Mike Elias Press Conference(Long but Interesting)

[Roll Tide]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

One could say that he had a chance at the deadline.

One could say he failed …. His deadline move was trash. You couldn’t have pitched any worse than Flaherty.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

One could say he failed …. His deadline move was trash. You couldn’t have pitched any worse than Flaherty.

I'm as annoyed by the amount of rope they gave Flaherty.

Contrast it with how quickly they sent Irvin down in the spring.

Makes me wonder how they will respond in the future when an acquisition doesn't work out.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm as annoyed by the amount of rope they gave Flaherty.

Contrast it with how quickly they sent Irvin down in the spring.

Makes me wonder how they will respond in the future when an acquisition doesn't work out.

Everything about Flaherty’s season before the trade told you he was very likely to struggle. I’m not surprised about how it turned out. The same could be said for Fuji. He had some shiny moments but I don’t think anyone was surprised at his lapses.

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Technically the earth is an irregularly shaped ellipsoid.

 

[nvpacchi]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just following up on Holliday, per MLB Pipeline:

“In the American League, Twins second baseman Brooks Lee is the favorite, followed by [Texas’ Evan] Carter and Tigers third baseman Colt Keith.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-contenders-for-2024-rookies-of-the-year#:

in Callis's next paragraph he mentions both Cowser and Kjerstad as possibilities but worries about sufficient PAs - a valid concern. add Ortiz into the mix and the Os are spreading their options out with hopefully one catching lightning in a bottle to become a true frontrunner. 

older article but Craig Edwards did good work trying to assign dollar values to draft picks, with pick 31 coming in at $9.8M - 3 years of inflation maybe that's $11 to $12m

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

 

wonder how the Os value that extra pick? my hunch is more than Edwards estimate,  just feels like teams have far more data now limiting the bust rate of 1st and supplemental picks.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

I saw an interesting quote from Elias where he mentioned that they tried trading for guys with significant Contracts.  Would love to know what deals he was working at the deadline that fell through.  I think he was all in on Verlander until the Astros swooped in. 

I refuse the plan is to spend more money until said money is actually spent.  JA hasn't even said he is trying to get some of the O's stars signed to long term contracts.  How easy is that to just say.  The O's could always offer them a sub market deal and then be surprised when they decline to sign.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I call bs on JA.  Yes, the O's can't sign every good young player to a long term contract, but nothing is stopping JA/O's from signing 2 or 3 of the O's best players long term. 

[VICIOUS]

4 hours ago, Aglets said:

Yeah i think this quote is noteworthy compared to all of the GM speak we usually get from him in interviews.

At this point I do think the odds are in favor of him being on the Opening Day roster.   I think Mike wants the extra draft pick (again!).

How many years in a row do you guys think we can have a guy finish in the top 2 of the RoY voting?  heh

9

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I call bs on JA.  Yes, the O's can't sign every good young player to a long term contract, but nothing is stopping JA/O's from signing 2 or 3 of the O's best players long term. 

100% agreed. 

[eddie83]

https://www.wmar2news.com/sports/baseball/orioles/wrapping-up-the-2023-orioles-season-observations-from-a-final-news-conference

 

Dan Connolly thoughts. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

23 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I call bs on JA.  Yes, the O's can't sign every good young player to a long term contract, but nothing is stopping JA/O's from signing 2 or 3 of the O's best players long term. 

It’s absolutely BS, and it’s really just Gunnar that is critical at the moment.  Every other franchise would have been going all out to lock him up yesterday. Maybe the Orioles are, but after Machado I don’t trust them in the slightest. Lock Gunnar into whatever contract he’s willing to sign and he’ll be the only guaranteed financial commitment on the Orioles’ ledger over the lifetime of that deal. 

With Adley’s age and remaining 4 years of control, it would be well worth it to buy out a couple free agent years but there’s decent counter arguments to be made against committing to him past that. I’d like to see him in an Orioles uniform the rest of his career but there isn’t the same upside as locking up Gunnar.

Holliday is the next big test after Gunnar. It’s probably premature now, but once he gets a bit of MLB success under his belt he should be in line for a huge deal.

I don’t have the slightest hope that the Orioles do the right thing by extending any of these players under current ownership.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Realistically I think this is the best we can hope for - one free agent SP in the 3-4 yr, $40-60M range. They’ve gone into that range before with Ubaldo and Cobb (and those worked out great…). 

My favorite targets are Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery but they’ll be well beyond that range, along of course with Ohtani, Snell and Yamamoto. 

That may only leave Sonny Gray (34) at that price point, who was fantastic this year but may only get ~3/60 or ~4/80 given his age.

There’s also Lucas Giolito (29) and Jack Flaherty (28), who both ended their seasons very poorly, so hard to gauge but they have age and some quality prior past performance on their sides. Hard to get excited about either of them.

[eddie83]

Perhaps with a new Front Office in Chicago someone like Cease will be available. 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Perhaps with a new Front Office in Chicago someone like Cease will be available. 

He stinks

[AnythingO's]

49 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I call bs on JA.  Yes, the O's can't sign every good young player to a long term contract, but nothing is stopping JA/O's from signing 2 or 3 of the O's best players long term. 

OK, at the risk of being accused of defending JA, I am just using the Forbes data at hand, not some fan's estimate of what JA "could" afford. For the record I despise the man. We know (Forbes) that each time Payroll passed $140 M they lost money (2016-2018). Each of those years the delta between Salaries and Payroll was about $14-18 M for benefits, etc. However in 2 years since (2019, 2022) the delta was $38-41 M. In 2021 it was $20 M so my conclusion is the cost of doing business under Elias has risen. Why do I point that out, because Salaries in 2023 increased by about how much Revenue increased from 2021 to 2022. There should be another $12 M increase in Revenue due to attendance in 2023. Anything above 2022 Salaries plus $12 M in increased Revenue has to come out of JA's pocket. Elias is sharp and crafty but he can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. IMO Georgia won't sell until PA dies and they get the step-up in basis to avoid Capital Gains. Until them JA will continue to maximize Operating Income.