Is Austin Hays Just an OF Version of Jorge Mateo?

[IPlayGM]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m happy Hays is here. I think he fits a profile the team needs because of the LH hitters in the OF.

However, I think Cowser and Kjerstad should play more than him. 

I think Hays getting 400 or so at bats a year is his best role.  

He either misses a lot of time due to injury or plays large chunks of the season hurt and is awful for long stretches because of it. 

Play him less and maybe the injuries become less of an issue.

That said, he will start everyday for a while and it will be up to him to hit and if he doesn’t, I think that’s when you find him losing time.

Completely agree with this…hope this is the role that he settles into…it will also mean if he does that Cowser is playing well.

[Billy F-Face3]

34 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

There's absolutely nothing in his profile that supports this claim. Austin Hays is a mediocre and/or below average is just about every single hitting category. 

Are you denying that Austin Hays is an All Star? 

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Been here for awhile man.  Tired of seeing Hays swinging from his heels at bad pitches.

 

[sportsfan8703]

40 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Austin Hays is an All Star. Mateo is not.

Hays is one of the best defensive left fielders in baseball. He also happens to be a good hitter.

He really did just miss out on a GG too.  This thread is wild.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Beats the hell out of me, I've been wanting to move on from Hays for awhile now.

Hays isn't good enough to be blocking prospects like Cowser and Kjerstad. There are more than enough at bats to go around to give Cowser a chance to prove his worth. Like other posters have mentioned Hays probably gives you his best value at about 400 at bats per season.

Hays appears to play through when he's been nicked up with injuries the past couple years and his production suffers. The Orioles have the outfield depth to sit Hays when he's dinged up and is going to be more of a liability than an asset.

Edited February 5 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[jamalshw]

I do think Hays eventually loses ABs to Kjerstad and/or Cowser. And he's been a much better first half player than second half player in his career and that was exaggerated last year when he was an All-Star but had a .667 OPS in the second half after a .853 OPS in the first half. 

All that said, Hays is an everyday player while Mateo is not. But both could/should have a place on this roster if nothing else because they're right-handed and can hit lefties. This team is heavily left-handed by design given the wall, but that makes the Orioles susceptible to lefties and while we do have switch hitters in Adley and Santander and we do have guys that hit from the left side and need to be in the lineup regardless of who is on the mound, i do worry we are getting a bit too lefthanded. 

Right now, Hays, Mountcastle and Westburg are the guys we expect in the everyday lineup that hit from the right-side. If we pull Hays out in favor of Cowser, that makes it 2 RHH and two switch hitters to go with 5 exclusively from the left side. 

All that said, I do expect Hays to lose some ABs and am fine with him getting closer to 400 ABs compared to the 500 (or close) he's had the last 3 years. Those extra 100-150 plate appearances can go to Cowser or Kjerstad and that may help prevent or minimize his last season swoon. Hays to me, though, is still more than a bench player or a weak side platoon player. 

I think in the end, between a bit more time off for Hays, the unavoidable injuries that will undoubtedly hit, and the likely regression from O'Hearns. I expect we will be able to find enough ABs for Cowser and Kjerstad this year. And perhaps the duo (alongside the right-handed hitting Mayo) replace Santander, Hays and O'Hearn before this time next year.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I specifically said a "slightly more consistent OF version" of Mateo in my initial post. There's no doubt that Mateo is a more streaky and a less consistent player, but I'm not sure that "solid" is the word I would use to describe Hays' numbers. It would be different if he stole more bases and/or had a better OBP, but he doesn't excel in either of those categories. So you're basically getting a very hollow 16 HRs out of position where I think the bar should be considerably higher. 

My problem with Hays is his .314 career OBP. He improved to .325 this year and upped his career number from .305. He’s a product of the old regime. So unless he improves greatly I’d assume he’d be on his way out in the next season or two.

Mateo is a waiver claim as I recall. He has shit tons of talent and when he’s hot he’s borderline elite. The problem is he’s mostly not been that guy. Early last season and the prior season it looked like the light finally came on. But, after the hot start he wasn’t even AAAA at the plate and his glove was suspect.

[Spy Fox]

26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You realize that mediocre and average are synonyms right? 

I know it can be used that way, though I think most people use it to indicate a level a bit below average. That's how I take it anyway. 

But, taking it to mean average, I was responding to your point that "there's nothing in his profile" to say he's an above average hitter, and that he's average or below in "just about every hitting category." Neither of those is true. Especially since the rankings I posted are among LFers who played enough to qualify-- which makes them an above average group of players overall to have received that much PT. 

I do agree with your larger point about Cowser/Kjerstad taking some ABs from Hays this year. That should happen. And assuming one of those two prospects can solidify themselves as a solid bat, it could be a good move to trade Hays at the deadline or next offseason. 

[Just Regular]

This is an elegant attempt to extract an I believe unprecedented bad reaction from @Frobby.

I do think Mateo and Hays baseball lives make an interesting compare/contrast between Latin American teenagers and American college kids, and I don't think Elias/Sig have yet given up on unlocking another level from Mateo.

[wildbillhiccup]

12 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I know it can be used that way, though I think most people use it to indicate a level a bit below average. That's how I take it anyway. 

But, taking it to mean average, I was responding to your point that "there's nothing in his profile" to say he's an above average hitter, and that he's average or below in "just about every hitting category." Neither of those is true. Especially since the rankings I posted are among LFers who played enough to qualify-- which makes them an above average group of players overall to have received that much PT. 

I do agree with your larger point about Cowser/Kjerstad taking some ABs from Hays this year. That should happen. And assuming one of those two prospects can solidify themselves as a solid bat, it could be a good move to trade Hays at the deadline or next offseason. 

Fair enough. DIdn't mean to come across as snarky. 

[wildbillhiccup]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My problem with Hays is his .314 career OBP. He improved to .325 this year and upped his career number from .305. He’s a product of the old regime. So unless he improves greatly I’d assume he’d be on his way out in the next season or two.

Mateo is a waiver claim as I recall. He has shit tons of talent and when he’s hot he’s borderline elite. The problem is he’s mostly not been that guy. Early last season and the prior season it looked like the light finally came on. But, after the hot start he wasn’t even AAAA at the plate and his glove was suspect.

That's my biggest problem with him as well. And in my humble opinion this is a team that desperately needs another solid OBP guy. Cowser is MUCH more likely to fill that void than Hays. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I would have been fine w/ trading Hays this offseason and signing someone like Hicks as a fallback if Cowser can't cut it.  Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo and Holliday are ready or almost ready and need somewhere to play, and no utility player roles is not where they should be.  Still have Mateo and Urias as utility players too.  I hope there is at least one more trade before OD.

[Sports Guy]

Hays through June:  855 OPS

Hays July 1- August 16: 557 OPS

Hays August 17- end of year: 800 OPS.

His BABiP was like 60 points higher than the last few years.   His xBA was about 35 points lower than his BA.  His slugging was 24 points higher than his xSlug and just overall, his statcast data isn’t that great.

In other words, I think he was lucky last year  (his BABiP through June was 393) and he still only had a 769 OPS.

Edited February 5 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

And what happens if Holliday or Westburg post similar numbers in their first 61 ABs this season? Are we giving up on them like we are with Cowser and settling for medicority over upside? 

Nobody’s giving up on Cowser.  

[Moose Milligan]

48 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Are you denying that Austin Hays is an All Star? 

 

45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He really did just miss out on a GG too.  This thread is wild.  

The two biggest orange kool aid drinkers coming together like Voltron!