Anthony Santander 2024

[Hallas]

49 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Trumbo was also out of baseball by age 32 or 33, like many other completely one dimensional sluggers before and after him.

Santander is just such a completely one dimensional slugger.

 

At least relative to the rest of the league Santander has an interesting profile because he is comfortably above-average at making contact; his whiff rates are much better than Trumbo's so he's not really as much of a TTO player as you would think.  This gives him hope that he will age a little bit better than someone like Trumbo.  Though he's still got a good shot of being out of the league in 3 years.

[Sydnor]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Baseball Savant has Santander in the 22nd percentile in terms of overall fielding value.

However you want to slice it, he isn't going to make up any lost value from declining offense with his defense. If his ability to slug goes south, the whole contract goes with it, because he has no other tools to make up for that with.

But that is not what you said. You said he’s a bad fielder, just not quite Trumbo-tier. Thus, you were stating he is close to as bad a fielder as Trumbo was, which is not correct.

Generally speaking, no player makes up the loss of offensive value with defensive value as the age. It is usually one of the first things to go. I was not making any sort of argument that he was going to make up declining offense with defense, just pointing out that you made a preposterous statement.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

At least relative to the rest of the league Santander has an interesting profile because he is comfortably above-average at making contact; his whiff rates are much better than Trumbo's so he's not really as much of a TTO player as you would think.  This gives him hope that he will age a little bit better than someone like Trumbo.  Though he's still got a good shot of being out of the league in 3 years.

I also think Santander will age better than Trumbo, despite my repeated comparisons of the two players.

But I don't know that he will age better than Trumbo and all of the other one dimensional sluggers who were enjoying the retired millionaire sports star lifestyle by their mid-30s, and I don't want the Orioles to be on the hook when the world finds out in 2 or 3 years.

Re-signing Santander to a 4 year, $80 million dollar deal is something the DD/PA regime would have done. Hopefully the ME/DR regime is smarter than that (and I think they are).

4 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

But that is not what you said. You said he’s a bad fielder, just not quite Trumbo-tier. Thus, you were stating he is close to as bad a fielder as Trumbo was, which is not correct.

Generally speaking, no player makes up the loss of offensive value with defensive value as the age. It is usually one of the first things to go. I was not making any sort of argument that he was going to make up declining offense with defense, just pointing out that you made a preposterous statement.

22nd percentile is really bad, man.

And it's unlikely to improve in his 30s.

[Baseball fandom]

24 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

It's not the money, it's the years.  I wouldn't mind signing him for a year or two, even at what I'd consider to be stupid money.  But what I DON'T agree with is signing him for any more than 2-3 years as I don't think he's going to age well.  And I expect him to get more than 3 years from someone, so I'm a hard pass.  Can we afford him?  Money wise, sure.  But I don't want to see us stuck with him 4-5 years down the road when his skillset has greatly diminished, but he's still playing every day because we owe him a lot of money and a lot of loyalty.  Let some other club take that risk, get the QO pick and move on.  

I've made it clear that if they don't sign Santa and Burnes I'm ok with it as long as the money is allocated to other players they feel that fits their profile better .You know you have people on here like SG who only hears what he wants to hear. I need to learn to ignore that guy. 

[maybenxtyr]

Santander is a good case for the Rule V draft. That's unfortunately the same system that's going to make his next contract potentially look bad.

If only he were a couple of years younger. It's hard to commit 25+M to a player at 30+. He's going to be missed in Baltimore, on the field and by the fans, but he's someone that they're going to have to let move on. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Baseball fandom said:

I've made it clear that if they don't sign Santa and Burnes I'm ok with it as long as the money is allocated to other players they feel that fits their profile better .You know you have people on here like SG who only hears what he wants to hear. I need to learn to ignore that guy. 

Please do.   Zero people have said don’t spend money. You are lying. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

Santander is a low OBP, poor BA, mediocre fielder with very little base running value player.  

