Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree with all this.  I don’t think the answer of what’s the best overall alignment is clear yet.  Honestly, it might take all of 2024-25 to sort that out, as some of these guys are still developing defensively.   

Yea, I think it’s likely there will be a lot of juggling of the 3 IF spots  for 2024.  Some of it will be about rest, some will be about figuring things out  and some of it will be about when do you bring guys up.

If Holliday and Mayo start in AAA, i think Mateo at SS vs lefties and Urias at second or third vs righties is what we will see.  You really need both Mateo and Urias on the team to start the year if Holliday isn’t up here to start.

Even if Mayo is here, I still think you need both but if you only have 1 of them, you either don’t have a backup SS or back up second baseman.

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I think it’s likely there will be a lot of juggling of the 3 IF spots  for 2024.  Some of it will be about rest, some will be about figuring things out  and some of it will be about when do you bring guys up.

If Holliday and Mayo start in AAA, i think Mateo at SS vs lefties and Urias at second or third vs righties is what we will see.  You really need both Mateo and Urias on the team to start the year if Holliday isn’t up here to start.

Even if Mayo is here, I still think you need both but if you only have 1 of them, you either don’t have a backup SS or back up second baseman.

I keep saying Mateo would add to his value if he can play the OF. I think they would be foolish not trying him out a good bit in spring training.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going to disagree, it's about maximizing both offensive and defensive production.

If Mayo becomes a solid average 3B the best team alignment has him at third even if it isn't the optimal defensive alignment, since his ceiling on offense is so much higher than say Westburg.

 

Completely agree that’s part of the equation.  Of course you also need to know how good Mayo is at 1B or in a corner spot.   So many permutations to consider here it’s almost mind boggling.  

I have a pretty high regard for Westburg’s offensive potential.   He might end up better than Mountcastle or Hays when OBP is factored in.  He had a 100 OPS+ in his first half-season but a 110-120 figure in 2024 wouldn’t surprise me.  
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

I keep saying Mateo would add to his value if he can play the OF. I think they would be foolish not trying him out a good bit in spring training.  

I can see that but I’m also not concerned about the OF depth. I think we have plenty of that.

The IF depth, for the early part of the year, is a bigger issue.

[IPlayGM]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going to disagree, it's about maximizing both offensive and defensive production.

If Mayo becomes a solid average 3B the best team alignment has him at third even if it isn't the optimal defensive alignment, since his ceiling on offense is so much higher than say Westburg.

 

But even then you have to throw in the wrinkle of does Westburg 3B/Mayo 1B outperform Mayo 3B/ Mountcastle 1B?

As someone said earlier, these are very good problems to have, and they should sort themselves out naturally.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, IPlayGM said:

But even then you have to throw in the wrinkle of does Westburg 3B/Mayo 1B outperform Mayo 3B/ Mountcastle 1B?

As someone said earlier, these are very good problems to have, and they should sort themselves out naturally.

Sure.  Lots of moving parts, lost of possibilities.

I'm just saying the best alignment on defense might be Gunnar at short and Jackson at second.

[CaptainRedbeard]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going to disagree, it's about maximizing both offensive and defensive production.

If Mayo becomes a solid average 3B the best team alignment has him at third even if it isn't the optimal defensive alignment, since his ceiling on offense is so much higher than say Westburg.

 

Oh I completely agree with that, I was saying how you approach optimizing the defensive alignment assuming you are only considering the 3 players playing 2B/3B/SS. 

It’s going to be really interesting to see what they do with Mayo. If he’s a legitimate option at 3B, and it seems like he could be, the equation gets way more complicated because you’re playing somebody down the defensive spectrum if both he and Westburg are in the lineup. Either that’s an outcome they’re ok with for the sake of depth and flexibility, or they make a trade. 

Given the Orioles like depth, moving guys around and rotating guys through DH, I think the most likely outcome is they’re ok with having 4 guys with Gunnar/Holliday/Westburg/Mayo to play 2B/3B/SS, with Mayo/Westburg playing some OF/1B and all of them periodically DHing, and Mayo ultimately not playing much 3B if all 4 are healthy. But it could go a lot of different ways. 

