Is Austin Hays Just an OF Version of Jorge Mateo?

[Sanity Check]

20 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I personally think you're a little high on Hays (for me), but it would really depend on how Cowser performs.  I also think there's another layer to the conversation and that's how each player reaches those bench marks. If Elias believes in Cowser then I'd like to see him give the kid a vote of confidence and give him an extended look as the starting left fielder at the beginning of the season. Or at an absolute minimum make it an open competion between Hays and Cowser going into Spring Training. And if Cowser wins the job and is still  struggling after 100 - 150 regular ABs then Elias can re-evaluate the Cowser / Hays dynamic. 

I'd also like to see more ABs for Kjerstad, but it's hard to see him eclipsing 250 with players like Santander and Rutschman who are going to eat into the available DH at bats. 

I don't think Hays has done anything to lose his job, or to have it taken away in any significant way.  I agree there will be a competition in Spring Training that might tell us a lot about what we have in Cowser at a higher level, but we need to see it.

How many of us who feel like we're pretty good at what we do (maybe not the best in the world, but do a good job overall).....and would be okay if our boss came to us and said, "you know, you're pretty good at what you do, and you actually perform at a wins above replacement level, but we think this new kid "might" be better, so we're going to give him some of your work....even though, you're pretty good at what you do.  Just sayin'..... 

[BRobinsonfan]

20 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Does it not seem a bit silly to compare their career numbers when one player has 1,793 ABs and the other has 1,032 ABs?

Obviously, I didn't think so, or I wouldn't have posted it. If one player had 1,700 and the other had 450, I think your point would be valid, but they both have over 1,000 At Bats, and that's a sufficient sample size to make the comparison. I also compared their performance over the last two years when Hays had 1,148 PA's and Mateo had 883.    

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Kjerstad isn’t likely getting any LF starts at OPACY anyway.  O’Hearn has to go.  Then Kjerstad could share RF/DH AB’s with Santander and also get some RF starts when Santander gives Mountcastle a day off at 1B.   I figure 70 DH starts and another 50 starts in RF.   Santander gets 110 starts in RF, 30 at DH, and 10 at 1B.  
 

As for Cowser that’s the best I could come up with.  Good chance he starts at Norfolk to work on his approach, cutting down his K’s, and improving his pitch recognition on off speed stuff.  

Agreed O'Hearn has Kjerstad's spot. I guess O'Hearn is good insurance to have, but at Kjerstad's age (he will be 25 next week), he's into his prime now. We really need to figure out if he can anchor the middle of the order and provide the necessary power before we let Santander walk. Those 30 home runs are valuable IMO and need to come from somewhere.

[BRobinsonfan]

19 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

There's absolutely nothing in his profile that supports this claim. Austin Hays is a mediocre and/or below average is just about every single hitting category. 

In 2023 he had an OPS+ of 114 which is solidly above average and a 2.0 oWAR.  I'm not saying that I wouldn't be happy with more production out of LF, but the comparison to Mateo offensively is just a non-starter.   

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I don't think Hays has done anything to lose his job, or to have it taken away in any significant way.  I agree there will be a competition in Spring Training that might tell us a lot about what we have in Cowser at a higher level, but we need to see it.

How many of us who feel like we're pretty good at what we do (maybe not the best in the world, but do a good job overall).....and would be okay if our boss came to us and said, "you know, you're pretty good at what you do, and you actually perform at a wins above replacement level, but we think this new kid "might" be better, so we're going to give him some of your work....even though, you're pretty good at what you do.  Just sayin'..... 

This is my thinking.  I think it makes sense to give Hays a modest trim to get him more rest and occasionally get Cowser some PT in LF vs. RHP.  I see Cowser getting time in all three OF spots.  

[SilentJames]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is my thinking.  I think it makes sense to give Hays a modest trim to get him more rest and occasionally get Cowser some PT in LF vs. RHP.  I see Cowser getting time in all three OF spots.  

agreed. 

[wildbillhiccup]

40 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I don't think Hays has done anything to lose his job, or to have it taken away in any significant way.  I agree there will be a competition in Spring Training that might tell us a lot about what we have in Cowser at a higher level, but we need to see it.

How many of us who feel like we're pretty good at what we do (maybe not the best in the world, but do a good job overall).....and would be okay if our boss came to us and said, "you know, you're pretty good at what you do, and you actually perform at a wins above replacement level, but we think this new kid "might" be better, so we're going to give him some of your work....even though, you're pretty good at what you do.  Just sayin'..... 

It's not about doing anything to lose his job or knock against Hays. It's about commiting to a younger player who has the potential to be better. It's also about Cowser being much more likely to be a part of the future of the team than Hays. 

