Counting down as the ‘23 Orioles match some of the O’s winningest teams

[Gurgi]

10 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

2 things about the list:

1.  The Orioles have only won the league of division once with 95 or fewer wins (1974).  They've also had 3 WCs in a total of 13 such seasons.  With 96+ wins, they've missed the playoffs 3 times in 12 such seasons, including twice with divisional play (1977, 1980).

2.  I don't think Fangraphs' projection systems are doing a good job accounting for either the September Effect (good teams/contenders tend to play much better in September) or using what I would call recent historical experience to project rest-of-season results.  Their system projects the Orioles will play .484 ball the rest of the way, the lowest win pct in the AL East.  That would bring the Orioles in at 99.1 wins.  I'll take the over right now on 99.5 wins in part because I think the Rays are likely to be pushing the Orioles (no worse than 5-6 games out and O's have yet to clinch) for most of the rest of the month if not all of it.  Under those conditions, I expect a good boost from the September Effect as the organization maximizes win decisions the rest of the way.

I think we got another smart guy here.   

[spleen1015]

Too much caring about Fangraphs predictions going on around here.

Great thread. Frobby!

[tntoriole]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tonight the 2023 Orioles entered the top 25 of the modern Orioles’ winningest teams.  It will be fun to see how far up the list they can climb.  As they reach new heights, I’ll give a few details of the team they’ve matched.  Before we start, here’s the whole top 25 (actually 26, as the 2023 O’s are now tied for 24th):

88: 1976, 1996

89: 1960, 1992, 2016

90: 1975, 1978

91: 1968, 1974

93: 2012

94: 1965, 1982

95: 1961

96: 2014

97: 1964, 1966, 1973, 1977

98: 1983, 1997

100: 1980

101: 1971

102: 1979

108: 1970

109: 1969

Tonight the 2023 O’s matched the win totals of the 1976 and 1996 teams.

1976

The 1976 season began with a huge trade, with the O’s acquiring Reggie Jackson and Ken Holtzman in exchange for Don Baylor and Mike Torrez.  Reggie held out for the first month of the year, finally signing for the princely sum of $200,000 in what was the last season before free agency began in earnest.  He got off to a slow start and the team was bogged down as well, sinking as low as 24-31 and playing under .500 as late as 47-48 on July 26.

On June 15, the O’s executed a 10-player trade with the Yankees that brought several players who played key roles for the great Orioles teams of ‘79 and ‘83.  In exchange for Doyle Alexander, Ken Holtzman, Grant Jackson, Elrod Hendricks and Jimmy Freeman, the O’s acquired Scott McGregor, Rick Dempsey, Tippy Martinez, Rudy May and Dave Pagan.  

Around that same time, Reggie began a torrid streak in which he posted a 1.000 OPS over 65 games, hitting 19 homers and knocking in 62 runs in that stretch.  The team still played sluggishly until late July, finally getting going and finishing 40-26 to reach their 88 win total.  They never really made any noise in the playoff race, finishing a distant 2nd in the AL East, 10.5 games behind the Yankees   

Jim Palmer finished 22-13 with a 2.51 ERA that year, winning the Cy Young Award and finishing 6th in the MVP voting.  Wayne Garland came out of nowhere to finish 20-7 with a 2.67 ERA, finishing 8th in the CY voting.  Despite missing almost a month, Reggie finished with 27 homers snd 91 RBI.  Lee May had 25 homers and 109 RBI and finished  9th in the MVP voting.  Palmer, Bobby Grich and Mark Belanger all won Gold Gloves that season.  Belanger also posted a 100 OPS+ that year!

After that season, Reggie, Grich and Garland all were coveted members of the first big free agent class.   Reggie signed with the Yankees for a then-record 5 years, $2.96 mm, Grich signed with the Angels for 5 years, $1.35 mm, and Garland signed with the Indians for 10 years, $2.3 mm.

