Is Flaherty injured or sick? Kremer starting tonight.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

The Orioles have, far and away, the best intel on Showalter. They've scouted him and watched him train/play. If they thought he had the kind of upside you're guessing he has, I highly doubt they would have included him in the trade.

Obviously a kid that young can put things together in ways that can't be foreseen. And it's worth bringing those types of guys into the system because of that. But the fact that he was likely the third addition to a multi-prospect deal for a rental who isn't particularly good should tell you what the Orioles--who know him way better than you, I, or the Cardinals--think about his value.

I think the O’s know Showalter has a lot of talent and potential.  They gave him $400 k which is 5th round money, and he’s come along nicely and was having a good year at Delmarva at age 19.   But sometimes you give up a guy like that, who’s 3-4 years away from the majors, to help get a guy you need now.  You don’t know if they’ll turn out to be Josh Hader or Toby Myers, two other highly regarded young pitchers we traded away in deadline deals. Hader ($40 k bonus, 19th round), who was having a nice year at Delmarva at 19, required TJ surgery after being traded but turned into a multi-year all star.  Myers ($225 k bonus, 6th round) was pitching well at Aberdeen (then a short-season A team) at 18 after being drafted at 17.  I remember that when @Tony-OHdid his post-2013 top 30 list, he was asked where he would have put Hader if he was still in our organization, and he said around 10th.  And I remember Tony being disappointed that we traded Myers.  In both cases, they were guys seen as having a high upside, but far from certain to reach the majors, and in any event being far away time-wise.

[terpoh]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the O’s know Showalter has a lot of talent and potential.  They gave him $400 k which is 5th round money, and he’s come along nicely and was having a good year at Delmarva at age 19.   But sometimes you give up a guy like that, who’s 3-4 years away from the majors, to help get a guy you need now.  You don’t know if they’ll turn out to be Josh Hader or Toby Myers, two other highly regarded young pitchers we traded away in deadline deals. Hader ($40 k bonus, 19th round), who was having a nice year at Delmarva at 19, required TJ surgery after being traded but turned into a multi-year all star.  Myers ($225 k bonus, 6th round) was pitching well at Aberdeen (then a short-season A team) at 18 after being drafted at 17.  I remember that when @Tony-OHdid his post-2013 top 30 list, he was asked where he would have put Hader if he was still in our organization, and he said around 10th.  And I remember Tony being disappointed that we traded Myers.  In both cases, they were guys seen as having a high upside, but far from certain to reach the majors, and in any event being far away time-wise.

Not really related, but reading the post above took me down a few minute rabbit hole of looking up some of our trades and prospects from 2012-2017. I had forgot about Tobias Myers, even though I remember people being upset we traded him so young. He obviously did not workout for Tampa but interestingly - Tampa traded him to Cleveland in 2021 for Junior Caminero who is now rated as the #6 prospect in all of baseball and the #2 SS behind Jackson Holiday. Tampa's ability to target prospects and develop them is pretty remarkable. 

 

Sorry for the tangent. 

[Alasdaire]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the O’s know Showalter has a lot of talent and potential.  They gave him $400 k which is 5th round money, and he’s come along nicely and was having a good year at Delmarva at age 19.   But sometimes you give up a guy like that, who’s 3-4 years away from the majors, to help get a guy you need now.  You don’t know if they’ll turn out to be Josh Hader or Toby Myers, two other highly regarded young pitchers we traded away in deadline deals. Hader ($40 k bonus, 19th round), who was having a nice year at Delmarva at 19, required TJ surgery after being traded but turned into a multi-year all star.  Myers ($225 k bonus, 6th round) was pitching well at Aberdeen (then a short-season A team) at 18 after being drafted at 17.  I remember that when @Tony-OHdid his post-2013 top 30 list, he was asked where he would have put Hader if he was still in our organization, and he said around 10th.  And I remember Tony being disappointed that we traded Myers.  In both cases, they were guys seen as having a high upside, but far from certain to reach the majors, and in any event being far away time-wise.

My prevailing thoughts are the same in the sense that if you've offered St. Louis Prieto + Rom and they're insisting on another high-upside piece, the question is whether you're really willing to torpedo the deal over that ask. And in this case, it wasn't. But it is conceivable to me that there's a reality where you say no based on what you've seen.

Showalter has been in the building for a year now, which is enough time to have a more complete picture of his upside than you can gleam from high school scouting reports. And that information is relatively proprietary given that he hasn't had much time to put professional tape out there for other teams to see. So I'm not saying that the O's have soured on Showalter, but I do think they wouldn't have dealt him if they viewed him as more than a lottery ticket.

This is conjecture, but you could imagine a conscious strategy of bringing in high-profile/overslot guys, vetting them in-house, and then making available the ones who haven't passed your checklist but still have that shine on them from their pre-draft/signing days.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

No he didn’t.  You are correct that you can’t judge a pitcher’s future success from one outing, but Grayson pitched pretty well in his debut. 

