Why Kyle Gibson might be resigned

[Just Regular]

Elias' taste for a guy like this this winter is kind of a clue what he thinks of McDermott and Povich.

They are already old.     It is just a byproduct of pitching development these days no rookie SP can go 26 weeks, so a Club is always getting 6.x years, if they even end up tendering them that long.    

Kremer 162, Bradish 162, Grayson 162, Means 162

Irvin 90, Hall 90, Wells 90

That would be about 900 innings from seven length pitchers.

This year including Gibson the top 6 guys did about 850 innings.     Figure one of Hall/Wells as the 7th guy ends up more of a full-time reliever.

Does Justin Armbreuster get Bruce Zimmermann's kind of gig?

While I don't trust Wells to throw a year, I do trust Wells to credibly cover a rotation job for a month or three if one of the main four is unavailable.

Every July we're going to be in the market for pitching until the talent basket is more balanced, so Aug/Sep I think its fair to project somebody from one of the Verlander-Montgomery-Flaherty realms joining the roster for a value bid.    The offseason is prologue to July 31 while this many farm assets are hoarded.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t understand the second point.  We aren’t saying Bradish and Rodriguez should be in our rotation?

I’m responding to his post about a MiLer being ready in the second half.

[Frobby]

I think people are so used to the Orioles having mediocre to bad starting pitching, they tend to underappreciate what our rotation did this year.   They were 11th of 30 teams in ERA, 6th in innings pitched, 8th in quality starts.  In the second half, the O’s starters were 5th in the majors in ERA and 2nd in IP.  That is not too shabby!   Yes, I’d like the rotation to be even better in 2024, but people shouldn’t have the impression that our starters weren’t good this year.  They were pretty darned good.  

Also, there were only 45 pitchers who threw enough innings to quality (1.5 per team on average), and we had 3: Gibson (12th in the majors), Kremer (36th) and Bradish (39th).   
 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Frobby

[CaptainRedbeard]

The issue with Wells as a SP is not just his durability, but also his stuff has deteriorated a lot as a SP over the past couple years. He’s a fly ball pitcher and has become very HR prone with a 90-92 MPH fastball. 

Wells has enough talent to be an effective SP with diminished velocity, but the Wells with a 95 MPH fastball in 2021 and that was coming out of the pen in the playoffs this year is on a different level. 

SP are more valuable than RP but Wells may be a ~1.0 WAR closer/setup man or a ~2.0 WAR SP if able to pitch a full season (but who hasn’t been able to do so to date).

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m responding to his post about a MiLer being ready in the second half.

Ah, that makes sense.  I hope McDermott will pitch well enough to show he’s ready by then, but I wouldn’t make my plans based on that.  

[wildcard]

I want Plan A to be the O's add a Starting Pitcher that is at least a 3 or 4.   Someone better than Kremer.   And the way Kremer pitched the last 5 months of the season that is a  high bar.

Bradish is a #1 starter.  He will be 27 year old until Sepin 2024. Anyone who does not believe in Bradish after he goes 12-7, 2.58 ERA,  30 S,  168 IP is just being pessimistic.  Write him down for 33 starts in pen.

GRod's 2nd half showed he has arrived.  5-2, 2.58 ERA.    Between AAA and the Majors he made 31 start and pitch 163 IP.  He turns 24 in November.  There is every reason to believe  he will be a #1 next season.  Yes, that's right  2  #1s.  I will bet anyone that he  raises the occasion in next years playoffs.

Means had a 2.66 ERA in 4 Sept starts.   While I don't expect that his career ERA is 3.74 on some pretty bad teams.   He will have better support than that next season.   He is a solid #3 that probably pitches 150 IP.  He is a bulldog.   Playoff pitcher.

Kremer 13-5 in 32 S, 172 IP.  His 4.12 ERA may be better next year.  Not because he improves but becasue he pitches like he did in 2023 over the last 5 months when he had a 3.59 ERA. There is a good chance he is a good 4/5 on a World Series team.

