Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Safelykept said:

Tony, you're good but you're discounting Wells, not because you have him in the BP but because  you have him as a long man Wells is back end BP 

As I stated in another thread, I have concerns about his penchant for allowing home runs for him to be a back end guy. Plus, we know he can go multiple innings and there's value in that for keeping Hyde from burning through his bullpen like he did in the first half last year.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Who is manipulating data? You are being ridiculous. Whatever your hate for this guy is, it's unfounded. You've been proven wrong, not with manipulation, but with actual stats that matter. No one is cherry picking anything. 

Feel free to hate the signing and player all you want, but the stats say this is a great signing and the more I dig into his numbers the more I like what I see from him last year after the bad start. Last year's poor start was an outlier to his career.

In fact, if anyone is cherry picking, it’s him.  He essentially holding onto a few bad outings that is a tiny % of what he did in 2023. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Who is manipulating data? You are being ridiculous. Whatever your hate for this guy is, it's unfounded. You've been proven wrong, not with manipulation, but with actual stats that matter. No one is cherry picking anything. 

Feel free to hate the signing and player all you want, but the stats say this is a great signing and the more I dig into his numbers the more I like what I see from him last year after the bad start. Last year's poor start was an outlier to his career.

I just meant excluding and/or deemphasizing his bad (outings) and only focusing the good. We're signing the entire package, not just the "good" Kimbrel. I hope he can keep his sh*t together for the entire season, but his recent history suggests that at least some point in the season we're all going to be calling for his head on a stake. Hope I'm wrong.  

[24fps]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Isn’t the goal to gradually build SP innings?  If so, why are we giving up on Wells as a SP?  What if he expounds on his 2023 1st half and carries that deeper into 2024?  The AL leader in WHIP at the ASB. That’s not a luck stat. 

What if Means can’t go 180 IP?  I suspect he will deliver half a good season which means Wells will get to pick up the other half.  Whatever the details, I think it’s prudent to not count on a full season from Means in 2024. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

I just meant excluding and/or deemphasizing his bad (outings) and only focusing the good. We're signing the entire package, not just the "good" Kimbrel. I hope he can keep his sh*t together for the entire season, but his recent history suggests that at least some point in the season we're all going to be calling for his head on a stake. Hope I'm wrong.  

As opposed to you who is just focusing on the bad?  At least the good represented over 90% of his season.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, 24fps said:

What if Means can’t go 180 IP?  I suspect he will deliver half a good season which means Wells will get to pick up the other half.  Whatever the details, I think it’s prudent to not count on a full season from Means in 2024. 

I like lefty SP in OPACY. Irvin, Hall, and Zimmerman, at home are good options. Irvin looks really good if you knock out April. I think we’re just now built for home ballpark. It would be nice to have one more LH SP. Maybe Hall finally puts it together with some MLB success out the pen. 

[George Zuverink]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the mental stress angle is way overplayed.

Every season we see multiple guys move into the closer role and do just fine.

The number that seemingly can't handle the stress is pretty small.

Mt. Fuji says”konnichiwa.”

[Safelykept]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

As I stated in another thread, I have concerns about his penchant for allowing home runs for him to be a back end guy. Plus, we know he can go multiple innings and there's value in that for keeping Hyde from burning through his bullpen like he did in the first half last year.

And you did < but he gives up  HRs as a starter as well and thats all he basically does, Hes not Cole Irvin hes  One of our best Pitches Hes Back End

[Spy Fox]

Part of what you're paying for with Kimbrel isn't exactly the name brand, or the closing experience, it's the career-long consistency. The reason he 417 SVs is because he's been at least pretty good in 12 of his 14 MLB seasons. That's rare longevity and consistency for a reliever. His two bad seasons 2019/2020 were a combined 35 innings, or about half of a typical season sample size for him. He's older so the end could come any year, but there's some value in that track record of figuring it out. 

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

In fact, if anyone is cherry picking, it’s him.  He essentially holding onto a few bad outings that is a tiny % of what he did in 2023. 

I'm not cherry picking anything, I'm looking at all of the data. You're the one excluding a bad outing here and a bad outing there just to fit your narrative. And if you're going to insert yourself in my conversation maybe I should dig up all those posts where you condescendingly lectured me on how I was "completely" overvaluing Woo and Miller. Still feel the same after the potential Parades for Woo/Miller trade that was leaked? Can't wait to read the three paragraphs you write explaining how you were weren't wrong and how you don't give "two sh*ts". [insert Michael Jackson eating popcorn GIF].

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Pitchers get hurt so often that the Orioles are going to stack the depth chart well beyond 8 RP and 5 SP. On Opening Day, some guys with options could be squeezed down to AAA if injuries haven’t opened up roster space. They’ll still ultimately play significant roles on the team over the course of the season.

I expect both Hall and Wells to come into Spring Training stretched out as starters. Where they go from there depends on the health of the roster on Opening Day. I could certainly see a scenario where one or both go to AAA to stay stretched out as SP, even though they would be among the top 8 RP, just due to the numbers game and them having options.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

Mt. Fuji says”konnichiwa.”

Huh?

Guy has always had issues with his command.

Any given appearance he could be lights out or a dumpster fire.

Didn't he come up real big in a high leverage spot his second or third appearance?

[LookinUp]

35 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Because I watched him temporarily lose his job to Jose Alvarado last season because he was so bad in April and May and then watched him implode again in August and the playoffs. I just don't think Kimbrel is a set it and forget it closer at this point in his career, and that would have been the only type of closer I would have ponied up for (either money wise or via a trade). Otherwise, I would have just focused more on signing a good bullpen arm will less closing experience. To me the closing experience part isn't that important, but I guess Elias is of a different mindset. 

I don't think the goal for Elias is to sign an elite closer in free agency. His goal is to sign a really good bullpen arm "with closing experience." 

I think our bullpen just got better over 162 games. You figure out the playoffs when that time comes, or maybe make a deal at the deadline if necessary.

[interloper]

19 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I just meant excluding and/or deemphasizing his bad (outings) and only focusing the good. We're signing the entire package, not just the "good" Kimbrel. I hope he can keep his sh*t together for the entire season, but his recent history suggests that at least some point in the season we're all going to be calling for his head on a stake. Hope I'm wrong.  

How is pointing to a couple of bad outings NOT cherry-picking, but pointing to his overall season numbers is? 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not cherry picking anything, I'm looking at all of the data. You're the one excluding a bad outing here and a bad outing there just to fit your narrative.

 

The guy blew 5 saves, against 23 saves and 7 holds.  Thats okay, not spectacular.  He allowed runs in 17 of 71 outings.  Decent, not spectacular.  I expect him to be adequate for his purpose.   Nobody’s expecting him to set the world on fire.