1996

The ‘96 team had the same record as the ‘76 team, but with the advent of the wild card, made the playoffs despite finishing 4 games behind the Yankees.  The team was 50-51 on July 26, but finished 38-23 to grab the wild card.  The hot streak began about 5 games after the O’s reacquired Eddie Murray, who hit his 500tb homer on Sept. 6 that  year.

1996 was the most hitter-friendly year of the post-WWII era, with the average AL team scoring 5.39 runs/game and a .795 OPS.   For the O’s, Brady Anderson broke Frank Robinson’s team HR record by clubbing 50 homers, and the team hit a then-major league record 257 homers, with 7 players topping 20 homers and 4 topping 100 RBI.  Raffy Palmeiro and Roberto Alomar had spectacular seasons.  Mike Mussina won 19 games.  and finished 5th in the Cy Young voting despite carrying a 4.81 ERA.

In the playoffs, the O’s defeated Cleveland 3 games to 1 in the ALDS, but lost 4 games to 1 in the ALCS in a series that infamously featured young Yankee fan Jeffrey Maier reaching out for a ball that was heading to Tony Tarrasco’s glove, and the umpires ruling it a home run.

* * *

The 2023 O’s have matched those teams’ win total with 23 games to play.

Great post … 

The most anxiety I have ever had as an Os fan was in 1969.   Some argue they were the most dominant baseball team of the modern era .. 109 wins. 
 

That year, for the first time ever, due to expansion that year, divisions were created. 
Thus rather than going directly to the World Series, no , a best 3 of 5 playoff with Minnesota Twins. 
 

The first two games ever in division playoffs were excruciating and both went to extra innings .. in the first game, Mark Belanger actually homered , Tony Oliva then doubled and homered to put Twins ahead 3-2, Boog homered to tie it and in the 12th inning Paul Blair dropped down, on his own,  a two out bunt that scored Belanger from third to win 4-3 

The second game involved Dave McNally pitching an 11 inning complete game shutout (a ML record for a playoff or WS game that will never be broken) and Twins pitcher, Baltimore native, Dave Boswell pitching 10 2/3 inning of shutout baseball  till a Curt Motton pinch hit single finally scored Boog with the winning run 1-0 in the 11th. 
 

The Orioles swept through the third game easily but those first two were the most nerve wracking games ever in my Os fan experience. 
And then there were the Mets. 

Edited September 7, 2023 by tntoriole

[25 Nuggets]

This is going to be a fun thread.  Thanks Frobby

[Frobby]

With tonight’s win, and with 22 games still remaining, the O’s tied the win totals of the 1960, 1992 and 2016 Orioles for 21^st place on the Orioles’ all time team win list.  Here’s how those teams did it.

1960

The 1960 Baby Birds were the first Orioles team to have a winning record, finishing 89-65, 2^nd in the AL, 8 games behind the Yankees.   Coming off a 74-80 season, the O’s were over .500  from game 21 onward, and were leading the AL as late as September 9 (at 81-56) and tied as late as September 14 (at 83-58).  But the Yankees swept the O’s in a 4-game series in New York, and went on from there to win all 9 of their remaining games, to win going away in the end.  Three O’s received all the Rookie of the Year votes, with SS Ron Hansen winning the award with 22 of 24 votes, and P Chuck Estrada and 1B Jim Gentile each receiving a vote.   Brooks Robinson finished 3^rd in the MVP voting behind two guys named Maris and Mantle, and Hansen finished 5^th in his rookie campaign.  The pitching featured 117 starts by pitchers who were 22 or younger – Chuck Estrada, Milt Pappas, Steve Barber, Jerry Walker and Jack Fisher -- and the staff led the AL in ERA at a tidy 3.52.  The season began a run where the previously lame Orioles had a winning record in 24 of 26 seasons.