But I would like to add another starter better that Kremer.

Wells  was 7-6, 3.98 ERA 20 S,  108 IP   plus 10 scoreless IP in relief.   He can do either but only for about 100 IP.   Put him were you need him.   Plan A he is a reliever.  Plan B he is a starter.

 

 

[Too Tall]

Gibson may get a Lyle's deal and he may not. If he does, good for him! I want to see us go for a higher level SP also, but I would not be against another one year of Gibson as insurance. We have the money to do both and there is no such thing as too much pitching. Thinking Hall has enough innings in his arm to start all year would be a stretch and thinking Well's body of work could/would be different in year three would be as well. 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it’s terrible.

First of all, Wells has his own issues even outside of the durability stuff, so you don’t even know if the 100 innings would be worth it.

Secondly, they don’t have 1 starter where you enter the season saying, this guy should be in the rotation this year. You can’t even remotely rely on that.

The mindset has got to change on how to build a team now. 

I think, like everything else, it depends on the other moves.  If the rotation is Burnes, Bradish, GRod, Means, Wells I'd be thrilled.  

 

[Just Regular]

47 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

SP are more valuable than RP but Wells may be a ~1.0 WAR closer/setup man or a ~2.0 WAR SP if able to pitch a full season (but who hasn’t been able to do so to date).

Are they still?       

I somewhat accept Dombrowski as an arbiter of taste at championship-caliber roster construction.   Once again this year Ranger Suarez is faking the 3rd starter thing, and otherwise its all Aces and Relief Aces.   2022 the overall lack of talent depth took Bryce down to the 6th best record (but gained tournament admittance!), and off they went.     Saturday Game 4 we'll see if Taijuan-Lorenzen tandem like Grayson-Flaherty or Kremer-Gibson.

Once again the Michael Lorenzen/Kyle Gibson character has thrown about 1 inning in a blowout all month.

PHI roster today, I think all the way down to the 7th reliever Orion Kerkering, each and every RP is more of an October asset than the Taijuan Walker, Michael Lorenzen, Kyle Gibson guy.

Maybe as much as Mayo-Basallo giving evidence the Gunnar thing may have been signal not noise, the Bradish breakout is a huge deal for the rest of the Adley Teams, and short-term positions Elias well to browse the pitching market this offseason.

Its still possible '23 Bradish was a '21 Mullins kind of thing.

I hope Elias has a sharp eye for the stronger pitchers good enough to matter in October (and naturally we are more likely to trade for Cease/Burnes, etc than give somebody $100mm), and the other side of that coin is I hope we've outgrown the innings munchers needed to complete seasons.

Robert Stephenson's free agency off a half season of One of the World's Greatest Relievers performance is going to be an interesting one to watch.

I hope pitchers like Tyler Wells will see the money Rafael Montero got, and that Stephenson's about to get, and won't feel like their earning potential is being much inhibited by being asked to run at a 70 IP role even when it isn't what they have visualized for themselves all their baseball lives.     The relieverization of all pitching is one of the basic things the Friedman/McKinsey people have done to the game

 

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Elias' taste for a guy like this this winter is kind of a clue what he thinks of McDermott and Povich.

They are already old.     It is just a byproduct of pitching development these days no rookie SP can go 26 weeks, so a Club is always getting 6.x years, if they even end up tendering them that long.    

Kremer 162, Bradish 162, Grayson 162, Means 162

Irvin 90, Hall 90, Wells 90

That would be about 900 innings from seven length pitchers.

This year including Gibson the top 6 guys did about 850 innings.     Figure one of Hall/Wells as the 7th guy ends up more of a full-time reliever.

Does Justin Armbreuster get Bruce Zimmermann's kind of gig?

While I don't trust Wells to throw a year, I do trust Wells to credibly cover a rotation job for a month or three if one of the main four is unavailable.

