Astros Series

[Frobby]

It should be pointed out, we might well have lost that game even if we’d pitched a scoreless 8th.  A run in the 9th still would have tied it, and if the inning had unfolded as it did, there’s still two on (and possibly a runner on 3rd) and one out.   That may not have gone well.  But, if a butterfly flaps it wings, who knows what would have happened?   

[O's84]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Out best bet is going to be the Blue Jays battling with the Rays. I’m hoping there’s a few players on the Angels with something to prove and can scratch out a win to at least avoid the sweep. 

Yeah, they still have to play the Jays 6 times.

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Out best bet is going to be the Blue Jays battling with the Rays. I’m hoping there’s a few players on the Angels with something to prove and can scratch out a win to at least avoid the sweep. 

I hope the Blue Jays get hot for the series.  Hard to believe that the O's have outscored the Jays by quite a lot.  Who could have predicted that at the beginning of the year.

[RZNJ]

The bullpen is looking pretty weak right now.  Fuji and Jorge have talent but can’t be trusted in big spots.   Cano is particularly shaky vs. LH hitters and should be matched like last night.  Coulombe, Perez, and Hall look decent.   Webb has been shaky after a great start to his Orioles tenure.   Felix was dominant.   It used to be “get the game to Felix”.   Now, there’s no safety net at any point.

[Mooreisbetter27]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It should be pointed out, we might well have lost that game even if we’d pitched a scoreless 8th.  A run in the 9th still would have tied it, and if the inning had unfolded as it did, there’s still two on (and possibly a runner on 3rd) and one out.   That may not have gone well.  But, if a butterfly flaps it wings, who knows what would have happened?   

Yeah but it we didn’t walk the first 2 guys and then loaded the bases, completely different batters would’ve been up for the 9th and we will never know how that would have gone. 

[bpilktree]

I think the underestimated the Wells issue and thought he just needed a break then would be fine as a bullpen arm to add down the stretch.   I think they thought it was just a little dead arm and he would go down for a month or so then come back and pitch as late inning reliever.  

[SteveA]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Out best bet is going to be the Blue Jays battling with the Rays. I’m hoping there’s a few players on the Angels with something to prove and can scratch out a win to at least avoid the sweep. 

Look at it this way, we started the week with a 2 game lead so we could afford to drop 2 games because we have the tiebreak.

There were 4 sets of concurrent series left, and here is what you would likely expect of them.

Balt@Hou for 3 while TB hosts LA for 3:   
    Reasonable expectation:  we lose a game

Balt @ Cle for 4 while TB hosts Toronto for 3
    Reasonable expectation:  we gain or lose half a game

Balt vs Wash for 2 while TB is at Boston for 2:
    Reasonable expectation:  we break even or gain a game

Balt vs Bos for 4 while TB is at Toronto for 3:
    Reasonable expectation:  we gain half a game or lose half a game

So if you add up all the reasonable explanation possibilities, you wind up at best case we gain a game and finish 3 up, and at worst case we lose 2 games and end up even with them and win the division on the tiebreak.

So we started at an advantage, where we would have to underperform (or TB overperform) reasonable expections for us not to win the division.   And so far, that has not happened.   Even if TB wins the next two nights, which is no guarantee, we have pretty much met our expectation for the first series for each team.

In tennis terms, we have "held serve" so far.   The pressure is on Tampa at this point.

[Mendoza Line]

33 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Cano, Perez, and Coulombe are very good relief pitchers.

Webb, Baumann, and Hall are pretty good.

You're right, maybe our bullpen, without Bautista, isn't quite as good as some of the teams we are competing against.   And we might lose because of it.  Or we might lose because our starters are not as good as the opposing starters.   Or our hitters aren't as good as the opposing hitters.   It's certainly possible, even though this colleciton of hitters, starters, and relievers has put together the 2nd best record in MLB this year.

And I agree we should have done more to improve the pen at the trade deadline.

But I think our pen will be a lot better in the postseason because if he is even on the roster at all, Fuji won't be pitching in the 8th inning of a close game.

I believe this year we have probably won a lot more games by beating up on the opponents' bullpen than we have lost by our bullpen blowing it.   

But I got news for you, bullpen was only half the reason we lost today.   The other half was offense.   Somehow people feel like if the offense fails it's no big deal, they will go out and get them tomorrow, but if the bullpen fails it is proof that they will continue to fail

Hyde made a choice last game to use two guys for a 3rd consecutive day, something he hasn't done all year.   That choice won us last night's game and cost us today's.   If he had tried to get through the 9th without Cano and Perez last night, maybe we lose that game, but we probably win today.

Did he really need to make that choice with Cano? Yes it worked brilliantly, but we had a 4 run lead in the 9th. We can't burn our best relievers every game we don't have a 5+ run lead.

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

1 hour ago, Satyr3206 said:

I know. My big mistake.

Actually you can still have a broom... to sweep away winning the entire series :'P

[Satyr3206]

I deserve whatever. Jumped the gun and jinxed the team. Have at it.

[OnlyOneOriole]

It may be just me but the O's seem to have a habit of losing the getaway game when they have won the first 2.

 

Today was almost predictable.  In fact it was as I had $2000 on the Astros money line. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

It may be just me but the O's seem to have a habit of losing the getaway game when they have won the first 2.

It’s just you.  The Orioles have won the first two games of a three-game series 14 times this year.  They’ve swept 8, lost the final game 6 times.  But, we’ve lost 4 of the last 5 of those. 

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Mendoza Line said:

Did he really need to make that choice with Cano? Yes it worked brilliantly, but we had a 4 run lead in the 9th. We can't burn our best relievers every game we don't have a 5+ run lead.

I agree.   I said as much in the game thread.   I would have gone one more batter with Flaherty.

[Il BuonO]

So, going back to Sunday Perez threw a third of an inning (5 pitches), two thirds on Monday (8 pitches), and third again yesterday (10 pitches). Does anyone besides Hyde think that he was overworked? He’s been one of the best out of the pen in the second half. 

That along with Hyde bringing in Cano last night and Fujinami today is a head scratcher. 

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

So, going back to Sunday Perez threw a third of an inning (5 pitches), two thirds on Monday (8 pitches), and third again yesterday (10 pitches). Does anyone besides Hyde think that he was overworked? He’s been one of the best out of the pen in the second half. 

That along with Hyde bringing in Cano last night and Fujinami today is a head scratcher. 

I do think that warming up in the bullpen and on the mound before an outing adds to the impact of the actual pitches thrown in the game.  If you’re suggesting Perez should have pitched again today, I’d disagree. And I was an advocate for him being available on Tuesday night despite pitching on Sunday/Monday, due to his relatively low in-game pitch count. But there’s only so far you want to push that.