Austin Hays 2024

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But it’s absolutely what you are implying.

No it effing isn't!   I said it's human nature not to want to change what's been working.   I absolutely did not say it shouldn't or couldn't be questioned.   Totally different thing.

Now, as you know, I do tend to think that the people who run this organization know what they are doing and generally know a lot more about baseball than the people who post here, me included.  So, I find the know it all attitude of many posts annoying.  But I certainly don't think management decisions are beyond question (generally, and including in this instance).

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

24 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

He also had a few periods where he was "unavailable" for a bit but didn't go on the IL.  Let's call that 7 games - I think that's a bit light but just gets to a round number of 155.  That gets us to 87%.  So basically, 9 out of 10 games he's in the lineup.  That's too much IMO.

I think SG said it perfectly.  I like Hays a lot and am glad he's on this team, but I do think the team thinks he's something that he's not, IMO.

I think the sweet spot for Hays is around 450 at bats with his tendency to get nicked up during the season. The Orioles have the necessary depth to rest Hays when needed and not see much of a drop off (or perhaps no drop off) in production.

[btdart20]

41 minutes ago, now said:

Interesting. It kind of makes sense, 30-35 games being roughly 20 percent of the season. A variant of the 80/20 principle? Let's check it out with some recent samples:

2023: 30g 20-10, 35g 22-13. Proj./actual wins 108/102//101
2022: 30g 13-17, 35g 14-21. Proj./actual wins 70/65//83
2005: 30g 20-10, 35g 22-13. Proj./actual wins 108/102//74

Funny, I just picked 2005 since it stuck in my memory as a momentous disappointment. The 30/35g totals happened to coincide exactly with 2023--which otherwise appeared to be a pretty good fit with the final win total of 101. 2005's final 74 wins, not so much!

So while it's tempting to go with the 20 percent sample size, it's probably not such a good idea (pending a larger data query of many other seasons).

A statistically meaningful sample size 10%.  If you have a really big population, you can shoot for 5%.  

[interloper]

Seems a touch early for this amount of Hays vitriol, no? 

[now]

38 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

A statistically meaningful sample size 10%.  If you have a really big population, you can shoot for 5%.  

In this case I would take that to mean, say, using 10% of the Orioles' 70 seasons, rather than the first 10% of any given season!

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, now said:

In this case I would take that to mean, say, using 10% of the Orioles' 70 seasons, rather than the first 10% of any given season!

Correct, 10% of 70 seasons is better than 4%.  But his 20% is a better sample size than either.  (And of course, variables like injuries/PEDs in 2005 and late ROY candidates in 2022 matter.  And lies, damn lies, and stats is a thing too.)

[Natty]

Hays since the All-Star break...

.222 BA .286 OBP. 

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Natty said:

Hays since the All-Star break...

.222 BA .286 OBP. 

Are you predicting that's what he'll hit this season?   I'll take the over.

[deward]

22 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

Cowser can play CF. Nobody would want him to for an extended period. And I don't get the impression that ME thinks Kjerstad or Mayo are ready for a permanent promotion right now. Either way, this situation will resolve itself in due time, and we'll win a ton of games along the way. 

Cowser won't contend for any gold gloves in CF, but a team could definitely live with him out there every day. 

[Natty]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Are you predicting that's what he'll hit this season?   I'll take the over.

Well he does have a .261 lifetime BA going for him. 

[ShoelesJoe]

Another Oh-Fer day for Hays w/2 Ks, now batting .111 / .238 / .111 early in the season. He's basically been Ryan McKenna for the last 100 games, which begs the question as to how long Hyde can continue to write him in the lineup almost every night when Stowers, Norby, and Kjerstad are crushing it in AAA. Of course, none of them have Hays' glove, but defense will only go so far for a guy putting up a .600 OPS. 

Edited April 4 by ShoelesJoe

[EddeeEddee]

8 hours ago, deward said:

Cowser won't contend for any gold gloves in CF, but a team could definitely live with him out there every day. 

I doubt Hyde starts Cowser against any lefties anytime soon.

[yark14]

For a one-syllable name, Hays is really hard for people to spell. 

The disrespect clearly is weighing on him

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Are you predicting that's what he'll hit this season?   I'll take the over.

No, but that's covering a significant amount of at bats by this point. Now clearly I think he's hit better than that, but I do think he'll start to lose playing time if he doesn't pick it up by the beginning of May.

[Orioles0615]

Since the all star break last year Hays is hitting .232 and has a.692 OPS.