Roster implications for trading Ortiz

[IPlayGM]

I think we have a 2024 conversation and then a long term conversation, and I feel they are different. For this year, I think it will be 

3B- Westburg

SS- Gunnar

2B- Holiday

When Mayo gets here, and Jackson develops/matures, it will get real interesting. Here’s hoping they are both who we think they are AND Mountcastle plays well, because trading Mounty then allows us to retool and lose nothing, actually gain MLB value.

This is an unbelievably great “problem” to have. Our lineup by mid 2025 could be 1-9 filthy.

[Just Regular]

We have a dining room mirror where from a certain chair you can see the game on in the living room, and its worth trying once if you can contrive the setup.

Watch one routine ground out, and it will astonish your brain's pattern recognition expectations.

 

[Billy F-Face3]

To start Opening Day 2024, if there's no more trades and everyone is healthy, then I'm predicting an infield of

1B Mountcastle / O'Hearn / Santander

2B Westburg / Urias 

SS Henderson / Mateo / Westburg 

3B Urias / Henderson / Westburg 

I think Connor Norby has an outside shot at getting an early call and manning 2nd Base. I think he gets an opportunity before Jackson Holliday because he's older and has already spent so much time dominating AAA. But honestly they should do for Norby like they did for Ortiz and trade him to a team that really needs him for some better pitching (I'm thinking relief pitcher.)

Also it doesn't really work for a platoon to have 2 RHB at the same position. So that tidbit gives Jackson a boost in his chances.

[CaptainRedbeard]

50 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I think we have a 2024 conversation and then a long term conversation, and I feel they are different. For this year, I think it will be 

3B- Westburg

SS- Gunnar

2B- Holiday

When Mayo gets here, and Jackson develops/matures, it will get real interesting. Here’s hoping they are both who we think they are AND Mountcastle plays well, because trading Mounty then allows us to retool and lose nothing, actually gain MLB value.

This is an unbelievably great “problem” to have. Our lineup by mid 2025 could be 1-9 filthy.

I think the lineup on Opening Day is going to be filthy, or at least once Holliday is called up. If Holliday slots in as the lead off hitter, then for 2024-2025 the 7/8/9 hitters are Hays/Mullins/Westburg. That’s pretty insane. They could legit have 1-9 of all above average hitters.

With Holliday/Adley/Gunnar at up the middle positions the Orioles are going to have a crazy deep lineup for a long time.

[emmett16]

Left Handers rule. 
 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C20zldmOBDV/?igsh=cGNsZTBodmsxMjBh

[Bemorewins]

42 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

To start Opening Day 2024, if there's no more trades and everyone is healthy, then I'm predicting an infield of

1B Mountcastle / O'Hearn / Santander

2B Westburg / Urias 

SS Henderson / Mateo / Westburg 

3B Urias / Henderson / Westburg 

I think Connor Norby has an outside shot at getting an early call and manning 2nd Base. I think he gets an opportunity before Jackson Holliday because he's older and has already spent so much time dominating AAA. But honestly they should do for Norby like they did for Ortiz and trade him to a team that really needs him for some better pitching (I'm thinking relief pitcher.)

Also it doesn't really work for a platoon to have 2 RHB at the same position. So that tidbit gives Jackson a boost in his chances.

I hope considering that we have Burnes for this year only (as of know) we don't approach the rest of the roster with a win later attitude. Holliday is better than Urias and Norby and it's not particularly close (especially offensively). There is no upside/legitimately rational reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for any time this year (regardless of who is older). The best player(s) should play. We are trying to win a World Series not simply have a good/winning record this year. 

[IPlayGM]

59 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

 

With Holliday/Adley/Gunnar at up the middle positions the Orioles are going to have a crazy deep lineup for a long time.

And I would say those should be the top 3 of the order as well

[Bemorewins]

21 hours ago, ChuckS said:

So you are certain Holliday makes the team out of spring training?

I don’t think anyone can be certain without the benefit of a crystal ball. But why wouldn’t he be here to start the season? He is by far one of if not the most talented middle infielders in the org. If we are trying to maximize our potential for 2024 (with Burnes) why would he be left off of the roster?

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I hope considering that we have Burnes for this year only (as of know) we don't approach the rest of the roster with a win later attitude. Holliday is better than Urias and Norby and it's not particularly close (especially offensively). There is no upside/legitimately rational reason to keep him in the Minor Leagues for any time this year (regardless of who is older). The best player(s) should play. We are trying to win a World Series not simply have a good/winning record this year. 

Comparing lower level minor league numbers to Major League or even steady AAA numbers/results isn't exactly apples to apples. Like Mike Elias has said, they want to give Holliday a little more time in AAA because he only had a few weeks there last season. Specifically he said he wanted him to see more left handed pitchers. Urias has been playing at a higher level as a servicable veteran so in the immediate timeframe he's the safer option until the criteria that Elias laid out for Jackson is met. There's a bug difference in the talent levels and competition between leagues. Jackson will be no doubt great, but that also comes with the right development steps. You can't rush greatness. Cowser's cup of coffee proved that.

[wildbillhiccup]

33 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t think anyone can be certain without the benefit of a crystal ball. But why wouldn’t he be here to start the season? He is by far one of if not the most talented middle infielders in the org. If we are trying to maximize our potential for 2024 (with Burnes) why would he be left off of the roster?

If he REALLY struggled in Spring Training? That's the only potential obstacle I see for him making the OD roster. 

[forphase1]

37 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t think anyone can be certain without the benefit of a crystal ball. But why wouldn’t he be here to start the season? He is by far one of if not the most talented middle infielders in the org. If we are trying to maximize our potential for 2024 (with Burnes) why would he be left off of the roster?

