Austin Hays 2024

[waroriole]

19 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

Of those 3 players, only one has a platoon mate that I care about, and that's Cowser for Hays. O'Hearn is just RH Mountcastle-lite, and I'm not sure who Ced's backup is to be completely honest now that McKenna is gone. So who is on the roster that you're advocating for? Or is that the real question?

They're in a tough spot with Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, and O'Hearn. None are all that great (though all can go on white hot streaks), and none are near bad enough to just cut bait. Doesn't seem like any of them would bring a lot back in a trade, and I'm not really sure who would replace any of them at this exact moment. 

Cowser can play CF too. Also, we could have Kjerstad/Mayo up to push for ABs at 1B/DH. 

[G54377]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well the most logical odd man out would be OHearn.

That being said, no one has to be an odd man out. You just need to stop treating these guys like they should play everyday.

The Os have one player who is an everyday guy…Gunnar.  That’s it.

 

There are only so many at bats to go around. So in essence, there IS an odd man out. Or potentially more than one. You don't have a young talent like Cowser and sit him on the bench indefinitely as a 4th OF.

Once Holliday (and the others) are up, that problem is only compounded. O'Hearn would be the odd man out, but I think we kind of know his days are numbered. Even if it's just 2024. He's a FA after this year (I think?) and there's no way we are extending him.

[TopGunnar]

Hays deserves more than a 4 game March sample size. I just hope he starts hitting like he has at times in the past 

[Too Tall]

I'm surprised someone hasn't correlated Hays slow start to being hit in the shoulder late in spring training and assume he's being allowed to play hurt.  Four games into the season (3-1) and yet let's shake up the team. Hays is not the only one off to a slow start. Talk about small sample size. Or absolutely no patience. 

Someone (I forget) said a number of years ago that it takes about 30 to 35 games to see what kind of team you have. Hays wiil be fine and by then we'll have a better framework off which to relax or panic.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Yes, I know, how dare we question anything. They won 101 last year. 

Not at all what I said.  

[Sanfran327]

13 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Cowser can play CF too. Also, we could have Kjerstad/Mayo up to push for ABs at 1B/DH. 

Cowser can play CF. Nobody would want him to for an extended period. And I don't get the impression that ME thinks Kjerstad or Mayo are ready for a permanent promotion right now. Either way, this situation will resolve itself in due time, and we'll win a ton of games along the way. 

[waroriole]

Just now, Sanfran327 said:

Cowser can play CF. Nobody would want him to for an extended period. And I don't get the impression that ME thinks Kjerstad or Mayo are ready for a permanent promotion right now. Either way, this situation will resolve itself in due time, and we'll win a ton of games along the way. 

We’re not talking about an extended period. We’re talking about once a week. 
 

Didn’t he put Kjerstad on the playoff roster last year? But he’s not ready for KC at home? And if he doesn’t think Mayo is ready, then I’m not sure what he’s watching. 

[EdwinRip]

I don’t understand why some correlate reducing the playing time for Hays to giving up on him.  He can sit out a few games every week and put together a nice season.  Again, he never was a superstar….he’s been a solid regular the last few years that should get around 400 at bats to maximize his talent and the talent around him.

[Fiver6565]

17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

We’re not talking about an extended period. We’re talking about once a week. 
 

Didn’t he put Kjerstad on the playoff roster last year? But he’s not ready for KC at home? And if he doesn’t think Mayo is ready, then I’m not sure what he’s watching. 

He's watching Mayo try to play third base.  Its not just about the bat.

[now]

31 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Someone (I forget) said a number of years ago that it takes about 30 to 35 games to see what kind of team you have. 

Interesting. It kind of makes sense, 30-35 games being roughly 20 percent of the season. A variant of the 80/20 principle? Let's check it out with some recent samples:

2023: 30g 20-10, 35g 22-13. Proj./actual wins 108/102//101
2022: 30g 13-17, 35g 14-21. Proj./actual wins 70/65//83
2005: 30g 20-10, 35g 22-13. Proj./actual wins 108/102//74

Funny, I just picked 2005 since it stuck in my memory as a momentous disappointment. The 30/35g totals happened to coincide exactly with 2023--which otherwise appeared to be a pretty good fit with the final win total of 101. 2005's final 74 wins, not so much!

So while it's tempting to go with the 20 percent sample size, it's probably not such a good idea (pending a larger data query of many other seasons).

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

How literal are you being about “everyday guy?”   Hays started 135 games last year.  That’s about 83%.   You have 3 outfielders doing that, it leaves 50% for somebody else.   Honestly that sounds pretty reasonable to me.   Start there and tweak a little depending on circumstances.  

He also had a few periods where he was "unavailable" for a bit but didn't go on the IL.  Let's call that 7 games - I think that's a bit light but just gets to a round number of 155.  That gets us to 87%.  So basically, 9 out of 10 games he's in the lineup.  That's too much IMO.

I think SG said it perfectly.  I like Hays a lot and am glad he's on this team, but I do think the team thinks he's something that he's not, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Not at all what I said.  

But it’s absolutely what you are implying.

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But it’s absolutely what you are implying.

It’s been said and implied by many here this off-season. Whether it was explicitly said, a lot of the reactions to reasonable questions have been to reference 101 wins 

[.500_OR_BETTER]

Will we see the 2023 Austin Hays return? Who knows... Right now, it does not look like it. He can't hit off-speed / breaking pitches right now and is not squaring up fastballs.

While Hays should be the starter he should be on very thin ice with our young OF depth.   

At some point we are going to have to make moves but for now I guess we just wait and see how this all plays out..

[waroriole]

50 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

He's watching Mayo try to play third base.  Its not just about the bat.

Can’t we just be honest and say he’s waiting until service time works in the team’s favor, but when it’s not obvious that’s what he’s doing?