Every July we're going to be in the market for pitching until the talent basket is more balanced, so Aug/Sep I think its fair to project somebody from one of the Verlander-Montgomery-Flaherty realms joining the roster for a value bid.    The offseason is prologue to July 31 while this many farm assets are hoarded.

Placing Wells and Hall in the rotation leaves the back end of the bullpen VERY LIGHT IMO. If our team follows anything similar to "the game script" (I know more of a football term) but the type of games that we won more than not (1 run games/comeback wins), then the back end of the bullpen is really important for this type of team. IMO that is due to the fact that we don't have an elite offense nor an elite pitching staff which makes us overly reliant on elite performance from the back of the bullpen. With Bautista gone for the year and with Cano our only reliable late inning guy, I don't think it is a wise proposition to subtract from the bullpen (Wells and Hall) who could be good high leverage guys and replace them with the Perezs and Coulombes of the world. That is likely to end in serious regression from our team.

IMO in order to be a winning/playoff team in today's game you have to be elite in one of 3 areas - offense, starting pitching, high leverage/back end of your bullpen. This past year it was our bullpen, if we subtract from that next year, what do we have but hope? Hope that Grayson AND Bradish are elite and magically some of the others overperform and turn into very good consistent starters? Or our offense becomes elite as Gunnar continues his ascension into superstardom COMBINED with Adley hitting for more power, Holliday being an elite hitter as a rookie, Santander continuing his high twenty/low 30 homer seasons, AND one of Kjerstad/Mayo being a very good offensive player for the season. That's A LOT to hope for IMO.

And even then, with a shaky back end of the pen, we would probably still regress.

[Bemorewins]

**sorry - I should have clarified. I shouldn't have said "good/playoff team" but instead should have stated contender. **

[RZNJ]

My biggest concern is the bullpen next year but Felix is impossible to replace.   That said, I agree that Wells and Hall are probably needed in the bullpen and questionable (durability for both) in the rotation.

 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Elias' taste for a guy like this this winter is kind of a clue what he thinks of McDermott and Povich.

They are already old.     It is just a byproduct of pitching development these days no rookie SP can go 26 weeks, so a Club is always getting 6.x years, if they even end up tendering them that long.    

Kremer 162, Bradish 162, Grayson 162, Means 162

Irvin 90, Hall 90, Wells 90

That would be about 900 innings from seven length pitchers.

This year including Gibson the top 6 guys did about 850 innings.     Figure one of Hall/Wells as the 7th guy ends up more of a full-time reliever.

Does Justin Armbreuster get Bruce Zimmermann's kind of gig?

While I don't trust Wells to throw a year, I do trust Wells to credibly cover a rotation job for a month or three if one of the main four is unavailable.

Every July we're going to be in the market for pitching until the talent basket is more balanced, so Aug/Sep I think its fair to project somebody from one of the Verlander-Montgomery-Flaherty realms joining the roster for a value bid.    The offseason is prologue to July 31 while this many farm assets are hoarded.

How they handle McDermott and Povich (and how they pitch) will be interesting to watch.  

I like the idea of Wells in the Ranger Suarez-lite role.  More RP heavy, but 'next man up' just in case.

Remember when guys like Zimmermann, Wojciechowski, and Watkins were needed contributors?  Yeah, good times!  McDermott and Povich are better and less needed.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Are they still? 

 

 

I think there’s been increasing appreciation that really good RP used optimally in high leverage are more valuable than mediocre starters, in a way that WAR struggles to capture. And that effect is magnified in the postseason when scheduled off days mean you could use every reliever in your bullpen every game. 

The problem is that relievers are so volatile, it’s hard to consistently capture those really good seasons, even for the really elite RP. Established SP are a lot more consistent. So when talking about 6 years of control of a guy like Hall, the upside of becoming a consistent #3-4 starter is more valuable than a great RP. But for Wells, who is now down to 4 years of control and potentially Super 2 arb eligible this season, as the clock runs down it becomes more appealing to lean into the volatility, because you do still need great RP and he has that potential.

[webbrick2010]

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