“Ortiz is going to have a long future as a starting shortstop, and here is the most likely place”

[Bemorewins]

44 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

I disagree; Mateo is made for a role on a championship team, but not as a starter.  Rather a defensive replacement, pinch runner, and pinch hitter vs LHP (currently a 784 OPS) where we will see a lot of lefty/righty chess moves in the post season.

Why would you want him to replace anyone with defense? His defense has not been all that good this season. As a matter of fact, I would prefer to leave Gunnar at SS or Ortiz (if they finally bring him up or figure what they are going to do with him). Neither of those guys will ever need to be replaced defensively for Mateo.

Further the whole idea of a defensive replacement at SS I think is overblown to begin with. It rarely ever happens because almost all of the time your best defensive player plays SS to begin with.

The only thing that Mateo does well is run fast. He is a superb athlete. But that is not something that is useful enough to keep around for an entire season. Pinch running doesn't hold enough value in and of itself to justify a season long spot on the 26 man roster IMO.

[Bemorewins]

31 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

Would you offer him a three-year $30 million deal?

Absolutely!! But he will probably get something closer to 13/14 a year, which we should be all over as well. We are not paying anyone. That's going to have to change soon for morale of the players. 

[25 Nuggets]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Why would you want him to replace anyone with defense? His defense has not been all that good this season. As a matter of fact, I would prefer to leave Gunnar at SS or Ortiz (if they finally bring him up or figure what they are going to do with him). Neither of those guys will ever need to be replaced defensively for Mateo.

Further the whole idea of a defensive replacement at SS I think is overblown to begin with. It rarely ever happens because almost all of the time your best defensive player plays SS to begin with.

The only thing that Mateo does well is run fast. He is a superb athlete. But that is not something that is useful enough to keep around for an entire season. Pinch running doesn't hold enough value in and of itself to justify a season long spot on the 26 man roster IMO.

Ouch.  I guess we'll agree to disagree.

[interloper]

How do we get Oritz on this roster? Mateo has been playing just well enough against RHP that I don't think he's in line for that DFA we've all kind of been expecting. Urias and Frazier are healthy. Westburg is playing well. No trades opened up a spot. 

It looks to me like it will take an injury unless they find room on an expanded roster. But that will surely include a pitcher and catcher. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You are a hard head.  Elias will be happy to pay Santander on a one year contract and decide next November if he wants to offer a QO and get a draft pick.    

The QO is an interesting idea.   So lets think about it.    

If the O's go that route they would get a full year of Santander services in 2024 plus a comp pick in the low 30's in the draft.   That is pretty good.  Paying he 12-14m  for one year is not a problem.  There is a risk of injury or a down year.

Or 

Elias trades Santander for probably 4 minor leaguers over the winter.   No risk of injury or down year

Or 

Elias keeps Santander until the deadline  and trade him for then.   For probably  less  prospects as a rental.  The O's get  4 months of Santander  production.  There is the risk of injury and a down year.

Also to be considered.  The O's have two 1st round picks to replace Santander at the beginning of the 2024 season.   Kjerstad who is a power threat and Cowser who is more a potentially good OBP players.  And save 13m that would have been paid to Santander.

When I look at the offense the O's have with Mullins, Adley, Gunnar, O'Hearn, Mountcastle, Hays plus the potential of Westburg, Ortiz, Kjerstad and Cowser  I think the team will be able to be good offensively without Santander.   Potentially a better offense with Santander but at the expense of playing time for Kjerstad and Cowser. 

Are the O's more likely to win the World Series with Santander or with more playing time for Kjerstad and Cowser.

At his current pace Santander will have 29 HR, 93 RBI,  261/335/482/817.    Can Kjerstand and Cowswer match that?   Most likely a slower start to the season but with their ceiling maybe a higher  overall OPS.  Look at what Gunnar is doing.

I think if Elias can do what he wants he will take the off season to try to get the best deal he can for Santander.  Probably 4 pitchers.  One with the ceiling of Bradish.

 

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

57 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The QO is an interesting idea.   So lets think about it.    

If the O's go that route they would get a full year of Santander services in 2024 plus a comp pick in the low 30's in the draft.   That is pretty good.  Paying he 12-14m  for one year is not a problem.  There is a risk of injury or a down year.

