Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[bluedog]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You honestly think J.Lopez is a comparable comp to E.Cabrera? Show me a recent trade where a young top 10 prospect (that's what Cabrera was last season) was traded for four players. 

He's not a Top 10 prospect this year. They don't do that trade last year, but this year they might.

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, bluedog said:

He's not a Top 10 prospect this year. They don't do that trade last year, but this year they might.

I just don't see it happening. They lost Max Meyer earlier in the year (Tommy John) and they don't really have another pitching prospect who's close. And they already traded a SP (Lopez) in the pre-season.  They may have had pitching depth at one point, but I don't think they do anymore. 

[bluedog]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I just don't see it happening. They lost Max Meyer earlier in the year (Tommy John) and they don't really have another pitching prospect who's close. And they already traded a SP (Lopez) in the pre-season.  They may have had pitching depth at one point, but I don't think they do anymore. 

Fair point. I assume a trade for one or more SPs would have to precede a trade of ECab. Again - I didn't propose Westburg for ECab and I wouldn't like it if we traded for him.

By the way - Chris Sale was 21 and had 3 more years of control (very similar to ECab) and generated a 4 for one trade. Sale was without question far superior to ECab and required a huge haul to get, but the argument that young high-upside SPs with multiple years of team control don't get traded in 4 for 1 trades isn't true. And before you point out some other reason ECab for 4 O's is different than the Sale trade - of course all trades are different and you can find something unprecedented about almost any proposed trade. The bottom line is a 4 for 1 trade for ECab is plausible, regardless of whether it's likely or not.

White Sox get: Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, Victor Diaz
Red Sox get: Chris Sale

 

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by bluedog

[Sydnor]

38 minutes ago, bluedog said:

That's actually a good question. By stats alone, he's been inferior so far in his career to Bradish. He's got tons of upside, but who knows if he's the 2022 guy that pitched to a 3.01 ERA / 1.07 WHIP (albeit in only 71.2 IP) or the 2023 guy that's rocking a 4.74 ERA / 1.42 WHIP.

I was just answering the questions about Westburg for ECab which is a trade I wouldn't do. I believe that 6 years of Westy is more valuable than 3+ years of an ECab that might end up being 4.00 ERA / 1.3 WHIP guy over his career.

I gave a deeper look at why I think it makes sense yesterday. Also, it’s 6 years of Cabrera.

 

[e16bball]

Reading the recent discussion, I find myself wondering how much the populace would riot if we traded Urias to the Marlins for MiL pitching?

Even if Max Meyer and the two kids they just drafted aren’t on the table, they do have two lefties named Dax Fulton and Jake Eder who are well-regarded young pitchers. Fulton has some Povich vibes as a big thin lefty with a great K rate but unimpressive results at AA (though he’s just 21 still). Eder is just back off Tommy John, but he was annihilating AA at 22 years old before he got hurt. 

I feel like this is the sort of move that Elias/Sig would love to make right now — but they probably can’t, just for the sake of the optics.

 

[Frobby]

Ugh, I would never do this.  From Fangraphs:

The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester

The Orioles have churned out an impressive assortment of hitting prospects the last few years, but the farm system hasn’t been able to come up with starting pitching anywhere near as well. Even assuming that Grayson Rodriguez works out, the Orioles likely need more rotation help and it’s probably going to have to come from outside the organization. That might mean trading away some of their young hitters and watching them succeed elsewhere. The team is contending, but I don’t think the front office is suddenly full of wild gamblers, so I doubt we’ll start seeing names like Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad move for short-term rentals.

Dylan Cease, however, is not a short-term rental; the Orioles would get to keep him until the end of the 2025 season. This may be blasphemy to some, but given their respective contract situations, I’d happily give up more for Cease than I would for Ohtani. Westburg’s stock has shot up this year, and with ZiPS seeing him as an above-average starter in the majors right now, the White Sox could reap the benefits of having him on the team very quickly. Since Cease represents significant value, the Pale Hose are going to need to offer more than just Westburg, so I included two interesting offensive prospects in Fabian and Ortiz who could help shore up the organization’s lackluster depth. I also included Armbruester, a little talked-about pitching prospect who probably has a good shot at fitting in the back of the rotation in the not-too-distant future. 

The big question is just how available Cease actually is. The White Sox are a mess at the moment, but they’ve given every indication that they think they’ll be contenders in 2024. That might make it difficult to get them to part with Cease without a ridiculously lopsided offer. I don’t think the Orioles would go that far, but it’s certainly worth asking.

[bluedog]

23 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Reading the recent discussion, I find myself wondering how much the populace would riot if we traded Urias to the Marlins for MiL pitching?

Even if Max Meyer and the two kids they just drafted aren’t on the table, they do have two lefties named Dax Fulton and Jake Eder who are well-regarded young pitchers. Fulton has some Povich vibes as a big thin lefty with a great K rate but unimpressive results at AA (though he’s just 21 still). Eder is just back off Tommy John, but he was annihilating AA at 22 years old before he got hurt. 

I feel like this is the sort of move that Elias/Sig would love to make right now — but they probably can’t, just for the sake of the optics.

 

I suggested the O's could send Urias and / or Hays (before Mullins got hurt again) to the Fish for pitching a couple of weeks back and got trashed for it.

People really dislike the idea of trading vets from the team during a playoff run. We know Elias has no problem with doing that given what he did last year, but it's not a popular idea on OH for sure.

I would have no problem moving Urias for P prospects if it cleared space for Ortiz at the major league level.

Also, Elias is the guy that traded away our All-Star closer and our most popular hometown "feel good" player in the midst of a playoff run for a bunch of prospects. I seriously doubt he takes optics into consideration when making these kinds of decisions.

