MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[Spy Fox]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think the overwhelming majority of SP trades involve at least 1 SP coming back. Scherzer/Verlander was kind of a weird one - there's a lot of money involved so you typically get less players back. Teams would just take the best player they can get in that case. Not that it's comparable but we traded Cobb for Jahmai Jones and salary relief, for example. So there are examples out there to your point. 

I think a team like Chicago would absolutely be looking for young pitching, otherwise they can just hold onto to Cease for another year. You're giving up a young SP and you can't just not reload that somehow as a rebuilding club.  

The bolded part may be true, since pitchers are half of the players and a lot of these deals involve a bunch of prospects. But it's not a given that teams are disproportionately prioritizing pitching when they trade pitching. The names I mentioned are arguably the four biggest trades of established SPs in the last two years and none were headlined by pitchers. I got curious to look at other recent ones--the Frankie Montas trade was very pitching heavy. Jordan Montgomery was traded for one hitter the first time and for several pitchers the second time. Aaron Civale was traded for one hitter. I think it just depends on the two teams' needs. The O's hitter/pitcher prospect balance might limit their ability to meet certain teams' needs but I don't think it's because those needs are always pitching.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all,  no he doesn’t have a solid chance at that. Stop being a homer.

Secondly, the third piece in the trade was talking about expanding the deal for Kopech, not just Cease

Well I guess I have to define solid.  I'd put solid in the ~20% range.  I definitely think there's a 1 in 5 chance that Wells is better than Cease next year.

Second, ok I just wanted to confirm.  

[StottyByNature]

For all of our talk of a Cowser/Ortiz package you have to wonder if the holdup isn't a third piece the Sox are asking for.  I would imagine they want an arm back and what we have there is questionable.  I would guess we value Hall at much higher than others see him, for example.

[interloper]

I remain skeptical that Cease is even going to be traded. And if he is, I think it will be a team that gives up like 4 top-20 players and we will be glad to not have been involved. I think maybe the Marlins are the best match, or something that we're just not thinking of/won't be thrilled with. 

Starting to feel pretty pessimistic about this off-season as you get the sense that Elias is some combination of gun-shy, prospect-huggy, and/or hamstrung by ownership/lease/sale nonsense. Or teams aren't budging on wanting at least one from our top 4. 

I see guys like Kelenic and Margot and Verdugo getting traded and I'm like, why are we not doing the same with Hays? 

It's tough, we have absolutely nothing to go on right now. 

Edited December 13, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well I guess I have to define solid.  I'd put solid in the ~20% range.  I definitely think there's a 1 in 5 chance that Wells is better than Cease next year.

Second, ok I just wanted to confirm.  

I think it depends on how you are defining better.  Cease, in what was supposedly a down year in 2023, had a 3.7 fWAR.  Wells has a 2.5 fWAR for his career.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all,  no he doesn’t have a solid chance at that. Stop being a homer.

Depends what you think a “solid chance” means.  If Cease repeated 2023 and Wells stayed healthy I could see it.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends what you think a “solid chance” means.  If Cease repeated 2023 and Wells stayed healthy I could see it.   

 Same question I asked Pickles..what measure are you using for “better”?

I’d say his chances are less than 10%..I don’t believe that to be solid.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 Same question I asked Pickles..what measure are you using for “better”?

I’d say his chances are less than 10%..I don’t believe that to be solid.

Well I’m sure not using FIP!

Mostly I’d be judging by ERA and IP, with some adjustments thrown in if there was obvious evidence of bad luck/bad fielding.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

This is how starved we are for news. A rumor of one trade by two other teams and this thread starts blowing up. Well, now I'm contributing to it as well. 

[UMDTerrapins]

If we can't get a #1-3 type starter, I wouldn't mind trading for JP Sears. He's on a garbage rebuilding team with no chance of competing anytime soon, so he's more likely to be available than other pitchers with many years of control. His pitch usage was lousy, and lefties hit him much better than righties. The defense behind him was awful. But he still put up decent numbers. He'd benefit from pitching at CY as a LHP with the deep left field and a solid defense behind him. Elias has a history dealing with Oakland (he's not Cole Irvin, take 2). I want to add a TOR starter like we all do. But If we whiff on that (and we likely will), I wouldn't mind trading for this guy. What would we have to give up?   Here's a poorly written writeup on his 2023 season. https://www.si.com/mlb/athletics/news/opposing-manager-thinks-as-jp-sears-could-have-bright-future

Edited December 13, 2023 by UMDTerrapins

[dystopia]

Kopech would be a good buy low candidate… key words buy low. I’m not giving up anything of value for him. 

[dystopia]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it depends on how you are defining better.  Cease, in what was supposedly a down year in 2023, had a 3.7 fWAR.  Wells has a 2.5 fWAR for his career.

No reasonable person would be using fWAR to define it. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, dystopia said:

No reasonable person would be using fWAR to define it. 

lol…you having your head buried in the sand to complete concepts that give you a larger picture into performance makes others unreasonable.  I got it.  
 

I get it. You think stats are still only the ones on back of baseball cards and what you learned in the 60s.  Maybe some day you will come around to the idea that TVs can be flat too.

[btdart20]

FG posted the ZiPS projections for Seattle for those of us interested in an SP.

2024 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners | FanGraphs Baseball

Tons of questions at 2B, 3B, and RF/LF.  Toss in DH and add that 1B isn't stereotypical power.

2024 Seattle Mariners Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs Baseball

Cole Young might be an option at 2B.  Clase might be an OF option.

They have 5 healthy SPs now.  1 in AAA.  And Robbie Ray on the John Means TJ recovery path.

 

[sportsfan8703]

It's harder to buy the arms than thought.  We have three number 1 picks.  I could see us going pitching heavy now that Elias has stocked the system with a pipeline of bats. Arms are just more valuable than bats.  I've come around that a Cowser for Cease trade makes sense because if we don't get Cease, then realistically who else are we going to get?  Leaving things to chance at the deadline is a huge risk.  Also, two years from now we can QO offer Cease and get a 1st rd pick when he leaves.  I know you can't bank on that, but more than likely it's Cease + 1st rd pick.