot creates a tough angle for hitters. As might be expected with his release point, Johnson drives a high groundball rate and his low-90s fastball, which ticked up this spring and has been up to 98 mph, has excellent running life. His go-to secondary is a swing-and-miss breaking ball that was previously in the mid-to-upper 70s but has also ticked up to get to the low 80s this spring. He has always had solid shape to the pitch, and now with more power and hard biting action, the high-spin, sweepy slider looks like an above-average offering. It has two-plane break and impressive tilt at times that should make it an effective pitch against both righties and lefties. Johnson has infrequently thrown a low-80s changeup, but the pitch needs plenty of work and much more feel before it’s a legitimate third offering. Johnson’s control is spotty and he’ll need to improve both that and his delivery for scouts to feel confident in a starter profile at the next level. He’s committed to Louisiana State.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Purely amateur thoughts here, but none of the guys we've drafted have the chatter around them that screams budget-breaker.  There's a 5% overage buffer before teams lose future picks.  For the O's that's a $526+k cushion.  My guess is there will be close to $750k-1m to work with.  So, one significant over-slot or 2-3 mid-tiers to spread the risk a bit more.

It’s my belief that the Orioles use the pool money but have never dipped into the 5% overage.  I could be wrong but it’s not their M.O. and I wouldn’t expect anything different this year.

Also, Baumeister, a sophomore, who could go much higher next year, does seem overslot, and toolsy Cunningham could be as well.    Bradfield is probably slot.   

Edited July 11, 2023 by RZNJ

[Jim'sKid26]

22 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I'd like to see them take a shot at Cam Johnson if he is still available.  Maryland kid.  Good frame and left-handed.  Maybe he grew up an Orioles fan.  This is from Baseball America.

School: IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. Source: HS

Commit/Drafted: Louisiana State
Age At Draft: 18.5
BA Grade:55/Extreme
Tools:Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 40. Control: 45.

Johnson is one of the most physical players in the 2023 class with a 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame and plenty of stuff to go along with it. Originally from Maryland, Johnson transferred to IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., where he vastly improved his stock with a strong spring season. He has a crude delivery that features plenty of violence and and some inversion of his arm action in the back of his arm stroke, but he has good arm speed and his low, three-quarter slot creates a tough angle for hitters. As might be expected with his release point, Johnson drives a high groundball rate and his low-90s fastball, which ticked up this spring and has been up to 98 mph, has excellent running life. His go-to secondary is a swing-and-miss breaking ball that was previously in the mid-to-upper 70s but has also ticked up to get to the low 80s this spring. He has always had solid shape to the pitch, and now with more power and hard biting action, the high-spin, sweepy slider looks like an above-average offering. It has two-plane break and impressive tilt at times that should make it an effective pitch against both righties and lefties. Johnson has infrequently thrown a low-80s changeup, but the pitch needs plenty of work and much more feel before it’s a legitimate third offering. Johnson’s control is spotty and he’ll need to improve both that and his delivery for scouts to feel confident in a starter profile at the next level. He’s committed to Louisiana State.

Sounds like a huge injury risk. I'd let him go to college and prove he can throw that hard for a few more seasons. Words like violence scare me. As does bad arm inversion. Throwing 98 with bad mechanics is a big red flag. 

[Rbiggs2525]

They will throw a couple tough signs in today as a back up plan. For instance Carter Young was Nolan McLean replacement last year.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Jammer7]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s my belief that the Orioles use the pool money but have never dipped into the 5% overage.  I could be wrong but it’s not their M.O. and I wouldn’t expect anything different this year.

Also, Baumeister, a sophomore, who could go much higher next year, does seem overslot, and toolsy Cunningham could be as well.    Bradfield is probably slot.   

Mostly agree. I am pretty sure they used the 5% overage to sign Carter Young in 2022. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

I'd like to see them take a shot at Cam Johnson if he is still available.  Maryland kid.  Good frame and left-handed.  Maybe he grew up an Orioles fan.  This is from Baseball America.

School: IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. Source: HS

Commit/Drafted: Louisiana State
Age At Draft: 18.5
BA Grade:55/Extreme
Tools:Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 40. Control: 45.

Johnson is one of the most physical players in the 2023 class with a 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame and plenty of stuff to go along with it. Originally from Maryland, Johnson transferred to IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., where he vastly improved his stock with a strong spring season. He has a crude delivery that features plenty of violence and and some inversion of his arm action in the back of his arm stroke, but he has good arm speed and his low, three-quarter slot creates a tough angle for hitters. As might be expected with his release point, Johnson drives a high groundball rate and his low-90s fastball, which ticked up this spring and has been up to 98 mph, has excellent running life. His go-to secondary is a swing-and-miss breaking ball that was previously in the mid-to-upper 70s but has also ticked up to get to the low 80s this spring. He has always had solid shape to the pitch, and now with more power and hard biting action, the high-spin, sweepy slider looks like an above-average offering. It has two-plane break and impressive tilt at times that should make it an effective pitch against both righties and lefties. Johnson has infrequently thrown a low-80s changeup, but the pitch needs plenty of work and much more feel before it’s a legitimate third offering. Johnson’s control is spotty and he’ll need to improve both that and his delivery for scouts to feel confident in a starter profile at the next level. He’s committed to Louisiana State.

Have to imagine his number is pretty high which may have scared some teams off. The fact that he's got a chance to go to a premier college program in LSU means he's probably heading there at this point unless somebody has enough extra cash and decides to take a flier on him late as an insurance policy against another guy not signing.