Mike Elias Press Conference(Long but Interesting)

[Ripken]

19 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

OK, at the risk of being accused of defending JA, I am just using the Forbes data at hand, not some fan's estimate of what JA "could" afford. For the record I despise the man. We know (Forbes) that each time Payroll passed $140 M they lost money (2016-2018). Each of those years the delta between Salaries and Payroll was about $14-18 M for benefits, etc. However in 2 years since (2019, 2022) the delta was $38-41 M. In 2021 it was $20 M so my conclusion is the cost of doing business under Elias has risen. Why do I point that out, because Salaries in 2023 increased by about how much Revenue increased from 2021 to 2022. There should be another $12 M increase in Revenue due to attendance in 2023. Anything above 2022 Salaries plus $12 M in increased Revenue has to come out of JA's pocket. Elias is sharp and crafty but he can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. IMO Georgia won't sell until PA dies and they get the step-up in basis to avoid Capital Gains. Until them JA will continue to maximize Operating Income.

JA can afford a competitive roster but I just don't see him doing it or this team going where we all want it to with that POS owning the team.  Even the "at least he hired Elias" part doesn't do much for me.  Elias was a local guy, from a successful org, looking for a GM position and JA knew Elias would tear it all down and work very cheap.  Obvious choice, especially when you want to hoard profits. 

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

But, he’s built an organization through drafts, development, selling parts for prospects, grabbing guys off the scrap pile, a bargain bin free agents signings. 
 

What he hasn’t done is a trade for a star or signed a top free agent to a big contract. I’d say he’s done nothing yet to prove he’s competent at this part of the job. 
 

Im not saying he won’t be successful just that he hasn’t. But, his chance is coming. We have extra prospect chips, players nearing free agency, and should have some payroll to spend.

Regarding the bolded, who gives a crap?

He won 101 games and the American League East.

He doesn't need to sign a ToP fReE aGeNt to get the benefit of the doubt.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

One could say that he had a chance at the deadline.

To win the American League East and have the best record in the American League?

How did that work out for him?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

To win the American League East and have the best record in the American League?

How did that work out for him?

To improve the team for the playoffs.

How did that work out?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Realistically I think this is the best we can hope for - one free agent SP in the 3-4 yr, $40-60M range. They’ve gone into that range before with Ubaldo and Cobb (and those worked out great…). 

My favorite targets are Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery but they’ll be well beyond that range, along of course with Ohtani, Snell and Yamamoto. 

That may only leave Sonny Gray (34) at that price point, who was fantastic this year but may only get ~3/60 or ~4/80 given his age.

There’s also Lucas Giolito (29) and Jack Flaherty (28), who both ended their seasons very poorly, so hard to gauge but they have age and some quality prior past performance on their sides. Hard to get excited about either of them.

Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty will be more of the same of what we have done the last 2 off seasons, guys who aren’t good enough to make a difference in October (same as Gibson this year, Lyles last). We don’t need filler type players, we need guys who are good enough to make a difference.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I refuse the plan is to spend more money until said money is actually spent.  JA hasn't even said he is trying to get some of the O's stars signed to long term contracts.  How easy is that to just say.  The O's could always offer them a sub market deal and then be surprised when they decline to sign.

Why make low ball offers to potentially piss off players? Why not just do the right/organizational competent thing and actually get the deal(s) done? It’s not like every other organization hasn’t figured it out. It’s not that hard really.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

There should be another $12 M increase in Revenue due to attendance in 2023. Anything above 2022 Salaries plus $12 M in increased Revenue has to come out of JA's pocket.

First of all, I expect revenue has increased by WAY more than $12 mm.  Attendance increased by 550,000.  Average price of a ticket at OPACY was $34.27.  That’s $18.8 mm.  All those people are buying concessions and merchandise at the stadium that the O’s get a big cut of.  Beyond just the extra people in the stadium, people are buying more stuff because of all the AL East Champion paraphernalia and the City Connect jerseys and hats.   And, they got a slice of the gate for three playoff games wgsre ticket prices were more than double the usual amount.  I don’t know what all that adds up to, but I’m guessing revenues will be up $30 mm at least.  

Second, the O’s have been making enormous profits in 4 of the last 5 years .  They could make half the amount of profit they’ve been making and still be one of the most profitable teams in the league.  Ro 

So, there is PLENTY of room to raise the payroll.   And I’m not expecting them to raise it as much as they possibly could between this year and next.  But they can afford a couple of very good free agents, or veterans acquired in “buy” trades, without breaking a sweat.  

To be clear, I don’t believe a team should spend money just to spend it.  I’m perfectly happy with how this team has been rebuilt and how much money has.been spent doing it.  But if Elias decides now is the time to significantly increase payroll to take the team to the next level, there is plenty of money there to do it.  


 

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I call bs on JA. . . .

Get in line.

[Just Regular]

Cot's already has its Arb estimates penciled into 2024 projections.

They have it at $67mm already, so Gibson-Frazier type acquisitions would take them to mid-80's.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x5bu-k__81Rfjcl98QDlTmqkKyIPCylQ4ieEsr73nAk/edit#gid=1520401900

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Perhaps with a new Front Office in Chicago someone like Cease will be available. 

I would be interested in Cease or Mitch Keller of the Pirates.  Neither had great results but they both have elite stuff and Cease was a Cy Young contender a year ago.  The O's need another #2 type pitcher, imo, and they are not going to pay free agent prices for a pitcher.  The O's have so many ready position prospects there will be no where for some of them to play in 2024.  I'm sure there are other starting pitchers who would be available at a certain price in trade value.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

But, he’s built an organization through drafts, development, selling parts for prospects, grabbing guys off the scrap pile, a bargain bin free agents signings. 
 

What he hasn’t done is a trade for a star or signed a top free agent to a big contract. I’d say he’s done nothing yet to prove he’s competent at this part of the job. 
 

Im not saying he won’t be successful just that he hasn’t. But, his chance is coming. We have extra prospect chips, players nearing free agency, and should have some payroll to spend.

JA would have to make the funds available to sign a free agent to a big contract or sign one of the O's stars to a big extension.  I have a hard time counting that against Elias.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Pickles said:

Regarding the bolded, who gives a crap?

He won 101 games and the American League East.

He doesn't need to sign a ToP fReE aGeNt to get the benefit of the doubt.

I’m saying he hasn’t done those things yet. I want to see if he can win a trade when he starts dealing our surplus prospects. I want to see him actually acquire someone that doesn’t require an uptick in performance when he gets here to win the deal. Who has he acquired in a trade that’s any good? We no longer are the beneficiaries of the tank-a-thon, so he will need to be better at other aspects of being a GM. 
 

If you don’t give a crap then perhaps you should! 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

JA would have to make the funds available to sign a free agent to a big contract or sign one of the O's stars to a big extension.  I have a hard time counting that against Elias.

Obviously….But, he certainly could trade for a TOR that is either under a palatable contract or controlled for 2-3 seasons. I’m just saying that he built a winner with high draft picks and getting the right guys off the scrap heap. He will need to do it other ways to keep the team winning and the organization strong. 

[Gurgi]

15 hours ago, Bird Lady said:

He also said Jackson Holliday will be given the opportunity to make the team in the Spring. I realize this may be GM speak, so take it for what it's worth 

I think it is real.  I think they see how he looks and plays in Spring Training and they will decide.  I think the extra draft pick is a great boon.  So much so that guys are going to make the team opening day a lot more than in the past.  Because Elias has the group that can use that pick and get a stud more times than not.  

[Jagwar]

9 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

He stinks

I think the O's can "fix" him. I'm pretty sure they would think so too.