Grade our two deadline moves

[Roll Tide]

54 minutes ago, dedwretched said:

Trading away a DFAd Eduard Bazardo for a solid relief prospect in Logan Rinehart is an A+ move.

I didn’t consider this but Rinehart basically replaces what we gave up for Fujinama. In fact he might be better than Lucas. 

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

The trades themselves aren't that bad. The fact that we have the second best team in baseball and a real shot at a championship and did hardly nothing sucks. Other teams around us improved, and we basically stood still.

Maybe it’s me, but the fact that we have the second best record in baseball and have a real shot at a championship doesn’t suck, regardless of what we did at the deadline.  And I don’t think we did hardly nothing.  We could have done more, but the moves we made should help us. 

[jdwilde1]

[Alasdaire]

What we needed by the deadline was help in the bullpen and the rotation. We acquired help in the bullpen and the rotation. And both Fuji and Flaherty have enough arm talent that you can dream they'll find another level for a playoff run.

The position where we could afford to spend and not feel it is infield prospects. Particularly infield prospects other than the top-100 guys since it's impossible to find a path to playing time for them. Cesar Prieto (and Darell Hernaiz before him) is an infield prospect who is not a top-100 guy but still has legitimate value.

And I personally maintain this team is ahead of schedule and shouldn't "spend" it's one or two shots at making a big trade now unless the opportunity is too good to pass up. If the Tigers had been desperate and accepted pennies for the dollar for ERod because of his no-trade clause then fine, make a big splash. But if the White Sox are treating Cease like an ace and asking for Kjerstad + Ortiz + Hall, then wait until an actual ace presents himself even if that's this winter or next deadline.

So if you had told me a month ago that we could add a high-upside bullpen arm and a stable-with-potential starter in return for a AAAA guy, a prospect who has no place in this organization, and two flier arms, I would say that's an unmitigated success. They signaled to the team that they're invested, added pieces that provide the present team with an opportunity to get better, and didn't mortgage the future in any way.

A/A-

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, dedwretched said:

Calm down. You're acting like we traded for Patrick Corbin or Jordan Lyles.

Verlander and Scherzer = Niemann Marcus

Ed Rod and Montgomery = Nordstrom's

Civale and Lorenzen = Target

Flaherty and Rich Hill = Walmart

Lance Lynn = Dumpster Diving

[Just Regular]

Still having Westburg and Ortiz and Norby around will help with the Holliday 129 PA or less thing next year.

I hope his cold is getting better.

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, Since1984 said:

Year 1 of competitive status and the team added depth. B rated! hoping this offseason results in a #2 SP+ acquisition. There is a reason why they didn’t trade top prospects 

Here's the problem.  You can get front-line starters in three ways:  you develop them, you sign them as free agents, or you trade for them.

We've developed Gray Rod, and he has the potential to be great.  But given Elias' drafting and development preferences it seems unlikely that we will develop any other front line starters for the foreseeable future.

The problem with free agents is that they require a lot of money.  Even if we didn't have a tightwad owner, we would be a small market team that is not going to outbid the big-city teams for established front-line starters.  

So that leaves trades.  Here we have a potential advantage, because we have a highly rated farm system already, and we have a great talent for drafting and developing position players.   We have more good position player prospects than we have places to play them.   We should be in the business of trading position player prospects for front-line pitching--indeed, I can't think of another way that we will be able to get front-line pitching going forward.  

Unfortunately, Elias' performance this week does not inspire confidence that he is willing to spend the prospect capital it will take to get front-line starting pitching in a trade.  We wound up shopping at Walmart, and you can get a good deal at Walmart, but you can't buy high quality merchandise there.   

[Alasdaire]

3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Here's the problem.  You can get front-line starters in three ways:  you develop them, you sign them as free agents, or you trade for them.

We've developed Gray Rod, and he has the potential to be great.  But given Elias' drafting and development preferences it seems unlikely that we will develop any other front line starters for the foreseeable future.

The problem with free agents is that they require a lot of money.  Even if we didn't have a tightwad owner, we would be a small market team that is not going to outbid the big-city teams for established front-line starters.  

So that leaves trades.  Here we have a potential advantage, because we have a highly rated farm system already, and we have a great talent for drafting and developing position players.   We have more good position player prospects than we have places to play them.   We should be in the business of trading position player prospects for front-line pitching--indeed, I can't think of another way that we will be able to get front-line pitching going forward.  

