Brandon Hyde 2024

[Warehouse]

Old school “book” said save for closer until you take the lead in extras when on road.  New school “book” says use closer as soon as there is a walk-off scenario in a tie game.  The rationale is that a tie game is higher leverage than a 1-run lead and you may have a lead when the 10th inning comes around.

The problem in this scenario is that it wasn’t a choice between having Seranthony pitch the 9th and Cano pitch the 10th or vice versa.  It was either have Cano pitch the 9th or pull him from the game.  And, other than Seranthony being a little better at striking out lefties, there isn’t a huge gap in talent between the pitchers.  We needed 6 outs to win and we were better off having Cano pitch 3 of the outs even if that meant he was put in an ever so slightly higher leverage scenario than Dominguez.

Pulling Cano was a mistake. Hyde made it because he was following the “book” but failed to factor in nuances specific to the situation.

I can’t really blame him for pitching to O’Neil. Obviously, you walk him if Holliday makes the preceding play.  It’s not idea to walk the bases loaded there and put the winning run on 2nd - it was really pick your poison.

[Sports Guy]

Overall, Hyde is fine. I like him as the manager and I generally think people completely overrate what a manager is and does in today’s game. Most managers have the same in game strategies. The team is winning the last 3 seasons under him and he has pressed a lot of buttons correctly with pinch hitters this season.

That said, the pitcher usage can be odd at times. Cano for 2 pitches last night is definitely head scratching. Now, that doesn’t mean we win or anything but I think it at least it increases your chances of winning.

But they lost last night because of how much they expanded the zone.

They could have scored way more runs in this series but they kept letting opportunities go by. One thing I noticed, especially with someone like OHearn, is almost as if they were trying to guide the ball to the monster. It’s an inviting target and wonder if they sometimes gets in their heads.

[LGOrioles]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Overall, Hyde is fine. I like him as the manager and I generally think people completely overrate what a manager is and does in today’s game. Most managers have the same in game strategies. The team is winning the last 3 seasons under him and he has pressed a lot of buttons correctly with pinch hitters this season.

That said, the pitcher usage can be odd at times. Cano for 2 pitches last night is definitely head scratching. Now, that doesn’t mean we win or anything but I think it at least it increases your chances of winning.

But they lost last night because of how much they expanded the zone.

They could have scored way more runs in this series but they kept letting opportunities go by. One thing I noticed, especially with someone like OHearn, is almost as if they were trying to guide the ball to the monster. It’s an inviting target and wonder if they sometimes gets in their heads.

Specifically on O’Hearn, you can see how frustrated he is right now. Felt like he slammed his bat down multiple times in this series. They’re pressing big time. 

[Aristotelian]

40 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Specifically on O’Hearn, you can see how frustrated he is right now. Felt like he slammed his bat down multiple times in this series. They’re pressing big time. 

O'Hearn definitely has a temper and is in his own head right now. He needs to be hitting 7th when he is in the lineup til he gets it together. 

[bpilktree67]

27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

O'Hearn definitely has a temper and is in his own head right now. He needs to be hitting 7th when he is in the lineup til he gets it together. 

Yeah but you can’t hit everyone at the bottom of the order.  You have 3 guys hitting, then Adley, O’Hearn, Cowser, Holiday, Slater/Jiminez, Rivera or Mayo.  Who are you moving up to hit 4-6.  None of those guys warrant batting in middle of the order.  O’Hearn at least strikes out less than the other ones. 

[maybenxtyr]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

O'Hearn definitely has a temper and is in his own head right now. He needs to be hitting 7th when he is in the lineup til he gets it together. 

O'Hearn is the definition of a player being miscast at the moment. He's a perfectly acceptable match up player...everyday player, not so much. 

[bpilktree67]

10 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

O’Neil is batting .317 / .432 / .733 vs LH pitchers this season. There is no way in hell you let him bat against Akin in the 10th inning with a base open. Even if the intentional walk puts the go ahead run at 2nd you cannot let him swing the bat. 
 

No Way.

No How.

Not in this lifetime. 
 

The fact that Hyde let Akin pitch to O’Neil in extra innings in the middle of a pennant race is a borderline firing offense. It’s an Ubaldo over Britton level of incompetence. 

You don’t put the winning run in scoring position especially with a guy on third already and less then two outs.  Yoshida Isn’t great against lefties but he also runs well and never strikes out.  He is striking out at 11% of the time vs lefties.  He is going to put the ball in play with a drawn in infield or if you stay back he not a guy that gets doubled up so that is a worse situation.  O’Neil also isn’t fastest guy so your hoping he hits it at someone.  
If Holliday makes the play you walk him but once he did you can’t walk him.  

[ShoelesJoe]

6 hours ago, Safelykept said:

You dont walk the winning run to second. Holliday mucked it, it's not on Hyde.

