Cease vs everyone else

[Roll Tide]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Tide, you have to do better over there.  Basallo is 19 almost all year and starting in AA.  Even if he was just a 1B, everything about him says “special”.  BUT, consensus says this kid can stick at catcher.  If we didn’t have Rutschman, Basallo would be our catcher of the future.  As it is, he’ll probably split time there and elsewhere.   I’m trading Kjerstad before Basallo if that’s the choice.  We have a bunch of very good prospects and we have Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.

When the baseball writer suggested it might take Kjerstad instead of Basallo you should have been all over that.   No problemo.  

I think he ends up too big to stick at catcher …he’s already 6’3” abd 180 lbs and hasn’t filled out yet. I think Kjerstad has the higher floor and could be great here. I’m not saying we should it’s just my preference. It will take a few years to figure out who’s right

[Roll Tide]

45 minutes ago, Otter said:

I think you answered your own question.  You mentioned 3 positions and 3 prospects.  Santander will be gone after this year, and Mountcastle/O'Hearn shouldn't block these three elite prospects.  We also know the old adage if you hit they'll find a place for you to play...

Norby probably would question your logic? Ortiz? 

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Told ya Cease staying out was a distinct possibility. 

Well, obviously, but Bob Noghtengale writing it doesn’t make it any more or less likely to happen.  

[Roll Tide]

36 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I doubt it's posturing, but I strongly disagree with the sentiment that the White Sox can afford to be patient. The odds of Cease actually pitching well enough to offset the depreciating value of his remaining contract time are very small IMO. 

 

100% agree …Getz most likely regrets the foot dragging much like we did with Machado 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

It's been argued to death, but what the hell, one more time.

ERA is a valuable statistic but it's an outcome measurement. If you look at the underlying metrics to Cease, he has far more upside than what his ERA has been in 2023 and 2021. The White Sox and their fans are probably overstating that value a bit, but we shouldn't understate it either. He'd be a legitimate top-3 rotational candidate and make our rotation much more dependable and dangerous in a playoff series. I hope we'd coach him to attack a little bit more and minimize walks to get him deeper into games, but outside of that, he has really good stuff.

You are saying he is a top 3.  I am saying he is a #3 behind Bradish and GRod.    Sounds pretty similar.    The O's to pay for him like he is a #3.

[ThisIsBirdland]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are saying he is a top 3.  I am saying he is a #3 behind Bradish and GRod.    Sounds pretty similar.    The O's to pay for him like he is a #3.

Yup, he's a top 3 because we have Bradish and GRod. If all three of them play to their realistic potential they have the chance to all be #1s, and if either of them struggle or regress they'd still likely be valuable as a #3. That's not to be diminished. For two years of control he's probably worth just a little bit less than what the White Sox are asking for; we just have to wait for the White Sox to get there.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 Nothing wrong with asking for a lot but when everyone is telling you that the offer is too much maybe you are misreading the market.

I know you have done plenty of negotiating in your various jobs, and so have I.  People have different negotiating styles.  Some people hold on to their position for a very long time, but when they start to move off it, they’ll move quite a bit to get a deal done.  Other people budge very little.  We’ll just have to see what Getz does and how well it works.  We don’t even know if Elias has put a concrete offer on the table.

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are saying he is a top 3.  I am saying he is a #3 behind Bradish and GRod.    Sounds pretty similar.    The O's to pay for him like he is a #3.

I'm probably one of the biggest Dylan Cease 2022 doubters out there,  but to say that he would slot behind Grayson Rodriguez in terms of talent/ability (at least right now) might be one of the most blind homeristic takes I've ever read on this message board. 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Where?

I Just listened to a current  Rosenthal video on You Tube.   That is what he was saying.  He puts Cease at the top ahead of the young  O's starters.

[Frobby]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

I'm probably one of the biggest Dylan Cease 2022 doubters out there,  but to say that he would slot behind Grayson Rodriguez in terms of talent/ability (at least right now) might be one of the most blind homeristic takes I've ever read on this message board. 

Here’s the thing: we just need Cease to slot somewhere in our top 3.  He’s had a volatile career, but overall he’s been pretty good.  If he’s good enough to bump Kremer to no. 4, that’s sufficient.  If he’s better than Bradish and/or GRod, that’s a bonus.   

I’d say if we got Cease, there’s a 25% chance he’ll be better than both Bradish and GRod, a 50% chance he’ll be better than one of them, and a 25% chance that he’s worse than both of them.  
 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm probably one of the biggest Dylan Cease 2022 doubters out there,  but to say that he would slot behind Grayson Rodriguez in terms of talent/ability (at least right now) might be one of the most blind homeristic takes I've ever read on this message board. 

I guess that depends on whether you believe Cease can repeat 2022  in the next two years.   I for one  don't think that is a good bet.

Then add in that Cease may only be with he O's for one year because they don't want him to walk and get nothing back.

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, Frobby said:

Here’s the thing: we just need Cease to slot somewhere in our top 3.  He’s had a volatile career, but overall he’s been pretty good.  If he’s good enough to bump Kremer to no. 4, that’s sufficient.  If he’s better than Bradish and/or GRod, that’s a bonus.   

I’d say if we got Cease, there’s a 25% chance he’ll be better than both Bradish and GRod, a 50% chance he’ll be better than one of them, and a 25% chance that he’s worse than both of them.  
 

I get that, but even a mediocre Cease (i.e., not 2022) is a significantly more valuable MLB pitcher than Grayson Rodriguez at this point in their careers. Maybe that changes after this season, but I doubt that there is a single MLB team that would take Rodriguez over Cease just for the 2024 season. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I guess that depends on whether you believe Cease can repeat 2022  in the next two years.   I for one  don't think that is a good bet.

Then add in that Cease may only be with he O's for one year because they don't want him to walk and get nothing back.

See my prior response. 

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

I get that, but even a mediocre Cease (i.e., not 2022) is a significantly more valuable MLB pitcher than Grayson Rodriguez at this point in their careers. Maybe that changes after this season, but I doubt that there is a single MLB team that would take Rodriguez over Cease just for the 2024 season. 

 

[NCRaven]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

She's dating a ballplayer so she's relevant. 

I just meant that I don’t care if she’s young enough to be my grand daughter! 

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yup. And all the geniuses on the White Sox board will be pissed he wasn’t traded. 

Well it will be Elias’ fault.