Unfortunately talent is only one part of the equation.  Many other factors are going to be in play beyond just talent, whether we like it or not.  Be it service time manipulation, ROY eligibility, super 2 status, not to mention comfort level/ability against MLB pitching, etc.  I know I'm in the minority, but I don't expect to see much Holiday until the 2nd half of the season.  I hope I'm proven wrong, but I don't think so.

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Unfortunately talent is only one part of the equation.  Many other factors are going to be in play beyond just talent, whether we like it or not.  Be it service time manipulation, ROY eligibility, super 2 status, not to mention comfort level/ability against MLB pitching, etc.  I know I'm in the minority, but I don't expect to see much Holiday until the 2nd half of the season.  I hope I'm proven wrong, but I don't think so.

If he’s not here until the second half of the season, something went terribly wrong. You do know that in order for him to win rookie of the year he must play most of the season up here. Also, there will be a tremendous PR hit and damage to the relationship with the player if they try to play games in order to keep him down in the Minor leagues for most of the season. 

Lastly, do you think Norby/Urias is anywhere near his stratosphere as a player?

[Bemorewins]

44 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Comparing lower level minor league numbers to Major League or even steady AAA numbers/results isn't exactly apples to apples. Like Mike Elias has said, they want to give Holliday a little more time in AAA because he only had a few weeks there last season. Specifically he said he wanted him to see more left handed pitchers. Urias has been playing at a higher level as a servicable veteran so in the immediate timeframe he's the safer option until the criteria that Elias laid out for Jackson is met. There's a bug difference in the talent levels and competition between leagues. Jackson will be no doubt great, but that also comes with the right development steps. You can't rush greatness. Cowser's cup of coffee proved that.

1) I never heard Elias say that Jackson Holliday needed more time in AAA. So that’s news to me.

2) IMO - there is no comparison between Holliday and Cowser. Holliday is a generational type talent/player. The ability that it takes to jump 4 levels in a single Minor League season and hit at all those levels is to 1 percent. How many times has that ever been done in the game before? (VERY RARE) I have heard professional evaluators compare him to ARod level rare/special talent. He’s not like everybody else and no disrespect to Cowser, but they are not on the same plane as prospects.

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If he’s not here until the second half of the season, something went terribly wrong. You do know that in order for him to win rookie of the year he must play most of the season up here. Also, there will be a tremendous PR hit and damage to the relationship with the player if they try to play games in order to keep him down in the Minor leagues for most of the season. 

Lastly, do you think Norby/Urias is anywhere near his stratosphere as a player?

I realize how much he must play to win rookie of the year.  Which is why I expect him to challenge for the ROY in 2025, and not in 2024.  I know what has been said by Elias, and I know what most of us here, myself included, WANT to see...Holiday on the OD roster and playing in Baltimore most of the year.  But at this point he has a total of 91 AAA PAs.  I expect to see him be more like Gunner was in 2022, get some MLB time close to the end of the season, and have little enough time in the MLB that he's still a rookie in 2025.  Let me be clear.  I don't WANT any of this to happen.  I am over Mateo/Urias and would LOVE to see both roster spots freed up and Holiday getting consistent playing time from OD on.  With Ortiz being gone I expect both Mateo and Urias to get significant playing time, and I REALLY hate that idea.  So none of this is what I WANT, but rather what I expect to see happen.

Of course I don't think that Norby/Urias is anywhere near his level as a player.  Holiday is a special, special player.  But there are other considerations that will go into play than just talent and level as a player.  As I said, be it service time manipulation, keeping him down long enough so he can challenge for ROY next year, etc etc I see Holiday getting 400-450ish at bats in AAA and then 100-125 in the MLB, similar to Gunnar in 2022.  I hope Elias proves me wrong, but until I see it happen, that's what I'm expecting to be the case.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

I realize how much he must play to win rookie of the year.  Which is why I expect him to challenge for the ROY in 2025, and not in 2024.  I know what has been said by Elias, and I know what most of us here, myself included, WANT to see...Holiday on the OD roster and playing in Baltimore most of the year.  But at this point he has a total of 91 AAA PAs.  I expect to see him be more like Gunner was in 2022, get some MLB time close to the end of the season, and have little enough time in the MLB that he's still a rookie in 2025.  Let me be clear.  I don't WANT any of this to happen.  I am over Mateo/Urias and would LOVE to see both roster spots freed up and Holiday getting consistent playing time from OD on.  With Ortiz being gone I expect both Mateo and Urias to get significant playing time, and I REALLY hate that idea.  So none of this is what I WANT, but rather what I expect to see happen.

Of course I don't think that Norby/Urias is anywhere near his level as a player.  Holiday is a special, special player.  But there are other considerations that will go into play than just talent and level as a player.  As I said, be it service time manipulation, keeping him down long enough so he can challenge for ROY next year, etc etc I see Holiday getting 400-450ish at bats in AAA and then 100-125 in the MLB, similar to Gunnar in 2022.  I hope Elias proves me wrong, but until I see it happen, that's what I'm expecting to be the case.

Holliday was successful in performing at 4 levels in 2023.  I find it hard to believe he will spend much time in AAA before he looks too good for that league.  If he makes his major league debut in June, the O's will gain an extra year of control if Holliday doesn't earn a top 2 finish in ROY.  There's a lot of competition for ROY this year including Evan Carter and Holliday's teammates Kjerstad and maybe even Mayo.  I'm sure Elias would much prefer an extra year of control over Holliday over him winning ROY.  Of course he can never publicly say that.  Some extra seasoning in AAA is easily justified.  The majority of the season in AAA when Holliday will likely be looking like AAA MVP is not.