You do if that’s the smart play at that time. Yes, Holliday’s error put them in that spot but that’s no excuse to stop thinking and strategizing for the rest of the inning. Every choice had a possible bad outcome, but the worst possible bad outcome was more likely with O’Neil batting against Akin, no matter what runners are on what bases. In that situation you treat him like Aaron Judge because statistically he is Aaron Judge vs LH pitchers. 

Edited Thursday at 13:51 by ShoelesJoe

[Safelykept]

27 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

You don’t put the winning run in scoring position especially with a guy on third already and less then two outs.  Yoshida Isn’t great against lefties but he also runs well and never strikes out.  He is striking out at 11% of the time vs lefties.  He is going to put the ball in play with a drawn in infield or if you stay back he not a guy that gets doubled up so that is a worse situation.  O’Neil also isn’t fastest guy so your hoping he hits it at someone.  
If Holliday makes the play you walk him but once he did you can’t walk him.  

Not to mention the possibility of a walk. I'm watching the game 50 years, dont recall many if any managers going in nthat direction.

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

You don’t put the winning run in scoring position especially with a guy on third already and less then two outs.  Yoshida Isn’t great against lefties but he also runs well and never strikes out.  He is striking out at 11% of the time vs lefties.  He is going to put the ball in play with a drawn in infield or if you stay back he not a guy that gets doubled up so that is a worse situation.  O’Neil also isn’t fastest guy so your hoping he hits it at someone.  
If Holliday makes the play you walk him but once he did you can’t walk him.  

• Tyler O'Neill against lefties: 322 AVG, 760 SLG, 1.200 OPS
• Yoshida against lefties: 200, 306, 592

O'Neill has average sprint speed, and Yoshida is a below average runner. 

Honestly, if you have runners at the corners and 1 out, there isn't much difference with the bases juiced and 1 out up by 1. So, it should only come down to a decision of whether you want to play with the infield in or play at double play depth. It's still unbelievable that they had Akin pitch to O'Neill. Not just because O'Neill is having a dominant season against lefties, but because Akin has a 2 cent head when runners are on base and in high leverage situations.

Everything was against Akin w/ O'Neill batting. You can pick your poison with Yoshida. If they PH and put in Refsnyder, then you can go to a different arm. Either way, there's a high run expectancy for that runner on 3rd with 1 out, not so much for the runner on 2nd.

It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to have Akin pitch to O'Neill. I don't care if the winning run is on second. 

[Safelykept]

21 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

• Tyler O'Neill against lefties: 322 AVG, 760 SLG, 1.200 OPS
• Yoshida against lefties: 200, 306, 592

O'Neill has average sprint speed, and Yoshida is a below average runner. 

Honestly, if you have runners at the corners and 1 out, there isn't much difference with the bases juiced and 1 out up by 1. So, it should only come down to a decision of whether you want to play with the infield in or play at double play depth. It's still unbelievable that they had Akin pitch to O'Neill. Not just because O'Neill is having a dominant season against lefties, but because Akin has a 2 cent head when runners are on base and in high leverage situations.

Everything was against Akin w/ O'Neill batting. You can pick your poison with Yoshida. If they PH and put in Refsnyder, then you can go to a different arm. Either way, there's a high run expectancy for that runner on 3rd with 1 out, not so much for the runner on 2nd.

It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to have Akin pitch to O'Neill. I don't care if the winning run is on second. 

What different arm? Kimbrel or one of the two Waiver claims ( Smith, Bowman ). You really expect those guys to control the strike zone with bases loaded? How come there was only one out?

[Aristotelian]

17 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

What different arm? Kimbrel or one of the two Waiver claims ( Smith, Bowman ). You really expect those guys to control the strike zone with bases loaded? How come there was only one out?

Yeah, the game was in all likelihood lost as soon as Holliday booted that ball. I didn't like Akin pitching to O'Neil, but I also don't like Akin or anyone else left in our pen with bases loaded/1 out. IMO, the decision that is really on Hyde was pulling Cano after two pitches. If he pitches the 9th then you still have your closer for a save situation, or start with Akin and bring in Seranthony for a RHB if things get dicey. 

[bpilktree67]

22 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

• Tyler O'Neill against lefties: 322 AVG, 760 SLG, 1.200 OPS
• Yoshida against lefties: 200, 306, 592

O'Neill has average sprint speed, and Yoshida is a below average runner. 

Honestly, if you have runners at the corners and 1 out, there isn't much difference with the bases juiced and 1 out up by 1. So, it should only come down to a decision of whether you want to play with the infield in or play at double play depth. It's still unbelievable that they had Akin pitch to O'Neill. Not just because O'Neill is having a dominant season against lefties, but because Akin has a 2 cent head when runners are on base and in high leverage situations.

Everything was against Akin w/ O'Neill batting. You can pick your poison with Yoshida. If they PH and put in Refsnyder, then you can go to a different arm. Either way, there's a high run expectancy for that runner on 3rd with 1 out, not so much for the runner on 2nd.

It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to have Akin pitch to O'Neill. I don't care if the winning run is on second. 