Edited July 28, 2023 by bluedog

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, bluedog said:

You have no idea if my counter is laughable until you know who the XXs are.

BTW, Basallo, Ortiz, and Hall would net Cease 50.1 vs 51.0

It also likes Hall, Norby, Ortiz, Stowers and Urias for Cease

 

BTW, I think it seriously undervalues Norby and Povich. Both are less than a median value of 10.

[bluedog]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ugh, I would never do this.  

Agreed. Except for the guy that suggested Holliday for Cease last week, that's the worst O's trade idea I've seen floated anywhere this year.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ugh, I would never do this.  From Fangraphs:

The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester

The Orioles have churned out an impressive assortment of hitting prospects the last few years, but the farm system hasn’t been able to come up with starting pitching anywhere near as well. Even assuming that Grayson Rodriguez works out, the Orioles likely need more rotation help and it’s probably going to have to come from outside the organization. That might mean trading away some of their young hitters and watching them succeed elsewhere. The team is contending, but I don’t think the front office is suddenly full of wild gamblers, so I doubt we’ll start seeing names like Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad move for short-term rentals.

Dylan Cease, however, is not a short-term rental; the Orioles would get to keep him until the end of the 2025 season. This may be blasphemy to some, but given their respective contract situations, I’d happily give up more for Cease than I would for Ohtani. Westburg’s stock has shot up this year, and with ZiPS seeing him as an above-average starter in the majors right now, the White Sox could reap the benefits of having him on the team very quickly. Since Cease represents significant value, the Pale Hose are going to need to offer more than just Westburg, so I included two interesting offensive prospects in Fabian and Ortiz who could help shore up the organization’s lackluster depth. I also included Armbruester, a little talked-about pitching prospect who probably has a good shot at fitting in the back of the rotation in the not-too-distant future. 

The big question is just how available Cease actually is. The White Sox are a mess at the moment, but they’ve given every indication that they think they’ll be contenders in 2024. That might make it difficult to get them to part with Cease without a ridiculously lopsided offer. I don’t think the Orioles would go that far, but it’s certainly worth asking.

I was about to have a panic attack thinking that was a real trade for a second. I’m not giving up that package in exchange for Cease. 

[bluedog]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

BTW, Basallo, Ortiz, and Hall would net Cease 50.1 vs 51.0

It also likes Hall, Norby, Ortiz, Stowers and Urias for Cease

 

BTW, I think it seriously undervalues Norby and Povich. Both are less than a median value of 10.

That trade tool REALLY likes Coby Mayo and thinks Holliday is 1.6 times more valuable than Cease (which I think still undervalues him).

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ugh, I would never do this.  From Fangraphs:

The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester

The Orioles have churned out an impressive assortment of hitting prospects the last few years, but the farm system hasn’t been able to come up with starting pitching anywhere near as well. Even assuming that Grayson Rodriguez works out, the Orioles likely need more rotation help and it’s probably going to have to come from outside the organization. That might mean trading away some of their young hitters and watching them succeed elsewhere. The team is contending, but I don’t think the front office is suddenly full of wild gamblers, so I doubt we’ll start seeing names like Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad move for short-term rentals.

Dylan Cease, however, is not a short-term rental; the Orioles would get to keep him until the end of the 2025 season. This may be blasphemy to some, but given their respective contract situations, I’d happily give up more for Cease than I would for Ohtani. Westburg’s stock has shot up this year, and with ZiPS seeing him as an above-average starter in the majors right now, the White Sox could reap the benefits of having him on the team very quickly. Since Cease represents significant value, the Pale Hose are going to need to offer more than just Westburg, so I included two interesting offensive prospects in Fabian and Ortiz who could help shore up the organization’s lackluster depth. I also included Armbruester, a little talked-about pitching prospect who probably has a good shot at fitting in the back of the rotation in the not-too-distant future. 

The big question is just how available Cease actually is. The White Sox are a mess at the moment, but they’ve given every indication that they think they’ll be contenders in 2024. That might make it difficult to get them to part with Cease without a ridiculously lopsided offer. I don’t think the Orioles would go that far, but it’s certainly worth asking.

I’m okay with the value but not two middle infielders in the same trade.  I’d actually prefer replacing Westburg with Mayo or Cowser but I need to take a closer look at Cease.   Getting someone like Cease is the whole idea behind draft and development heavy on the position prospects.   We’d still have Kjerstad, Mayo or Cowser,  Westburg or Ortiz, all 4 of our best pitching prospects.   And a young power pitcher who was CY worthy last year, languishing on an under achieving team this year.

[Greg Pappas]

Argh!  Too many threads and I'm partly to blame! LOL!  I am seeing the same discussions crossing over into multiple threads and it's really difficult to keep up with.

As regards the deadline, we need, "ONE DEADLINE THREAD TO RULE THEM ALL" LOL! Compact some of these threads with one?  Maybe take Which players/prospects would you be okay with trading? and 2023 Trade Deadline Hot Stove and put it all into Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline  ??
Just a thought, but it may help. 
 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, bluedog said:

That trade tool REALLY likes Coby Mayo and thinks Holliday is 1.6 times more valuable than Cease (which I think still undervalues him).

I think it undervalues Kjerstad as well 19.9….. I think Holiday, Kjerstad, Mayo, Rodriguez should be untouchable. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Post a link. Show me one single rumor suggesting Seattle would trade Woo or Miller. 

Here is the most recent one..IE a link to a Rosenthal article from today.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-rumors-mets-may-offer-justin-verlander-mark-canha-tommy-pham-likelier-seattle-dangles-pitching/amp/