Or 

Elias trades Santander for probably 4 minor leaguers over the winter.   No risk of injury or down year

Or 

Elias keeps Santander until the deadline  and trade him for then.   For probably  less  prospects as a rental.  The O's get  4 months of Santander  production.  There is the risk of injury and a down year.

Also to be considered.  The O's have two 1st round picks to replace Santander at the beginning of the 2024 season.   Kjerstad who is a power threat and Cowser who is more a potentially good OBP players.  And save 13m that would have been paid to Santander.

When I look at the offense the O's have with Mullins, Adley, Gunnar, O'Hearn, Mountcastle, Hays plus the potential of Westburg, Ortiz, Kjerstad and Cowser  I think the team will be able to be good offensively without Santander.   Potentially a better offense with Santander but at the expense of playing time for Kjerstad and Cowser. 

Are the O's more likely to win the World Series with Santander or with more playing time for Kjerstad and Cowser.

At his current pace Santander will have 29 HR, 93 RBI,  261/335/482/817.    Can Kjerstand and Cowswer match that?   Most likely a slower start to the season but with their ceiling maybe a higher  overall OPS.  Look at what Gunnar is doing.

I think if Elias can do what he wants he will take the off season to try to get the best deal he can for Santander.  Probably 4 pitchers.  One with the ceiling of Bradish.

 

 

Let’s look at your point about having cheap options like Kjerstad and Cowser to replace Santander’s production.   When faced with the prospect of having Urias, Westburg, and Ortiz to vie for the 2nd base job, Elias decided to spend 8M on Adam Frazier instead of handing the job to one of Westburg or Ortiz.   You should learn from history.   Elias will be very happy to essentially have Santander on a one year contract while Cowser and Kjerstad get acclimated.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

How do we get Oritz on this roster? Mateo has been playing just well enough against RHP that I don't think he's in line for that DFA we've all kind of been expecting. Urias and Frazier are healthy. Westburg is playing well. No trades opened up a spot. 

It looks to me like it will take an injury unless they find room on an expanded roster. But that will surely include a pitcher and catcher. 

There might not even be a spot for him (or Kjerstad) with the expanded roster without an injury, if both Hicks and Mullins come back and they are only sending down McKenna. Assuming they want the extra pitcher and are only adding one position player, they’d have to send down Cowser or Mountcastle or DFA Mateo or Frazier. Right now sending down Cowser is the only realistic possibility there. 

This off-season Frazier and Hicks will be gone, but they’ll still have 5 vet OF/1B/DH (Mullins, Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, O’Hearn). Barring a trade, you can add one more to that group and expect them to get fairly regular ABs, presumably Cowser OR Kjerstad.

Leaving just 2 bench spots in flux - if Ortiz is starting SS, then it’s Urias and Mateo. But if they want a proper defensive backup CF instead of Cowser or Hays, then somebody has to go. And if they also want BOTH Cowser and Kjerstad to get playing time, then two somebodies have to go. 

[MCO'sFan]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let’s look at your point about having cheap options like Kjerstad and Cowser to replace Santander’s production.   When faced with the prospect of having Urias, Westburg, and Ortiz to vie for the 2nd base job, Elias decided to spend 8M on Adam Frazier instead of handing the job to one of Westburg or Ortiz.   You should learn from history.   Elias will be very happy to essentially have Santander on a one year contract while Cowser and Kjerstad get acclimated.

This will be an interesting decision for the offseason. I don't think the comp between the 2nd base decision is completely viable. I think ME wanted a LHH. Both Ortiz and Westburg are RHH. Obviously, I don't know which way it will go but I have been working with the belief that the O's will not spend big $$$ to keep their own players or sign others (AAV of 20M or higher) for multiple years. I think they follow the general rule of selling them off for prospects with a year or 2 left on their contract. I think Santander is traded this offseason. I don't think ME rolls the dice and just assumes that Santander will have significant value at the trade deadline or that he won't take the QO is offered. I like Santander, so I hope I am wrong. 

[RZNJ]

Teoscar Hernandez is a pretty good comp.   He actually probably had a better offensive history than Santander.   He was coming into his FA year and Toronto was able to swap him for a setup guy coming off a really good season and 3 years of team control, in Erik Swanson, and a warm body.

I think Elias will be happy to stick with Santander for 2024 with the possibility of getting a pick.   This assumes the team is in the playoff hunt at the deadline next year.

