Pick the Orioles win total.

[spleen1015]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

What? That didn’t happen

Ok, so I misremembered. They lost 12 of 15 going into and coming out of the AS break.

I never thought they'd lose 12 of 15 and it happened.

[Frobby]

Both Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs project the Orioles to finish with 95 wins, so 22-22 the rest of the way.  But that strikes me as very conservative.  

The O’s have a .619 winning percentage which, if maintained, projects out to 100 wins.  

They have a .550 pythagorean winning percentage, which if applied to the remaining games, would put them at 97 wins.  

The teams they already have played have a collective .511 winning percentage.  The teams they have remaining have a .480 winning percentage.  Depending on how you calculate it, that should be worth 1-2 extra wins over the remaining 44 games.

So in my opinion, the O’s “should” win between 98 and 102 games.   I’ll put them in the 98-99 category but I’d love to see them reach the century mark.

 



 

[maybenxtyr]

I was dead wrong at the beginning of the season. I thought they would flip from the wins and losses from last season. 

 

I vote for 100, because I've been proven wrong for doubting this group.

[emmett16]

They continue to improve and gain confidence.  I think they will keep the pedal to the metal while others wilt.  I think they have another big winning streak in them.  Going pure optimist 104

Edited August 14, 2023 by emmett16

[tntoriole]

46 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Preseason poll just had the following over 90 wins:

@DirtyBird @sevastras(90-108) @fansince1988(94) @tntoriole(94 winning the East by 2 over MFYs) @wildcard(92) @Big Al and @Aristotelian

@Can_of_corn had the Os under .500, forever the optimist.

Looks like they are going to exceed my wild prediction!!! Pedal to the metal!!! 

[Uli2001]

I see no reason why the Orioles can't play .700 ball against the remaining schedule. It's a weaker schedule than they have been playing for the past two months. This would be 31 wins, and hence 104 wins for the season. I know this is a bold statement, but I would say it's probable. There are many variables and you can't be sure, of course, but it's more than possible.

[Uli2001]

23 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I was dead wrong at the beginning of the season. I thought they would flip from the wins and losses from last season. 

 

I vote for 100, because I've been proven wrong for doubting this group.

That's okay,. you were trying to keep your expectations low. They were indeed low coming into this season. Next season, they will be high. It will be interesting to see how the organization will handle that.

[ChosenOne21]

54 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

I see no reason why the Orioles can't play .700 ball against the remaining schedule. It's a weaker schedule than they have been playing for the past two months. This would be 31 wins, and hence 104 wins for the season. I know this is a bold statement, but I would say it's probable. There are many variables and you can't be sure, of course, but it's more than possible.

Playing .700 ball over a month and a half is pretty incredible for any team. Sure, it could happen, but I'd say the odds are always against it.

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

I see no reason why the Orioles can't play .700 ball against the remaining schedule. It's a weaker schedule than they have been playing for the past two months. This would be 31 wins, and hence 104 wins for the season. I know this is a bold statement, but I would say it's probable. There are many variables and you can't be sure, of course, but it's more than possible.

I think you are vastly overestimating the difference between playing a group of opponents with a .511 winning percentage (our schedule so far) and a group with a .480 winning percentage (our remaining schedule).   On average, you’d be 1-2 games better against the weaker group over 44 games.  But hey, I hope you’re right.  

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you are vastly overestimating the difference between playing a group of opponents with a .511 winning percentage (our schedule so far) and a group with a .480 winning percentage (our remaining schedule).   On average, you’d be 1-2 games better against the weaker group over 44 games.  But hey, I hope you’re right.  

I agree with the overall point (re: playing .700 is very hard), but think it's worth mentioning that several of the teams we're playing are likely worse than their current record. They traded guys off, and in the case of the Rays have lost two key players for different reasons. 

We'll see, but I like our chances of going over 100.

Edited August 14, 2023 by LookinUp

[tntoriole]

56 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree with the overall point (re: playing .700 is very hard), but think it's worth mentioning that several of the teams we're playing are likely worse than their current record. They traded guys off, and in the case of the Rays have lost two key players for different reasons. 

We'll see, but I like our chances of going over 100.

100 wins would be the first for an Os team in 44 years .. 1979 

[SteveA]

10 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

100 wins would be the first for an Os team in 44 years .. 1979 

43 years .. 1980

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, SteveA said:

43 years .. 1980

True .. last Oriole playoff team to win 100 games was 1979 lol

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by tntoriole

[Roll Tide]

I think this is a 100 win team.

[WarehouseChatter]

It’s crazy to me that this team could (easily) win the most games of any Orioles team in 40+ years! I say “easily” based on strength of schedule remaining. The “now” and future is bright. Could you imagine if we added a TOR starter in the offseason? I just hope all aligns with the team and ownership.