[jamalshw]

With talk of Cowser possibly getting time at all three OF spots, I hope this is the case. And I hope he proves he can play CF at least well enough to give Mullins the occasional breather and well enough that the Orioles don't feel obligated to carry McKenna on the roster. He seems like a good guy and I wish him the best in his baseball career. I appreciate his role with the club the last few years. 

If that's the case, there's a much clearer path to the Majors and playing time for Cowser. You have the "starting" 9 of (in no order) Mullins, Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Westburg, Henderson, and (eventually/hopefully) Holliday.

I'm in the camp that believes Holliday can earn a spot out of spring. With that, the bench goes to McCann for sure, leaving three spots. Barring no trades, I don't see the Orioles bidding farewell to Urias or Mateo just yet. So that's one leftover spot. Unless Mateo is dubbed the CF backup (which we will see in ST if he gets much look there) or the Orioles feel more comfortable with Hays in CF than I do, the last spot needs to be someone that can play CF. Ideally that's Cowser. And if he plays all 3 OF spots, it's reasonably easy to find him 4-5 starts a week. That, of course, bumps Kjerstad to AAA to start the year. 

All in all...as tough as it is to find ABs for all the good young players, I'm still loving this depth. If anyone (other than Rutschman) goes down, we have an in house option to minimize the impact. Lose a OF? More playing time for Cowser and Kjerstad. Lose a Mountcastle or O'Hearn reverts to pre-2023 form? We have Kjerstad or Mayo to fill those ABs. One of the infielders go down? We have Urias who was a Gold Glover at 3B and guys can move around to cover the other positions. And I didn't even mention Norby who could be an answer in a corner OF spot or 2B with an injury...and what about Stowers? Man, I'm loving this embarrassment of riches.  

 

[Billy F-Face3]

We had this entire conversation in rhe middle of last year when so many people like Sport Guy were clamoring for Cowser to be called up. I cautioned it then, and I was right. I caution this same logic now.

You don't bench a productive veteran just because you have some opinion about a prospect (who has not done anything) having a higher potential ceiling. The most productive players earn their playing time and help the team to win, and that's who plays.

Let Cowser earn his spot on the 26 man roster. Then let him earn his spot in the lineup. He can start in spring training by performing better than his main competition right now, which is Kjerstad.

Hays is the starting left fielder for a 101 win AL East Championship team until someone can prove they're more productive for that team.

And people forget that Hays was one of our top most consistent hitters for a large stretch of the season, from batting over .300 for more than half the season.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

We had this entire conversation in rhe middle of last year when so many people like Sport Guy were clamoring for Cowser to be called up. I cautioned it then, and I was right. I caution this same logic now.

You don't bench a productive veteran just because you have some opinion about a prospect (who has not done anything) having a higher potential ceiling. The most productive players earn their playing time and help the team to win, and that's who plays.

Let Cowser earn his spot on the 26 man roster. Then let him earn his spot in the lineup. He can start in spring training by performing better than his main competition right now, which is Kjerstad.

Hays is the starting left fielder for a 101 win AL East Championship team until someone can prove they're more productive for that team.

And people forget that Hays was one of our top most consistent hitters for a large stretch of the season, from batting over .300 for more than half the season.

I like this post but I’m not sure I’d say Hays was “one of our top most consistent hitters.”   He had a stretch of nearly two months where he was awful.  At the end of the day, you look at the overall season, not how he did in part A, B or C.   His overall season was a good one, not a great one.  But good enough where you don’t just bench him for a rookie on opening day.  

[Billy F-Face3]

Also, the people who run Baseball agree that Hays' is valuable...

 

[Sanity Check]

6 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

We had this entire conversation in rhe middle of last year when so many people like Sport Guy were clamoring for Cowser to be called up. I cautioned it then, and I was right. I caution this same logic now.

You don't bench a productive veteran just because you have some opinion about a prospect (who has not done anything) having a higher potential ceiling. The most productive players earn their playing time and help the team to win, and that's who plays.

Let Cowser earn his spot on the 26 man roster. Then let him earn his spot in the lineup. He can start in spring training by performing better than his main competition right now, which is Kjerstad.

Hays is the starting left fielder for a 101 win AL East Championship team until someone can prove they're more productive for that team.

And people forget that Hays was one of our top most consistent hitters for a large stretch of the season, from batting over .300 for more than half the season.

Bingo, despite the fact that some people just like shiny new toys who "might" perform better, even when no one really knows for sure.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Also, the people who run Baseball agree that Hays' is valuable...

 

Slightly surprised he won, but it was a close case.  The O’s should have settled it.  

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Slightly surprised he won, but it was a close case.  The O’s should have settled it.  

Especially on an All Star year for Hays. Glad he won. Probably makes it less of an aggravating process in the end. 

[Frobby]

So now it’s Mullins $6.325 mm, Hays $6.300 mm.