Austin Hays 2024

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Orioles0615 said:

Since the all star break last year Hays is hitting .232 and has a.692 OPS.

That's not far off what he is, a low 700's OPS, good defensive corner outfielder with below average power.  I've been a Hays fan, but he has his limitations.  There is no way the O's are paying him $9 mill or whatever he will make in last year of arbitration.

[Filmstudy]

There is a confluence of circumstance right now that should make the Orioles close to a decision on Hays (as well as Mateo's future in the outfield)

1. The club has not been hitting the last 4 games and the overall lack of offense is frustrating despite 2 nice comebacks

2. Cowser is hitting well in very limited opportunities (despite the key whiff on Wed night)

3. The entire prospect-laden top 5 of the Norfolk lineup is plastering the ball in a collective middle finger to the demotions

4. Hays himself is not hitting and hasn't since the middle of last season

Yes, the club has limited options and a big sunk cost in Hays but I think one choice is to start treating him like Roenicke relative to Lowenstein.  When those 2 were the LF platoon for the 1979-83 Orioles, that meant Roenicke always started against a LHP and occasionally vs a RHP and Lowenstein (almost) never batted against a LHP.  When Lowenstein started, that often meant Roenicke entered and finished games and had more ABs because Roenicke could continue vs a RHP.  Over those 5 seasons:

Roenicke: 1897 PA, .819 OPS (126 OPS+)

Lowenstein: 1426 PA, .866 OPS (139 OPS+)

If Hays and Cowser had the same relationship this season, I'd be cool with it, even though the less potent hitter was getting more ABs, because I think it would give Cowser the best chance for success vs ML pitching and Hays could hopefully add some defensive value to mitigate the value difference. 

One important addition.  I don't really give a FF about Hays "reverse splits" over any recent period of time because 1) he's 107 OPS+ vs LHP career and 97 OPS+ vs RHP and 2) He's not a good enough hitter to give a damn about what his splits are with the other options the Orioles have. 

The tipping point for me is the fact that 3 additional prospects (Norby, Kjerstad, and Stowers) are being held up by Hays and the current handling of that (non-) platoon.

Yes, it's a great problem to have, but IMO the Orioles need to make a commitment to a different split of playing time within the next few weeks.

Edited April 4 by Filmstudy

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Filmstudy said:

There is a confluence of circumstance right now that should make the Orioles close to a decision on Hays (as well as Mateo's future in the outfield)

1. The club has not been hitting the last 4 games and the overall lack of offense is frustrating despite 2 nice comebacks

2. Cowser is hitting well in very limited opportunities (despite the key whiff on Wed night)

3. The entire prospect-laden top 5 of the Norfolk lineup is plastering the ball in a collective middle finger to the demotions

4. Hays himself is not hitting and hasn't since the middle of last season

Yes, the club has limited options and a big sunk cost in Hays but I think one choice is to start treating him like Roenicke relative to Lowenstein.  When those 2 were the LF platoon for the 1979-83 Orioles, that meant Roenicke always started against a LHP and occasionally vs a RHP and Lowenstein (almost) never batted against a LHP.  When Lowenstein started, that often meant Roenicke entered and finished games and had more ABs because Roenicke could continue vs a RHP.  Over those 5 seasons:

Roenicke: 1897 PA, .819 OPS (126 OPS+)

Lowenstein: 1426 PA, .866 OPS (139 OPS+)

If Hays and Cowser had the same relationship this season, I'd be cool with it, even though the less potent hitter was getting more ABs, because I think it would give Cowser the best chance for success vs ML pitching and Hays could hopefully add some defensive value to mitigate the value difference. 

One important addition.  I don't really give a FF about Hays "reverse splits" over any recent period of time because 1) he's 107 OPS+ vs LHP career and 97 OPS+ vs RHP and 2) He's not a good enough hitter to give a damn about what his splits are with the other options the Orioles have. 

The tipping point for me is the fact that 3 additional prospects (Norby, Kjerstad, and Stowers) are being held up by Hays and the current handling of that (non-) platoon.

Yes, it's a great problem to have, but IMO the Orioles need to make a commitment to a different split of playing time within the next few weeks.

Norby, Kjerstad, and Stowers are blocked by other players, notably O'Hearn and Santander.  Most of this should have been handled in the offseason and now it's a cluster fk. It's like Elias knows how to build the #1 farm system chock full of future middle of the order hitters but does not know how to believe in their ability to perform.  He has to sign freaking Tony Kemp as a barrier against the prospects failing along with keeping Mateo, Urias, and extending O'Hearn.