Unfortunately, Elias' performance this week does not inspire confidence that he is willing to spend the prospect capital it will take to get front-line starting pitching in a trade.  We wound up shopping at Walmart, and you can get a good deal at Walmart, but you can't buy high quality merchandise there.   

Even if everything you said is true and the O's simply cannot develop or sign pitchers and must trade for them, that doesn't mean they should make the trade now.

In order to acquire a pitcher of the caliber you're talking about, the O's would have to put together a hefty package. Like I mentioned a few posts above, the White Sox could have plausibly been asking for two of Mayo/Kjerstad/Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz/Norby plus one of Hall/Povich/McDermott. And not the combination you want to see of those guys--probably one that causes you pain.

Could we do that and be fine? Probably. But it's not a bottomless well. The O's have one move like that in them. Maybe two if they want to go "all in." Then they run out of the existing capital. It has been all fun and games stacking talent for the past four years when we've had massive draft bonus pools and top-of-the-round picks, but it becomes increasingly more difficult to do that when you have a lot less draft money and are picking after all of the consensus top players are off of the board. We saw the beginnings of that this year, and it's probably only going to get more difficult.

Hopefully this is made up for with the time they've put into international scouting. But there's no guarantee that we will continue to produce this kind of talent in the minors. And if we don't, then what we have now is finite. And if it's finite, then we have to be right about deploying it. That sort of opportunity might not have been available this deadline. And to talk yourself into a move because we "have to" trade, and in the process expend your finite capital for a pitcher who you don't have strong convictions about, would be malfeasance.

[survivedc]

19 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Here's the problem.  You can get front-line starters in three ways:  you develop them, you sign them as free agents, or you trade for them.

We've developed Gray Rod, and he has the potential to be great.  But given Elias' drafting and development preferences it seems unlikely that we will develop any other front line starters for the foreseeable future.

The problem with free agents is that they require a lot of money.  Even if we didn't have a tightwad owner, we would be a small market team that is not going to outbid the big-city teams for established front-line starters.  

So that leaves trades.  Here we have a potential advantage, because we have a highly rated farm system already, and we have a great talent for drafting and developing position players.   We have more good position player prospects than we have places to play them.   We should be in the business of trading position player prospects for front-line pitching--indeed, I can't think of another way that we will be able to get front-line pitching going forward.  

Unfortunately, Elias' performance this week does not inspire confidence that he is willing to spend the prospect capital it will take to get front-line starting pitching in a trade.  We wound up shopping at Walmart, and you can get a good deal at Walmart, but you can't buy high quality merchandise there.   

It doesn’t seem to me that you see guys with multiple years left being moved at the trade deadline. Elias knows, I’m sure, that he needs to acquire quality starting pitching, but he isn’t going to be suckered into a bad trade. It doesn’t mean he won’t part with high end prospects to get it, just that what was out there wasn’t worth it right now.

[24fps]

I said B-/C+.  I suspect that after the dust settles some missed opportunities will reveal themselves and I'll want to move it down a notch.  Michael Lorenzen in a case in point.  The Phillies acquired him for Hao-Yu Lee who is the rough equivalent of Aberdeen's Issac DeLeon.  The O's couldn't match that?  Lorenzen's 2023 ERA+ is 122 which is greater than any Orioles starter save Bradish and 25 points higher than Flaherty's.  Yes analysis is more complicated than a 5-minute visit to BBRef and Lorenzen is not the key to the post season, but he's not chopped liver either.

I very much support the idea of addressing the O's pitching imbalance in the coming offseason, but I suspect the 2023 O's could have comfortably received a little more support than they got.

[Three Run Homer]

7 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Even if everything you said is true and the O's simply cannot develop or sign pitchers and must trade for them, that doesn't mean they should make the trade now.

In order to acquire a pitcher of the caliber you're talking about, the O's would have to put together a hefty package. Like I mentioned a few posts above, the White Sox could have plausibly been asking for two of Mayo/Kjerstad/Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz/Norby plus one of Hall/Povich/McDermott. And not the combination you want to see of those guys--probably one that causes you pain.

Could we do that and be fine? Probably. But it's not a bottomless well. The O's have one move like that in them. Maybe two if they want to go "all in." Then they run out of the existing capital. It has been all fun and games stacking talent for the past four years when we've had massive draft bonus pools and top-of-the-round picks, but it becomes increasingly more difficult to do that when you have a lot less draft money and are picking after all of the consensus top players are off of the board. We saw the beginnings of that this year, and it's probably only going to get more difficult.

