Is the rotation just back to square 1 with Burnes replacing Bradish's WAR?

[interloper]

I think this is the thing that is occupying my brain the most about the recent injury news.

Burnes 2023 rWAR: 3.5 (4 in 2022, 5.3 in 2021)
Bradish 2023 rWAR: 4.9

Let's assume 2 things for the moment: 1) Bradish doesn't return or if he does, he's not very effective, and 2) that one of Wells or Irvin can adequately replicate what Means would give you. 

It just feels like the rotation is back to where it started at the beginning of the offseason. There really isn't any actual improvement, right? Of course it's fantastic that Burnes is here to effectively replace Bradish because if he wasn't we'd be in some real trouble. 

But - without some other addition(s), it's hard to feel like there has been any improvement to the pitching staff whatsoever. The whole idea of Burnes was to effectively have two aces up front, and Grayson an upside-y #3. Now Grayson has enormous pressure to perform Bradish's role, with Kremer completely miscast as a #3 on what is supposed to be a World Series-caliber team. 

If Elias does not add someone like Lorenzen at an absolute minimum, it reads as a pretty big failure to me. He has to make at least one rotation addition, and ideally a bullpen move as well. 

Edited February 16 by interloper

[Guest]

Kinda feels that way, but Lorenzen or Ryu seemed like a good add even with Bradish healthy. I think you could also argue it’s worse off because of the loss to the pen/5th starter potential from trading Hall

Now it feels more necessary to add someone significant 

 

Edited February 16 by brooooksy

[Frobby]

Well, I am not as pessimistic as you regarding the likelihood that Bradish will return and be effective.  But assuming he doesn’t, then yes, we might not be any better off than last year, and possibly not as good.  There are some variables though:

1.  Burnes is likely to throw 25-30 more innings than Bradish threw last year.

2.  Grayson hopefully will be effective all year, not just for half the season.  

3.  We’ll see about Means.   

4.  At present we’re very vulnerable to any further rotation injuries.   
 

 

[Guest]

The short answer is yes. I'd rather not give up the farm for Luzardo. Ryu is intriguing, Bauer is worth a flier, makes me re-think whether we should have kept Gibson.

[Too Tall]

I think your thesis is correct. We definitely need to add a backend bull pen piece (needed that before yesterday's news IMHO) and another middle or better starter. We may get lucky with in house options, but I wouldn't bet the season on that right now.

[Sports Guy]

I think we are a little better than last year because Burnes is better than Bradish and 2024 GRod should be better than 2023 GRod.

But adding Burnes was also a big help in covering up some other issues, namely the bullpen.

So, you could argue that we are worse overall depending on what happens there.

I felt we needed to add 2 starters this offseason. That need is even greater right now than it was. 

[Guest]

A few of you are answering is the team in a better place than last year when the question is about having Bradish and Hall gone is made up for by Burnes. I’d say that’s pretty close and maybe a slight loss.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

A few of you are answering is the team in a better place than last year when the question is about having Bradish and Hall gone is made up for by Burnes. I’d say that’s pretty close and maybe a slight loss.

I don’t see Hall even mentioned in the OP.  So, I’d say the question is open to interpretation.  

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see Hall even mentioned in the OP.  So, I’d say the question is open to interpretation.  

He was part of the Burnes acquisition. We had Grayson either way

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

He was part of the Burnes acquisition. We had Grayson either way

I’m just saying, your post comes off as though the majority of posters didn’t understand the question.  I’m saying the question can be interpreted more than one way.   

[Ripken]

More or less.  Beyond that, I was concerned about the bullpen before the Burnes trade.  Now, Hall is gone (which, hey, great trade... but Hall is gone) and there's a greater chance that Irvin and/or Wells are starting.  So, since the trade, that's 2-3 more guys out of the pen, before mentioning the enormous role Felix played last year.  They did add Kimbrel but he doesn't inspire much confidence in me.  Suffice it to say, I am very much worried about the bullpen now.

Edited February 16 by Ripken

[Spy Fox]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think we are a little better than last year because Burnes is better than Bradish and 2024 GRod should be better than 2023 GRod.

But adding Burnes was also a big help in covering up some other issues, namely the bullpen.

So, you could argue that we are worse overall depending on what happens there.

I felt we needed to add 2 starters this offseason. That need is even greater right now than it was. 

I agree with this. Even though Bradish was maybe better last year, healthy Burnes is a safer bet to be great this year than healthy Bradish. 

I also think Wells/Irvin are fine as starters. If you told me Bradish/Means were going to be out all year, but Burnes/GRod/Kremer/Wells/Irvin would all be fully healthy and throw 30 starts, I'd think that rotation was going to be pretty solid. 

The issues now are 1) those five won't all throw 30 starts, and while Bradish/Means are out, our 6th/7th options are huge question marks. 2) the bullpen was going to be really helped by Irvin/Wells' presence, and I don't love throwing, say, Akin/Baker into those roles. 

[interloper]

It's just wild that there's a chance we are worse now. And for that to be the case after adding Burnes and Kimbrel. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

It's just wild that there's a chance we are worse now. And for that to be the case after adding Burnes and Kimbrel. 

I'm not at all excited about adding Kimbrel, I think he's mostly a name at this point.

[sportsfan8703]

2023 -> 2024

Bautista -> Kimbrel

Bradish -> Burnes

Wells and Irvin -> Wells and Irvin