1992

In Johnny Oates’ first full season as Orioles manager, the 1992 O’s bounced back from two losing seasons, finishing 89-73, 3^rd in the AL East, 7 games back.   The team led the AL East as late as May 24 at 26-16, and was tied for the lead as late as June 19 at 39-26.   From there, the O’s treaded water for about 6 weeks while falling 4.5 games behind, then went on a nice run that got them within a half-game of first place by September 5, but that was the closest they got, as they lost a 3-game set to New York on Sept. 7-9 and never got much traction after that.   Keys to the improvement from 1991 to 1992 were the emergence of 23-year old Mike Mussina in his first full big league season (18-5, 2.54 ERA, 4^th in the Cy Young voting); Brady Anderson’s first big year (130 OPS+, 53 stolen bases) and a career year from Mike Devereaux (117 OPS+, 24 HR, 107 RBI).   That season began a nice run for the Orioles in which they had a winning record 5 years out of 6, culminating in two playoff appearances.

2016

Coming off a campaign where they only had reached .500 by winning their last 6 games, expectations for the 2016 O’s were relatively low.   But the Orioles sent an immediate message that they were not to be trifled with, winning their first 7 games and holding first place in the AL East for the entire month of April.  From there the O’s juggled first place for much of the summer, holding a 5.5 game lead as of June 29 but squandering that by July 20, only to regain the lead a few days later.   Their last day in 1^st place was August 12.  From there they faltered a bit, and when the Red Sox swept a 4-game series at OPACY on Sept. 19-22, they lost all hope of a division title and the wild card looked pretty grim too.  But, the O’s won 7 of their final 9 games to sew up the 2^nd wild card spot on the final day of the season.   There were many memorable performances that year, but by far the most memorable was the amazing performance by Zach Britton, who was a perfect 47/47 in save opportunities, posting an 0.54 ERA and an 0.836 WHIP.  The bullpen as a whole was outstanding that year.  Offensively, Manny Machado had a 130 OPS+, 7.3 rWAR campaign, that earned him 5^th place in the MVP voting.  Mark Trumbo belted 47 homers and knocked in 108, and the O’s as a team hit 253 homers, only a few short of the major league record.  Unfortunately, the team fell to Toronto in extra innings in the wild card game, and 2016 was the last hurrah for the Buck Showalter-led Orioles, as the team headed downhill after that.   Still, it was a thrilling season.

If anyone wants to reminisce about any of those seasons, please feel free to do it here!

Edited September 9, 2023 by Frobby

[Uli2001]

On 9/7/2023 at 2:06 AM, Satyr3206 said:

I think they end up with 102 wins. Just my opinion.

I will stick with my prediction, made a few weeks ago in a poll, that they win 104. They would have to go 15-7 in the remaining games. It's ambitious, but not unlikely. They are already ahead of the pace needed when I made this guess. If this continues to be a close race to the division title, this could happen. If TB fades down the stretch or the O's clinch the division early, then it's natural to "cruise" to the finish line, in which case they would probably win 100.

[Uli2001]

On 9/7/2023 at 5:05 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Fangraphs projections can pick one and suck it.  IIRC they’ve been wrong about us all year. 

All of these "predictors" have been lagging all year. "ESPN Analytics" still has the Orioles as the underdogs most nights, even playing some mediocre teams, such as San Diego. They still think this is the "old" Orioles.

It's not just the computers. Not a single "expert" in a panel of 17 at ESPN.com this week picked the Orioles to come out of the AL to play in the World Series. The team that is leading the AL by 4 games.

[Babkins]

1992 was my freshman year of high school, and I remember hanging out in the hallway outside my first-period class on a rainy late-September morning as a couple of my classmates passed around the Sports section of the Washington Post. There was some chatter about the Orioles’ chances for a final push until the someone remarked that they were seven games out with six games left.

That was a fun season, though. I made my first trip to Camden Yards on April 18 to watch Mussina throw eight innings of one-run ball in a win against the Tigers, and we had an HTS subscription, so I watched pretty much every game that whole summer. I started to shift my batting stance from Tony Gwynn to Brady Anderson a little bit.

