Astros Series

[DenPA2002]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

Look at it this way, we started the week with a 2 game lead so we could afford to drop 2 games because we have the tiebreak.

There were 4 sets of concurrent series left, and here is what you would likely expect of them.

Balt@Hou for 3 while TB hosts LA for 3:   
    Reasonable expectation:  we lose a game

Balt @ Cle for 4 while TB hosts Toronto for 3
    Reasonable expectation:  we gain or lose half a game

Balt vs Wash for 2 while TB is at Boston for 2:
    Reasonable expectation:  we break even or gain a game

Balt vs Bos for 4 while TB is at Toronto for 3:
    Reasonable expectation:  we gain half a game or lose half a game

So if you add up all the reasonable explanation possibilities, you wind up at best case we gain a game and finish 3 up, and at worst case we lose 2 games and end up even with them and win the division on the tiebreak.

So we started at an advantage, where we would have to underperform (or TB overperform) reasonable expections for us not to win the division.   And so far, that has not happened.   Even if TB wins the next two nights, which is no guarantee, we have pretty much met our expectation for the first series for each team.

In tennis terms, we have "held serve" so far.   The pressure is on Tampa at this point.

If it makes you feel any better, after TB won the first 2 games in the series with us, the odds of them winning the division was even money. Now they are 13-1 to win the division. Vegas feels pretty strong on who's winning the division (it isn't TB). 

[Il BuonO]

On 9/20/2023 at 7:24 PM, Frobby said:

And I was an advocate for him being available on Tuesday night despite pitching on Sunday/Monday, due to his relatively low in-game pitch count. But there’s only so far you want to push that. 

Based on what exactly? You’re one of the more informed voices here, but this, in fact, sounds specious.

I mean, Dr Andrews first came up with the idea of pitch counts for kids. For a 17 year old it’s 105 pitches. I’ve seen kids continually overused so some coach can receive praise. So, pitch counts for kids whose bodies are still developing makes sense, but you know what makes more sense? Proper mechanics. If pitch counts work (I’m including relievers because the idea they’re overused is relative to pitches thrown) why is there a continual amount of pitching injuries? I’d argue that mechanics far and away are responsible for the number of pitching injuries we still see. 

If you don’t want to push the envelope of how many days in a row a reliever is used or how many pitches a starter can throw in any particular game, where’s the bar set? To me it’s an arbitrary number that has been ingrained in most, if not all, managers (probably with guidelines from their respective front offices). And there is little evidence to support it’s working.

[Satyr3206]

I will buy a chicken tomorrow, again.

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Based on what exactly? You’re one of the more informed voices here, but this, in fact, sounds specious.

Look, I am not a doctor, not am I privy to whatever data major league teams have on this subject.   But honestly, when is the last time you saw any major league team use a reliever four days in a row?  Anyway, even after a day off, Perez looked pretty ragged on Thursday.  

By the way, I’m definitely not suggesting that no pitcher has ever pitched four days in a row.  In fact, Mike Marshall pitched 8 days in a row back in 1974, and had two other streaks of 6 and a few 4’s that year.  
 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Look, I am not a doctor, not am I privy to whatever data major league teams have on this subject.   But honestly, when is the last time you saw any major league team use a reliever four days in a row?  Anyway, even after a day off, Perez looked pretty ragged on Thursday.  

By the way, I’m definitely not suggesting that no pitcher has ever pitched four days in a row.  In fact, Mike Marshall pitched 8 days in a row back in 1974, and had two other streaks of 6 and a few 4’s that year.  
 

Interesting you cite Mike Marshall who earned a PhD in kinesiology and the study of body mechanics while playing .. Excellent SABR article about him (he passed in 2021 sadly)

“One who understood Marshall’s methods was Dr. Frank Jobe, the pioneer of Tommy John surgery. “Kinesiology, I’m convinced, is the secret of pitching,” Jobe said. “Marshall calls it kinesiology, which is the scientific term. I call it body mechanics. In pitching, it’s balance, rhythm and alignment. If a pitcher has those three things, the stresses on the arm are at a minimum.

“The arm wasn’t meant to throw a ball that hard in the first place. But since these guys do, body mechanics are crucial and Marshall has worked them out for himself—and obviously, to perfection.”

Of course, Nolan Ryan had perhaps the best pitching body mechanics ever.  He holds modern record of 235 pitches thrown in a 13 inning game in 1974.  Three days later on normal rest he threw six scoreless and CG 

But what I see nowadays is more emphasis on changing arm slots, spin rates, release points to improve performance with little regard for balance and you can often see it in the places where pitchers land.. hair flying, off balance.  With the idea being.. well if they need TJ surgery ok, but performance has to come first.