[Rbiggs2525]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

Mateo's role this year makes more sense than any role for Urias

I agree and Orioles should look more into Mateo in OF/CF. He would be nice to have in big left field and I do not think we have backup plan for Cedric just like last year. Ended up working out ok with Hicks. Like it or not he should be in the lineup minimum 50 percent of time vs LHP. 

[forphase1]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I think it’s likely there will be a lot of juggling of the 3 IF spots  for 2024.  Some of it will be about rest, some will be about figuring things out  and some of it will be about when do you bring guys up.

If Holliday and Mayo start in AAA, i think Mateo at SS vs lefties and Urias at second or third vs righties is what we will see.  You really need both Mateo and Urias on the team to start the year if Holliday isn’t up here to start.

Even if Mayo is here, I still think you need both but if you only have 1 of them, you either don’t have a backup SS or back up second baseman.

This is the only real downside to the big trade is that Mateo and Urias are both going to be on the roster and will both get significant playing time as I expect Holiday to start in AAA.  Don't misunderstand, the trade was great and was the right move.   But having Mateo in the lineup that much is a real downer for me.   If we'd kept Ortiz I was hoping for to see him take most of the Mateo/Urias playing time as we moved folks around the IF.  Granted it was a temporary move as once Holiday is ready Ortiz is expendable.  But since he's gone we are stuck with a subpar lineup in the meantime. 

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

This is the only real downside to the big trade is that Mateo and Urias are both going to be on the roster and will both get significant playing time as I expect Holiday to start in AAA.  Don't misunderstand, the trade was great and was the right move.   But having Mateo in the lineup that much is a real downer for me.   If we'd kept Ortiz I was hoping for to see him take most of the Mateo/Urias playing time as we moved folks around the IF.  Granted it was a temporary move as once Holiday is ready Ortiz is expendable.  But since he's gone we are stuck with a subpar lineup in the meantime. 

Without Ortiz, it is a bit weird that we don't have a young guy who projects as a utility guy who can play SS. Norby seems like 2B/LF and so does Vavra, who is now straight up listed as an OF on Norfolk's roster. If we call up Holliday, the Tides SS is between Errol Johnson and Greg Cullen. In Bowie it's not really any better in the SS dept with Collin Burns and Anthony Servideo.

The system is actually kinda thin on SS now that Holliday and Westburg are ML guys and Ortiz is gone.

 

 

Edited February 4 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

I hadn’t realized that the Brewers FO had Astros ties. I’m sure that helped with negotiations with Elias. I’m guessing they valued the draft pick more than most teams because of their ability to draft and develop. They probably also liked the analytics stuff like Ortiz EV and Hall’s FB metrics. 

[spleen1015]

Neither Urias nor Mateo have any options, so I think they start the year on the roster. Mateo would probably make it through waivers. I don't think Urias would. This is doesn't matter to me though.

With them making the 26 man coming out of ST, Mayo and Holliday aren't making it. O'Hearn makes it as a DH/1B option.

They'll start in Norfolk. When Urias gets hurt we'll see one of them.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

This is the only real downside to the big trade is that Mateo and Urias are both going to be on the roster and will both get significant playing time as I expect Holiday to start in AAA.  Don't misunderstand, the trade was great and was the right move.   But having Mateo in the lineup that much is a real downer for me.   If we'd kept Ortiz I was hoping for to see him take most of the Mateo/Urias playing time as we moved folks around the IF.  Granted it was a temporary move as once Holiday is ready Ortiz is expendable.  But since he's gone we are stuck with a subpar lineup in the meantime. 

It’s not likely those guys getting more playing time than we want will have much impact on our record, especially since we have such a soft early schedule.  Those guys have largely been overall positive players for the Os even if they  are flawed.

And the defense shouldn’t fall off.

[Spy Fox]

If everyone is healthy, Urias will be flipped during ST or whenever Holliday/Mayo arrive to take his playing time.

[sportsfan8703]

The dangers of starting Holliday in the minors is that even if we keep him down until mid June, he could still finish 2nd in ROY voting and when back that extra year of control. Meaning 2024 would count as a full year of control. It happened with Adley. 

How much does Holliday not want to go to AAA. That’s our leverage. Hey Kid, sign the extension or go to Norfolk. It’s business and we have to do it.