Cease vs everyone else

[Hank Scorpio]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

What exactly is Getz doing wrong?

Yeah, not telling O's fans what they want to hear I guess. 

What does he have to lose by holding onto him for another 6 months? Sometimes at the deadline there is more of a sense of urgency. I'm not sure his value declines all that much come end of July 2024.

[Hank Scorpio]

Just now, SoxFan3344 said:

If it takes Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich to keep Cease away from the Yankees, are you doing it?

I wouldn't do that, no. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, SoxFan3344 said:

If it takes Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich to keep Cease away from the Yankees, are you doing it?

Keeping him away from the Yankees isn’t really the goal.

The goal is to make the best deal possible.

I still say Kjerstad or Cowser and Ortiz is the best deal they can get and there is no need to add a third piece.

But I also question if that deal makes sense for them depending on when their time table to start contending is.

[SoxFan3344]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Keeping him away from the Yankees isn’t really the goal.

The goal is to make the best deal possible.

I still say Kjerstad or Cowser and Ortiz is the best deal they can get and there is no need to add a third piece.

But I also question if that deal makes sense for them depending on when their time table to start contending is.

So, no? 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If it takes Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich to keep Cease away from the Yankees, are you doing it?

I am willing to consider a third piece, but I doubt I’d give up Povich.  We’re just too thin on pitching prospects at the upper levels.  

And I agree with @Sports Guythat I don’t think it matters whether the Yankees are the team we are competing with for Cease.
 

Edited January 9 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

So, no? 

No, not that deal.  I would go three players in a deal but not with a top 35 and top 75 guy.   I mean, I guess I would give them a third player I don’t care about losing but I don’t know what value that would be to them.

Edited January 9 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If it takes Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich to keep Cease away from the Yankees, are you doing it?

Assuming the Orioles feel like Cease is physically sound, yes.  Here’s why.

1. As they say you have to give something to get something.

2. Henderson, Holliday, and Westburg looks good t me.  We can afford to let Ortiz go and play SS somewhere else.  I have more confidence that Westburg will hit.

3. With Mayo potentially as a RF, 2 LH corner of in Cowser and Beavers, and LH power bat Basallo a year away, we can also withstand the loss of Kjerstad.

4. I’m just not high on Povich.  I think the LH angle is appealing to some.  I like McDermott more.

5. Good chance we get a draft pick in 2 years which would be a higher pick than either Ortiz or Povich was.

6. The bad version of Cease is still not bad but you’re paying a little extra for the “maybe”.

[forphase1]

31 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If it takes Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich to keep Cease away from the Yankees, are you doing it?

Nope.

[wildbillhiccup]

36 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If it takes Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich to keep Cease away from the Yankees, are you doing it?

No, but that's mostly because trading a young solid pitching prospect to acquire a two year rental seems like robbing Peter to save Paul. I'd be willing to add a third piece, just not Povich because we just don't have the pitching depth in the minors to afford to lose him. 

For what it's worth if I was Getz I would be interested in Cowser much more than Kjerstad. The Sox already have two essentially positionless/poor defensive hitters on their roster in Jimenez and Vaughn and potentially adding a a third would concern me a bit. 

[deward]

42 minutes ago, SoxFan3344 said:

If it takes Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Povich to keep Cease away from the Yankees, are you doing it?

Only if my internal analysis tells me with a high degree of confidence that something approximating the 2022 version of Cease can be consistently unlocked. Otherwise, no.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

No, but that's mostly because trading a young solid pitching prospect to acquire a two year rental seems like robbing Peter to save Paul. I'd be willing to add a third piece, just not Povich because we just don't have the pitching depth in the minors to afford to lose him. 

For what it's worth if I was Getz I would be interested in Cowser much more than Kjerstad. The Sox already have two essentially positionless/poor defensive hitters on their roster in Jimenez and Vaughn and potentially adding a a third would concern me a bit. 

What do you put the odds of Povich having the career Cease has had?

I think it's pretty long.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, deward said:

Only if my internal analysis tells me with a high degree of confidence that something approximating the 2022 version of Cease can be consistently unlocked. Otherwise, no.

This is actually a good point in general..it’s easy for us to say yes or no but there is going to be some data and info that we aren’t privy too. If, for example, the Os feel it’s an easy fix to get Cease back to where he was in 2022 and they don’t value Kjerstad or Cowser as much as we think they do, then I feel a trade is much more palatable to do, even if it feels like we are giving up too much.

[Roll Tide]

 

[wildbillhiccup]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What do you put the odds of Povich having the career Cease has had?

I think it's pretty long.

It's not as simple as comparing the two because Cease will be gone after 2025 season. Therein lies my concern. I really don't want Elias to be in a position where's he's doing an unintentional Vincent Vega impression when he scans the roster looking for five serviceable SPs in 2026. 

 

[Greg Pappas]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Assuming the Orioles feel like Cease is physically sound, yes.  Here’s why.

1. As they say you have to give something to get something.

2. Henderson, Holliday, and Westburg looks good t me.  We can afford to let Ortiz go and play SS somewhere else.  I have more confidence that Westburg will hit.

3. With Mayo potentially as a RF, 2 LH corner of in Cowser and Beavers, and LH power bat Basallo a year away, we can also withstand the loss of Kjerstad.

4. I’m just not high on Povich.  I think the LH angle is appealing to some.  I like McDermott more.

5. Good chance we get a draft pick in 2 years which would be a higher pick than either Ortiz or Povich was.

6. The bad version of Cease is still not bad but you’re paying a little extra for the “maybe”.

I understand what you're talking about, as a GM must take these things into consideration, but I don't think it's prudent to say that we have players A, B, C, D, and E even after the trade, so therefore it's okay to pull the trigger.  I see your post as a 'Part One' of sorts, and again, that's important in order to consider the trade, but the other part to why a trade should or should not be agreed to is perceived value. 

What is the value of Ortiz worth in the trade market (as well as his value to you)?  Same with Kjerstad and Povich.  Add that value up versus the other team's player(s), with Part One factored into the equation, and there's your answer.   

An example of this is trading Holliday straight up for Cease.  We would still have Westburg, Ortiz, and Gunnar (and Kjerstad and Povich), but we wouldn't do it because Holliday has more value than Cease.   I'm sure you understand this, but just wanted to elaborate.