Would you trade Cowser and Ortiz for Cease

[Aristotelian]

If Cease repeated his 2022 I would say yes, but he is coming off an off year. I wouldn't do this deal myself but I wouldn't be upset if Elias did it. I do think this is about what it would take to get Cease.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If Cease repeated his 2022 I would say yes, but he is coming off an off year. I wouldn't do this deal myself but I wouldn't be upset if Elias did it. I do think this is about what it would take to get Cease.

If Cease had followed up his 2022 with a similar season in 2023, the price would a lot more painful.

[maybenxtyr]

I would support the trade if Cease had 3 years of control left. His innings and K's look good, but that's a lot of team control to give up for 2 years . I think they could do better with the right trade partner.

[Roll Tide]

I wonder if Keller or Oviedo are available from the Pirates? They finished 16 games out in their division. Keller has 3 years left that are his arb years. They have a need at 2B and 1B.

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I wonder if Keller or Oviedo are available from the Pirates? They finished 16 games out in their division. Keller has 3 years left that are his arb years. They have a need at 2B and 1B.

Keller has 2 years left. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m guessing that would put conversations in a holding pattern.  It’s no different than Hahn asking for Holiday at the deadline last year, which was a non-serious ask in hopes of gaining leverage.  Honestly, both sides need to be more serious if there is any hope a deal can be made.  I’m hopeful that Getz will come in with a more realistic opening offer to all interested parties because he doesn’t have to win a sell side trade on day one to keep his job.

I wonder how you define more serious?  There is a case to be made that Cease shouldn’t fetch a top 100 guy at all…and there is a case that can be made that he should fetch a top 50 guy. I would argue that there is no case to be made that he can get a top 20ish prospect.

[OriolesMagic83]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wonder how you define more serious?  There is a case to be made that Cease shouldn’t fetch a top 100 guy at all…and there is a case that can be made that he should fetch a top 50 guy. I would argue that there is no case to be made that he can get a top 20ish prospect.

Giolito got traded at the deadline for a borderline top 100 guy.  It's hard to say that 2 months of Giolito got that much and 2 years of Cease, a better pitcher by almost every measure would get no more.

[Chicago White Sox]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wonder how you define more serious?  There is a case to be made that Cease shouldn’t fetch a top 100 guy at all…and there is a case that can be made that he should fetch a top 50 guy. I would argue that there is no case to be made that he can get a top 20ish prospect.

There is no case that a guy who ranked 18th in fWAR last year with two seasons of cheap control left and is one year away from a runner Cy Young season doesn’t warrant a top 100 prospect.  The majority of top prospects are 50 FV guys and they bust over 50% of the time.  Based on a Fangraphs’ study, the average total fWAR expected out of one of these guys during their control period is like 3 wins.  Cease will give you more than that in one year while being paid like a 1 win player.  And that doesn’t reflect the premium that SP is at the moment.  Again, I wouldn’t trade a legit top 25 prospect or 60 FV type for the 2023 version of Cease, but I’d certainly give a up 55 FV guy like Hjerstad plus a nice second piece.  Let’s not ignore the fact that Cease would have been fourth on your team in fWAR despite his down season and you guys actually have a really good team.  Despite his warts, he’s a much better player than many here are suggesting.

[Chicago White Sox]

34 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Giolito got traded at the deadline for a borderline top 100 guy.  It's hard to say that 2 months of Giolito got that much and 2 years of Cease, a better pitcher by almost every measure would get no more.

Exactly, although I’d point out that Quero was a consensus top 100 guy, ranking #70 in Baseball America’s mid-season.  We also got the Angel’s #3 prospect in that same trade. Cease will command much more than that package given both his cheap control and his potential ceiling.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Exactly, although I’d point out that Quero was a consensus top 100 guy, ranking #70 in Baseball America’s mid-season.  We also got the Angel’s #3 prospect in that same trade. Cease will command much more than that package given both his cheap control and his potential ceiling.

Just curious. Most folks on here would rather part with Cowser than Kjerstad and some rankings like mlb and Baseball America have Cowser top 20 overall and rated higher than Kjerstad.   What are your feelings on Cowser and Ortiz for Cease?  