My bad.. my point was the former.. he pitched a number of bad games at his start  .. i think it is going to be one of those deals we lose out on but time will tell  

[banks703]

6 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

He could give a real interview, but sometimes you don't bounce back back. bounce back. [/echo].

He has to be carful what he says or he risks falling victim to a scheduling thing for three weeks.  

[waroriole]

10 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

The Orioles have, far and away, the best intel on Showalter. They've scouted him and watched him train/play. If they thought he had the kind of upside you're guessing he has, I highly doubt they would have included him in the trade.

Obviously a kid that young can put things together in ways that can't be foreseen. And it's worth bringing those types of guys into the system because of that. But the fact that he was likely the third addition to a multi-prospect deal for a rental who isn't particularly good should tell you what the Orioles--who know him way better than you, I, or the Cardinals--think about his value.

Cool. Let’s don’t even bother with opinions because the Orioles know best. Just like they knew best with Hader and Davies. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

I read that interview with Flaherty and it has to be one of the more ridiculous things I have ever read haha.

I think he said 'sometimes you just don't bounce back" at least 5 times that I saw. 

I mean.....what is that?  

Trade may work out but I can see why Cardinal fans were not disappointed he was traded. 

He seems....peculiar. 

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I read that interview with Flaherty and it has to be one of the more ridiculous things I have ever read haha.

I think he said 'sometimes you just don't bounce back" at least 5 times that I saw. 

I mean.....what is that?  

Trade may work out but I can see why Cardinal fans were not disappointed he was traded. 

He seems....peculiar. 

Yeah it was very odd. Why even give the interview if these are the answers you’re gonna provide?

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Yeah it was very odd. Why even give the interview if these are the answers you’re gonna provide?

That is a great question. 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Yeah it was very odd. Why even give the interview if these are the answers you’re gonna provide?

It was John's idea.

[Alasdaire]

25 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Cool. Let’s don’t even bother with opinions because the Orioles know best. Just like they knew best with Hader and Davies. 

That's not what I'm saying. My point is that specifically with a player like Showalter--ie a prep pitcher in his first season of professional baseball--the Orioles have much more information than anyone else relative to older players.

If a guy went to college and then has been playing in the minors for a couple of years, there's plenty of tape on him such that anyone can get a pretty good feel for the player even if they don't have the in-house data that his team does. But when you're dealing with a 19 year old who has played in 10 pro games, the public information is seriously lacking. You're going off of a whopping 30 innings of grainy video from rookie ball and low-A. That's a massive disparity compared to the team that has been vetting him for a full year outside of those 30 innings. So none of us, nor even the Cardinals, can really form nearly as good of an opinion on him as the Orioles can.

Certain guys impress immediately. Coaches and players can see it right away and know what they have. If that was Showalter, I don't think the O's would have thrown him in as the third piece to get a mediocre rental. But they did, so they probably don't think Showalter is that kind of guy. I'm the first person to express hesitation at dealing high-upside prospects, and of course he could put it together and be a winning ticket, but making Showalter out to be anything more than wishful thinking is romanticizing him.

[Jammer7]

On 8/23/2023 at 10:55 PM, tntoriole said:

Yeah so did Grayson 

No, he didn’t.

On 8/23/2023 at 10:57 PM, tntoriole said:

Yeah yeah .. you did see Flaherty’s last outing? 

Yes, I did. Flaherty is not completely healthy, and he is still a better option than Rom for a playoff team. And for many reasons. They’ll back off him to get more miles from him down the stretch. Flaherty has not been healthy since COVID 2020. 

I am convinced it was a trade they had to make. They gave up Rom, who is a guy that may end up a back end guy for St. Louis. Rom was never going to get an opportunity in Baltimore. I am happy for him. Prieto too. Showalter is a long long shot. I still think it was a good trade for both teams. 

[Jammer7]

On 8/24/2023 at 9:48 AM, waroriole said:

Cool. Let’s don’t even bother with opinions because the Orioles know best. Just like they knew best with Hader and Davies. 

It was Duquette, who traded those guys. But hey, rage on, brother. 

[Jammer7]

On 8/24/2023 at 6:48 AM, terpoh said:

Not really related, but reading the post above took me down a few minute rabbit hole of looking up some of our trades and prospects from 2012-2017. I had forgot about Tobias Myers, even though I remember people being upset we traded him so young. He obviously did not workout for Tampa but interestingly - Tampa traded him to Cleveland in 2021 for Junior Caminero who is now rated as the #6 prospect in all of baseball and the #2 SS behind Jackson Holiday. Tampa's ability to target prospects and develop them is pretty remarkable. 

 

Sorry for the tangent. 

I had the exact same thought, and you beat me to it. 

[Jammer7]

On 8/24/2023 at 7:16 AM, tntoriole said:

My bad.. my point was the former.. he pitched a number of bad games at his start  .. i think it is going to be one of those deals we lose out on but time will tell  

That is fair. Huge difference in the stuff and make up, but Rom May end up being a solid back end guy. And I hope he does.