There were men on 1st and 3rd with one out  O’Neil hits a homer 12% of the time vs lefties which is what they would have been needed to win the game.  A single just puts the winning run on 2nd maybe third most likely in Fenway a double won’t score him with the wall unless he hits it the other way which he doesn’t do.  As good as he is he still just gets a hit 33% of the time Yoshida  even though he doesn’t hit well vs them doesn’t strike out and he has 5 GIDP in 385 plate which ranks him 155th out of 178 qualified hitters with 400 at bats.  So the chances of getting a double play are very slim.  
In order to win the game you have these scenarios and percentage based on splits.  

1 O’Neil to hit a homer 12% 

2. O’neil to get a hit 32% and Yoshida get a hit 20%(30% if Refsynder pinch hits) or Jansen to get a hit 25%

3. Walk O’Neil  20% Yoshida gets a hit or 25% Jansen gets a hit 

So statistically it shows these percentages for Boston to win

Pitch to O’Neil and he homers 12% 

Pitch to O’Neil and they get two hits to win 14% 

Walk him and face Yoshida and Jansen and one of them get a hit 22% 

That is without factoring in wild pitch walk or an error which makes walking him a worse decision.  

 

 

[Aristotelian]

44 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

There were men on 1st and 3rd with one out  O’Neil hits a homer 12% of the time vs lefties which is what they would have been needed to win the game.  A single just puts the winning run on 2nd maybe third most likely in Fenway a double won’t score him with the wall unless he hits it the other way which he doesn’t do.  As good as he is he still just gets a hit 33% of the time Yoshida  even though he doesn’t hit well vs them doesn’t strike out and he has 5 GIDP in 385 plate which ranks him 155th out of 178 qualified hitters with 400 at bats.  So the chances of getting a double play are very slim.  
In order to win the game you have these scenarios and percentage based on splits.  

1 O’Neil to hit a homer 12% 

2. O’neil to get a hit 32% and Yoshida get a hit 20%(30% if Refsynder pinch hits) or Jansen to get a hit 25%

3. Walk O’Neil  20% Yoshida gets a hit or 25% Jansen gets a hit 

So statistically it shows these percentages for Boston to win

Pitch to O’Neil and he homers 12% 

Pitch to O’Neil and they get two hits to win 14% 

Walk him and face Yoshida and Jansen and one of them get a hit 22% 

That is without factoring in wild pitch walk or an error which makes walking him a worse decision.  

 

 

A hit or walk plus a sac fly also wins it in the IBB scenario.  

Setting aside matchups, the generic expected runs goes from 1.18 to 1.57 and probability of 2+ runs goes 27% to 40%. Those are some pretty big numbers.

I am guessing Akin was told to stay away from O'Neil for one of those "intentional-unintentional" walks in the worst case scenario. So it really should have been a K, sac fly, or walk if Akin executes. 

Watching the replay, I don't get what they were going for. Adley sets up outside but shifts inside with the pitch. So it looks like he called for an inside pitch which seems like a really bad idea. Were they trying to bury it in the dirt and Akin left it up? The first pitch was a FB in the dirt, also inside. 

Anyway, my unscientific "blame percentage" is something like 70% on Holliday for booting the grounder, 20% on Hyde for burning Cano, 8% on Akin for the pitch execution, and then like 2% on Hyde for making the wrong call in hindsight on a 50/50 IBB. 

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

There were men on 1st and 3rd with one out  O’Neil hits a homer 12% of the time vs lefties which is what they would have been needed to win the game.  A single just puts the winning run on 2nd maybe third most likely in Fenway a double won’t score him with the wall unless he hits it the other way which he doesn’t do.  As good as he is he still just gets a hit 33% of the time Yoshida  even though he doesn’t hit well vs them doesn’t strike out and he has 5 GIDP in 385 plate which ranks him 155th out of 178 qualified hitters with 400 at bats.  So the chances of getting a double play are very slim.  
In order to win the game you have these scenarios and percentage based on splits.  

1 O’Neil to hit a homer 12% 

2. O’neil to get a hit 32% and Yoshida get a hit 20%(30% if Refsynder pinch hits) or Jansen to get a hit 25%

3. Walk O’Neil  20% Yoshida gets a hit or 25% Jansen gets a hit 

So statistically it shows these percentages for Boston to win

Pitch to O’Neil and he homers 12% 

Pitch to O’Neil and they get two hits to win 14% 

Walk him and face Yoshida and Jansen and one of them get a hit 22% 

That is without factoring in wild pitch walk or an error which makes walking him a worse decision.  

 

 

I appreciate the effort. But these numbers don't apply because we know that Akin is awful with runners on and in high leverage situations and we need to consider O'Neill's dominance against lefties, so a homer isn't the only consideration. He's decently fast (above average) *and* he can hit doubles or even triples with that goofy ass wall and dead center's orientation. Probably here is that Akin isn't going to attack O'Neill, so we know he's going to put him in a position where he's going to rip something. 

Edited Friday at 18:01 by LookitsPuck