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is no case that a guy who ranked 18th in fWAR last year with two seasons of cheap control left and is one year away from a runner Cy Young season doesn’t warrant a top 100 prospect.  The majority of top prospects are 50 FV guys and they bust over 50% of the time.  Based on a Fangraphs’ study, the average total fWAR expected out of one of these guys during their control period is like 3 wins.  Cease will give you more than that in one year while being paid like a 1 win player.  And that doesn’t reflect the premium that SP is at the moment.  Again, I wouldn’t trade a legit top 25 prospect or 60 FV type for the 2023 version of Cease, but I’d certainly give a up 55 FV guy like Hjerstad plus a nice second piece.  Let’s not ignore the fact that Cease would have been fourth on your team in fWAR despite his down season and you guys actually have a really good team.  Despite his warts, he’s a much better player than many here are suggesting.

I like fWAR as much as anyone on this site but you have to dig a little deeper imo.

His velo drop isn’t something to dismiss. That could be a bigger issue as the years go on.

His exit velo and hard hit% numbers were pretty bad last year.

His K rate, while still excellent, has gone down each of the last few years. His walk rate, which has never really been good, has gone up the last few years. His ERA, xFIP, FIP and xERA were his worst since 2019 (I’m throwing out 2020).

He throws strikes at a well below league average rate and 2023 was the worst since 2019. His swingstr%, while still excellent, has also gone down the last few years.

All of this is to say that he is simply trending in the wrong direction. Until he proves otherwise, 2022 is an aberration and he isn’t close to that pitcher. 

Now, he plays for one of the worst organizations in the sport. Maybe that has a lot to do with this stuff and that would personally be my hope but I that’s a risk.

You speak about his durability and that’s true..32 starts each of the last 3 seasons but he’s not eating a ton of innings either. He’s very Chris Tillman like in that regards.

So, you have a pitcher who is trending in the wrong direction and isn’t a big innings eater. He has 2 years left and will start to get paid decent money, although admittingly still less than he is likely worth on the field.

So yea, I can see why someone wouldn’t think he’s worth a top 100 guy or if he is, more of a borderline top 100 guy like Norby is..like Beavers probably is from some and likely will be soon by most.

I think he’s worth more and I agree that there is some undervaluing of him on here but I also think you are overrating him.

Im guessing you say no to the poll question here but that’s not an offer they are likely to beat and it’s by no means a deal that screams, the Os must do this.

If the WS are valuing Cease as a guy who should net them a top 25 prospect plus more, I think there is no chance they trade him. His other years just don’t support that amount of value.

Has there been any talk of the White Sox making Robert available?

Edited November 7, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Exactly, although I’d point out that Quero was a consensus top 100 guy, ranking #70 in Baseball America’s mid-season.  We also got the Angel’s #3 prospect in that same trade. Cease will command much more than that package given both his cheap control and his potential ceiling.

Well first of all, the Angels have a garbage system, so #3 for them would be like our 15th best prospect.

Secondly, deadline deals for pitchers always fetch more. It’s not a bad point to make but it’s a little apples to oranges.

[Spy Fox]

Cowser-Ortiz is a little too steep for Cease. I think that package could get back a younger SP with more years of control. 

I would happily do Cowser or Ortiz, plus a lower prospect or two.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

You speak about his durability and that’s true..32 starts each of the last 3 seasons but he’s not eating a ton of innings either. He’s very Chris Tillman like in that regards.

In an otherwise very thoughtful post, this was a curious remark.  Tillman threw 206 and 207 innings for us in 2013-14.  He was headed towards a similar total in 2016 before hurting his shoulder in mid-August.  I’d say he was very much an innings eater in his better years.  

I want to reiterate a point about Cease that I made earlier: like all White Sox pitchers, he’s been hurt by a very shoddy White Sox defense that costs its pitchers a lot of extra outs and runs.  Over the last 3 years:

Rtot: -48(28th), -67(30th), -65(27th)

Rdrs: -40 (28th), -35(26th), -59(29th)

FG Def: -20.1 (22nd), -35.1(28th), -38.5(30th)

Put Cease on a better defensive team and he will show a significant drop in ERA.  I agree with other points you made in your post showing genuine deterioration by Cease last year, so those are yellow flags.  But if we got Cease I’d certainly pencil him in to be in our top 3, with some upside to be better than that.  
 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Exactly, although I’d point out that Quero was a consensus top 100 guy, ranking #70 in Baseball America’s mid-season.  We also got the Angel’s #3 prospect in that same trade. Cease will command much more than that package given both his cheap control and his potential ceiling.

I’m curious about what you think the Sox should be doing the next two years.  Can they restructure and be competitive in that window, or is this a 2+ year rebuilding project (in which case, Cease really should be traded now)?  And what do you think the biggest Sox problems are?  Bad defense is clearly one, as I’ve pointed out.  Is there a culture problem there?