[RVAOsFan]

I think Hays is probably putting too much pressure on himself, worried about being pushed out by the younger prospects.  He made some public statements in the offseason looking for an extension and didn't get one.  His future role here is probably not going to be an everyday player, a platoon with Cowser seems like a good option for now. 

[interloper]

The Hays platoon will eventually materialize. It's been 6 games and he's had plenty of 6 game stretches like this I'm sure. 

[ChuckS]

Tough to imagine Hays playing time reduced much until we get to the 50-game mark.  Expecting a quick move to a platoon role is wishful thinking and not in line with how the management has operated over the last few years. 

I am not sure how much the second half of last season is being taken into account. He has traditionally struggled in the second half of seasons and we know they LOVE his defense in LF in the new Camden Yards. 

Edited April 4 by ChuckS

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

That's not far off what he is, a low 700's OPS, good defensive corner outfielder with below average power.  I've been a Hays fan, but he has his limitations.  There is no way the O's are paying him $9 mill or whatever he will make in last year of arbitration.

In a world where Craig Kimbrel makes $13 million a year, we will definitely pay Austin Hays $9 million next year.  

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

In a world where Craig Kimbrel makes $13 million a year, we will definitely pay Austin Hays $9 million next year.  

If we had had a legitimate option for closer in house for 1M it’s questionable if they would have signed Kimbrel.    If the Orioles are comfortable that they can fill LF and RF with some combination of Cowser/Kjerstad/Mayo/Norby/Stowers/Burdick then it’s sayonara Austin Hays.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

In a world where Craig Kimbrel makes $13 million a year, we will definitely pay Austin Hays $9 million next year.  

Hey now Kimbrel is a proven closer, how else are the O's going to nail down those one run leads in the 9th?

He's also tied for the team lead in Wins.

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If we had had a legitimate option for closer in house for 1M it’s questionable if they would have signed Kimbrel.    If the Orioles are comfortable that they can fill LF and RF with some combination of Cowser/Kjerstad/Mayo/Norby/Stowers/Burdick then it’s sayonara Austin Hays.

Cowser will replace Santa.  I could see Stowers being eased into the lineup in the same way Cowser is being eased in currently.  However, I think we will just let Hays play out his contract similar to what we're doing with Santa this year.  He's worth more to us than what we would get back in a trade.  

Also, isn't it risk adverse to just let Hays play his deal out.  It removes the unknown for a 100 win team.  Now Mullins might be a different story, but will EBJ be ready next OD?  

Edited April 4 by sportsfan8703

[RZNJ]

The more Hays slumps the more at bats he’s going to lose to Cowser.  Same dynamic as Mountcastle and O’Hearn last year.  Cowser needs to take the ball and run.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Cowser will replace Santa.  I could see Stowers being eased into the lineup in the same way Cowser is being eased in currently.  However, I think we will just let Hays play out his contract similar to what we're doing with Santa this year.  He's worth more to us than what we would get back in a trade.  

Also, isn't it risk adverse to just let Hays play his deal out.  It removes the unknown for a 100 win team.  Now Mullins might be a different story, but will EBJ be ready next OD?  

Why can’t Cowser replace Hays and Kjerstad replace Santander?   I also wouldn’t be surprised if Mayo enters the corner outfield picture.  Norby has been playin OF and no games in the infield.  Then there’s Stowers.  Are they going to trade all of those guys or trade/non tender Hays?

 

[TopGunnar]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hey now Kimbrel is a proven closer, how else are the O's going to nail down those one run leads in the 9th?

He's also tied for the team lead in Wins.

lol..seeing a W next to the closers name is always bittersweet

[Safelykept]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Norby, Kjerstad, and Stowers are blocked by other players, notably O'Hearn and Santander.  Most of this should have been handled in the offseason and now it's a cluster fk. It's like Elias knows how to build the #1 farm system chock full of future middle of the order hitters but does not know how to believe in their ability to perform.  He has to sign freaking Tony Kemp as a barrier against the prospects failing along with keeping Mateo, Urias, and extending O'Hearn.

How are any of these 3 blocked by Ohearn or Santander. Norby is RH bat and where does he play, I wont even talk about Stowers and Kjerstad is blocked By Ohearn if he could play first base he cant. and you forgetting what Ohearn did for this team last year, You would actually replace Santander with ant one these 3, what you talking about

 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

How are any of these 3 blocked by Ohearn or Santander. Norby is RH bat and where does he play, I wont even talk about Stowers and Kjerstad is blocked By Ohearn if he could play first base he cant. and you forgetting what Ohearn did for this team last year, You would actually replace Santander with ant one these 3, what you talking about

 

Many players are blocking Norby, Stowers, and Kjerstad.  Even moving Hays off the team will free up room for at most 1 of them.