Worrying about RISP regression

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think either Gunnar or Adley could be an .850+ guy.  Frankly, I’d expected Adley to be an .850+ guy last year, as he was in the second half of 2022.  And Gunnar is adding to his game all the time.  

If Gunnar can combine the second half hitting with the first half walk rate...

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If Gunnar can combine the second half hitting with the first half walk rate...

I think he’s still calibrating the patience/aggressiveness tradeoff.  He was too patient in April and May, and perhaps was too aggressive at times in the second half.   There’s a happy medium somewhere that’s the best version of Gunnar, and I expect he’ll find his way there eventually.   

Honestly, I could say the same of Adley.  He’s still learning when to ambush a pitcher and when to try to pull the ball vs. going the other way.  
 

[Orioles0615]

15 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Its possible, though I think the eventual peak teams closer to genuine 100-win teams will give us one or two better than 2023's impostor 100 win teams.     Marginal Wins 88-100 probably don't feel very valuable in some front offices this minute with NL6 repeating as their league champion.

SHH don't say this on the Orioles subreddit. That place is the deftition of toxic positivity. 

[LookinUp]

18 hours ago, Since1984 said:

Without researching, I believe the success relates to platoons, pinch hitting, and several hot streaks...

The biggest improvement will need to come from within. It would also be nice to add a big bat.

All of that said, I wonder how much validity there is to the post above. A hallmark of Elias' management has been platooning right and left handers. There's a reason for that and it's to be able to create favorable matchups for your team.

I don't have any insight on how much of this difference from the norm could be related to that. I doubt it's more than half (just a guess). That said, I do think there's a method to Elias' madness that supports better results in those situations.

[btdart20]

The buzzword for 2022 was "veteranosity" and personified by Odor.  For 2023, it was "clutchiness" and personified by Frazier.  

I do think the low K% impacts the "clutchiness" factor with RISP.  And I suspect BB% moves the needle much less than Babip does.  But agree with the idea that we can't bank on the tailwinds we had in the 2023 RISP success.  It's best to increase the total # of RISP.

 

The O's were middle of the pack for the top 5 spots' OPS.  The expected teams are at the top (ATL, LAD, TEX, TBR, HOU, PHI).  This OPS gap is why I don't see us trading Santander away this year.

2023 MLB Team Rankings Of Ops From The First 5 Spots In The Batting Order | StatMuse

 

Our 2023 batting order was all over the map.  It was an attempt by management to maximize bench spots/talent and platoon splits in a Raysian fashion as a way to cover for lesser top-tier talent.

Only Adley, Gunnar, and Santander are top 5 hitters (and Mounty vs. LHP).

 

Paths to improvement:

1) One of Holliday/Cowser settles in as a lead-off hitter with a .350+ OBP.

2) One of Mayo/HK settles in as a MOO with a .785+ OPS (maybe not season-long, but that type of hitter heading into the playoffs).

3) Bring in a better power hitter (who mashed RHP as a RHH).  Soler/Duvall/JD Martinez/J. Turner fit the mold while Cowser/Mayo/HK move along their Rookie Integration Plan.  

4)  If two of the above happens, then neither O'Hearn nor Mounty are in the top 5 vs. RHP.  I don't think we can assume O'Hearn continues to have a .800+ OPS (and then be pleasantly surprised if he can repeat it).  And Mounty's stripes vs. RHP aren't changing.  Assuming we continue with this platoon, whoever gets the bulk of time vs. RHP at 1B should hit no higher than 6th.

5) Improve the bottom 3 spots. 

2023 Orioles triple slash for the 7th-9th spot:

   7th - .230/.305/.377 (.682)

   8th - .249/.302/.413 (.715)

   9th - .225/.292/.324 (.616)

Not having/minimizing Frazier, Mateo, and Urias will improve these spots.  All of our other usual non-prospect (non-McCann) suspects to fill in the bottom 4 spots will likely post a higher than .715 OPS:  Hays, Westburg, Mullins (even Urias has a .730 career OPS).  There's a good chance that the majority of the top prospects will as well:  Cowser, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, HK, Holliday.

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think either Gunnar or Adley could be an .850+ guy.  Frankly, I’d expected Adley to be an .850+ guy last year, as he was in the second half of 2022.  And Gunnar is adding to his game all the time.  

I think Gunnar is the most likely current player to get there. I also expected more from Adley this year, but maybe the wear and tear of catching every day got to him. It’s possible that Mayo or Kjerstad become that elite hitter. 

[Frobby]

Guys who were just crazy good with RISP this year (RISP OPS/Overall OPS):

Mullins 1.025/.721

Hicks .980/.806

Mountcastle .941/.779

Henderson .935/.814

Frazier .932/.696

Santander .919/.797

O’Hearn .891/.801

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think Gunnar is the most likely current player to get there. I also expected more from Adley this year, but maybe the wear and tear of catching every day got to him. It’s possible that Mayo or Kjerstad become that elite hitter. 

I can see Mountcastle having a season in which he just stays hot.  Sort of like Schoop in 2017.