[sportsfan8703]

It will be interesting to see if Holliday forces his way to AAA.  His defense at SS might be the one thing that holds him back from coming up this year.  Point being, is that there is a path for Ortiz here.  It's just a short window between OD and mid June 2024.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Let’s look at your point about having cheap options like Kjerstad and Cowser to replace Santander’s production.   When faced with the prospect of having Urias, Westburg, and Ortiz to vie for the 2nd base job, Elias decided to spend 8M on Adam Frazier instead of handing the job to one of Westburg or Ortiz.   You should learn from history.   Elias will be very happy to essentially have Santander on a one year contract while Cowser and Kjerstad get acclimated.

Urias was coming off a knee injury.   Westburg hit for a 247 average at AAA in 2022,  Ortiz only had  115 plate appearance at AAA in 2022.

Its not the same with Cowser and Kjerstad.    Both will be  significantly ahead in AAA experience and success.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

The QO is an interesting idea.   So lets think about it.    

If the O's go that route they would get a full year of Santander services in 2024 plus a comp pick in the low 30's in the draft.   That is pretty good.  Paying he 12-14m  for one year is not a problem.  There is a risk of injury or a down year.

Or 

Elias trades Santander for probably 4 minor leaguers over the winter.   No risk of injury or down year

Or 

Elias keeps Santander until the deadline  and trade him for then.   For probably  less  prospects as a rental.  The O's get  4 months of Santander  production.  There is the risk of injury and a down year.

Also to be considered.  The O's have two 1st round picks to replace Santander at the beginning of the 2024 season.   Kjerstad who is a power threat and Cowser who is more a potentially good OBP players.  And save 13m that would have been paid to Santander.

When I look at the offense the O's have with Mullins, Adley, Gunnar, O'Hearn, Mountcastle, Hays plus the potential of Westburg, Ortiz, Kjerstad and Cowser  I think the team will be able to be good offensively without Santander.   Potentially a better offense with Santander but at the expense of playing time for Kjerstad and Cowser. 

Are the O's more likely to win the World Series with Santander or with more playing time for Kjerstad and Cowser.

At his current pace Santander will have 29 HR, 93 RBI,  261/335/482/817.    Can Kjerstand and Cowswer match that?   Most likely a slower start to the season but with their ceiling maybe a higher  overall OPS.  Look at what Gunnar is doing.

I think if Elias can do what he wants he will take the off season to try to get the best deal he can for Santander.  Probably 4 pitchers.  One with the ceiling of Bradish.

 

 

You believe that Cowser is the tier of prospect as Gunnar? I ask because you referenced Gunnar by saying “look at what Gunnar is doing?” Do you think what Gunnar is doing now Cowser could replicate next year? 

[Billy F-Face3]

4 hours ago, Fan4Life said:

Is there a money difference between keeping Santander over Hays?

Santander is going to cost somewhere around $11-12 Million next year depending on arbitration. Hays is probably going to cost us somewhere around $7 Million by my guess. Those are player friendly estimates to keep the player happy and avoid damaging the relationship.

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Urias was coming off a knee injury.   Westburg hit for a 247 average at AAA in 2022,  Ortiz only had  115 plate appearance at AAA in 2022.

Its not the same with Cowser and Kjerstad.    Both will be  significantly ahead in AAA experience and success.

Westburg’s OPS in Norfolk was .860 in August (118 PA) and .944 in September (120 PA).   Ortiz hit .346 with a .967 OPS in 115 PA.    I don’t know what they thought about Urias but it’s obvious that he was back 100% in time for the season.

If Cowser goes back down to Norfolk before turning things around up here it’s hard to see that inspiring the confidence of trading away someone like Santander.   And Kjerstad hasn’t been tested at all yet.  I believe both players will hit but Elias isn’t going into next season putting all his eggs in those two baskets.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

You believe that Cowser is the tier of prospect as Gunnar? I ask because you referenced Gunnar by saying “look at what Gunnar is doing?” Do you think what Gunnar is doing now Cowser could replicate next year? 

I'll have to say I don't know.  After a great minor league showing, for the first two months of 2023 Gunnar was hitting around .200.    After a great minor league showing, Cowser is now struggling.  Cowser was drafted higher than Gunnar.    There is reason to believe that Cowser could become really, really good .....or not.   I don't know right now.

What I do know is both were promoted to the majors a year  before they had to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.  Does Elias know what he is doing or not.