Hopefully this is made up for with the time they've put into international scouting. But there's no guarantee that we will continue to produce this kind of talent in the minors. And if we don't, then what we have now is finite. And if it's finite, then we have to be right about deploying it. That sort of opportunity might not have been available this deadline. And to talk yourself into a move because we "have to" trade, and in the process expend your finite capital for a pitcher who you don't have strong convictions about, would be malfeasance.

I agree that it was probably not worth it to meet the White Sox' asking price for Dylan Cease.  I'm not convinced that he is an ace, and they apparently wanted a king's ransom for him.  

The one controllable starter that might have been worth that kind of package this year was Mitch Keller.  I don't know if the Orioles ever had serious conversations with Pittsburgh.

But even if this wasn't the year to do a Verlander 2017 trade, there were certainly opportunities to get a front-line rental that would have given them a better chance win a championship this season.  I don't believe that it would have taken two of the top-line guys you mentioned above to get Ed Rod or Jordan Montgomery.   Maybe one guy rated 5-10 and one 10-15.  

[Alasdaire]

3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I agree that it was probably not worth it to meet the White Sox' asking price for Dylan Cease.  I'm not convinced that he is an ace, and they apparently wanted a king's ransom for him.  

The one controllable starter that might have been worth that kind of package this year was Mitch Keller.  I don't know if the Orioles ever had serious conversations with Pittsburgh.

But even if this wasn't the year to do a Verlander 2017 trade, there were certainly opportunities to get a front-line rental that would have given them a better chance win a championship this season.  I don't believe that it would have taken two of the top-line guys you mentioned above to get Ed Rod or Jordan Montgomery.   Maybe one guy rated 5-10 and one 10-15.  

Fair enough. But if you believe Elias in his post-deadline presser, they tried. They put ambitious offers out there. The other teams just didn't bite.

If the Orioles offered Westburg or Norby and the Tigers are demanding Kjerstad or Ortiz, what're you gonna do? It might all look the same on paper and by rankings, but the O's probably have pretty clear preferences for some players over others.

There might come a day when you do what it takes to get the deal done, but it doesn't feel like that's necessary now. If the other teams don't want to play ball, then go home and come back tomorrow.

[Three Run Homer]

8 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Fair enough. But if you believe Elias in his post-deadline presser, they tried. They put ambitious offers out there. The other teams just didn't bite.

If the Orioles offered Westburg or Norby and the Tigers are demanding Kjerstad or Ortiz, what're you gonna do? It might all look the same on paper and by rankings, but the O's probably have pretty clear preferences for some players over others.

There might come a day when you do what it takes to get the deal done, but it doesn't feel like that's necessary now. If the other teams don't want to play ball, then go home and come back tomorrow.

But I keep coming back to the fact that other teams were able to make reasonable trades for impact talent this cycle, despite having less prospect talent to play with.  Why shouldn't we expect Elias to be able to do the same?  

[ChipTait]

23 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Fair enough. But if you believe Elias in his post-deadline presser, they tried. They put ambitious offers out there. The other teams just didn't bite.

If the Orioles offered Westburg or Norby and the Tigers are demanding Kjerstad or Ortiz, what're you gonna do? It might all look the same on paper and by rankings, but the O's probably have pretty clear preferences for some players over others.

There might come a day when you do what it takes to get the deal done, but it doesn't feel like that's necessary now. If the other teams don't want to play ball, then go home and come back tomorrow.

I'm with you. 

In this new playoff alignment (which is getting way too close to the NBA or NHL for my tastes) the sellers are fewer, and their asking prices are higher.

The AL has 10 teams with W/L records above .500, none more than 3 games out of the last WC berth.

The NL has 9 above .500.  San Diego is two games below .500, and only 5 out of a WC.

In this format, there were only so many teams to cannibalize from.

I'm in the camp that believes incremental moves for improvement in 2023 only prepares us for complete domination moving forward.  Our organizational depth remains strong, and can be spent better in the future when there is a greater need.

 

 

[Billy F-Face3]

If I'm honest, I don't like giving up Showalter; Maybe I'm higher on his than most people, but I feel he'll be special.  And I don't think Flaherty does much to help. We already tried the same tactic when we traded for Cole Irvin and in spite of a few great games since he returned, the comments on this message board seem to indicate there aren't many fans comfortable enough letting him start while Wells is taking a breather and refocusing in AA.

I'd probably look more fondly at that deal if it was just Prieto.  I'm convinced Flaherty was only chosen because of his cheap financial contract and we have an ownership situation that limits our payroll flexibility.

I think the jury is still out on the Fujinami and Rinehart trades, but I'm optimistic about those.