[btownoriole]

1992 was also the first year at Camden Yards.  I was away in college and didn’t get to my first game until May.  I loved Memorial Stadium but I just remember being blown away by Camden Yards.  The combination of a good team and revolutionary new ballpark made every night feel like a celebration.  Ironically, despite a hot start at Camden Yards (10-1), the team played better on the road (46-35) than at home (43-38).

Edited September 9, 2023 by btownoriole

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, btownoriole said:

1992 was also the first year at Camden Yards.  

Can’t believe I forgot to mention that. Probably the most salient thing about that entire season. 

[Jim'sKid26]

@Frobby I'm glad you have dealt with 2016 in your usual thorough, yet thoughtful way; that year will go down in infamy for reasons you did not state. It is remarkably kind of you not to mention a certain moment in Toronto that most of us have burned into our psyche. As I type this I am re-living the shock and disappointment. It is something we all carry with us. Seven years of therapy has only begun to numb the pain.

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, Babkins said:

1992 was my freshman year of high school, and I remember hanging out in the hallway outside my first-period class on a rainy late-September morning as a couple of my classmates passed around the Sports section of the Washington Post. There was some chatter about the Orioles’ chances for a final push until the someone remarked that they were seven games out with six games left.

That was a fun season, though. I made my first trip to Camden Yards on April 18 to watch Mussina throw eight innings of one-run ball in a win against the Tigers, and we had an HTS subscription, so I watched pretty much every game that whole summer. I started to shift my batting stance from Tony Gwynn to Brady Anderson a little bit.

Neat! That April 18 game was my first Major League Baseball game. I wasn’t even much of a baseball fan until that game. The ticket was a birthday gift and going to the game sounded like fun. Little did I know it would make the Orioles a part of my daily life for 30+ years. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Frobby I'm glad you have dealt with 2016 in your usual thorough, yet thoughtful way; that year will go down in infamy for reasons you did not state. It is remarkably kind of you not to mention a certain moment in Toronto that most of us have burned into our psyche. As I type this I am re-living the shock and disappointment. It is something we all carry with us. Seven years of therapy has only begun to numb the pain.

Thing is, it was an 89 win team that  barely scraped into the wild card.  Good team, far from a great one.  I enjoyed the 162-game ride.  I’m not going to obsesses over losing the wild card game.  The way our offense was playing that night, that was no better than a 50/50 game, and probably less, regardless of any managerial decisions.  So, I didn’t want to dwell on that here.  

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Thing is, it was an 89 win team that  barely scraped into the wild card.  Good team, far from a great one.  I enjoyed the 162-game ride.  I’m not going to obsesses over losing the wild card game.  The way our offense was playing that night, that was no better than a 50/50 game, and probably less, regardless of any managerial decisions.  So, I didn’t want to dwell on that here.  

You, my friend, are a much stronger man than me. And a much more analytically one as well. I like to wear my emotions on my sleeve. Right next to the Oriole bird....

[Babkins]

17 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Neat! That April 18 game was my first Major League Baseball game. I wasn’t even much of a baseball fan until that game. The ticket was a birthday gift and going to the game sounded like fun. Little did I know it would make the Orioles a part of my daily life for 30+ years. 

That’s awesome. It was three days before my fourteenth birthday, too, but going was not explicitly a birthday gift—just our family’s first opportunity to see the new park, and my dad had a strong interest in seeing “this Mussina kid” pitch. He didn’t disappoint.

I remember watching the highlights on Sports Center or Baseball Tonight later that evening, and the anchor (I think it was Dan Patrick, but it could have been Berman or Olbermann) said, of Mussina’s line, something to the effect that he “scattered seven hits in eight innings of work,” and then added, as an aside, “Ever notice how you only ‘scatter’ hits when you win?” Funny little remark that has continued to occupy space in my head for 31 years.