He has great power and can carry a team. He’s a really good dude, solid in the clubhouse and a great representative for your franchise.

In many ways, he is exactly like Trumbo even if he is the better player.  And even if he doesn’t fall off as dramatically as Trumbo did, he’s still very likely to fall off. 
 

For what he will cost, you can bring in some solid pitching.

Next years offense, barring any trades, should look something like this:

1st-Mayo, 2nd- Holliday, SS- Gunnar, 3rd- Westburg

C- Adley

OF- Kjerstad and Cowser

Basallo potentially ready by midseason or so.

That leaves you with decisions on Mountcastle, Mullins and OHearn and I guess Santander.

You need to get right handed. Mounty is a righty but unless you are moving Mayo to the OF, you need him to play first. Do you keep Mounty around to be a 1st/DH if Mayo is also going to play the OF?  Maybe.

Some RH bats to consider:

Tyler O’Neill. Having a really nice year.  Strong arm in the OF but struggles out there otherwise. Not a great fit for OPACY LF.

JD Martinez: Still can hit but zero versatility. In a game that values that, do you want to sign someone who doesn’t give you any?  On the Os, it may be ok but I tend to doubt they would.

Duvall: Good defensive player. Abysmal with the bat this year but was very good last year. buy low guy who could provide some bench value.

Robert: Been awful this year and had injury issues in the past. WS have already said they will trim payroll after this year. There are very few ways for them to do that, especially since Benintendi has no value. Robert will be made available. Great spend, very good in the OF and still a tremendous offensive upside. He will cost a lot less to acquire than last offseason.  The Os reportedly were interested in him before. Teams like the Dodgers and Mariners were linked to him at the deadline. There will be competition for him and maybe the Os don’t have the same depth to trade out of that they did in the past, so it may be tough but they should look into it.

[Safelykept]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Santander is a low OBP, poor BA, mediocre fielder with very little base running value player.  

He has great power and can carry a team. He’s a really good dude, solid in the clubhouse and a great representative for your franchise.

In many ways, he is exactly like Trumbo even if he is the better player.  And even if he doesn’t fall off as dramatically as Trumbo did, he’s still very likely to fall off. 
 

For what he will cost, you can bring in some solid pitching.

Next years offense, barring any trades, should look something like this:

1st-Mayo, 2nd- Holliday, SS- Gunnar, 3rd- Westburg

C- Adley

OF- Kjerstad and Cowser

Basallo potentially ready by midseason or so.

That leaves you with decisions on Mountcastle, Mullins and OHearn and I guess Santander.

You need to get right handed. Mounty is a righty but unless you are moving Mayo to the OF, you need him to play first. Do you keep Mounty around to be a 1st/DH if Mayo is also going to play the OF?  Maybe.

Some RH bats to consider:

Tyler O’Neill. Having a really nice year.  Strong arm in the OF but struggles out there otherwise. Not a great fit for OPACY LF.

JD Martinez: Still can hit but zero versatility. In a game that values that, do you want to sign someone who doesn’t give you any?  On the Os, it may be ok but I tend to doubt they would.

Duvall: Good defensive player. Abysmal with the bat this year but was very good last year. buy low guy who could provide some bench value.

Robert: Been awful this year and had injury issues in the past. WS have already said they will trim payroll after this year. There are very few ways for them to do that, especially since Benintendi has no value. Robert will be made available. Great spend, very good in the OF and still a tremendous offensive upside. He will cost a lot less to acquire than last offseason.  The Os reportedly were interested in him before. Teams like the Dodgers and Mariners were linked to him at the deadline. There will be competition for him and maybe the Os don’t have the same depth to trade out of that they did in the past, so it may be tough but they should look into it.

That leaves you with decisions on Mountcastle, Mullins and OHearn and I guess Santander.

 

Good points I dont think Mullins is a decision at this point ( unless they change the park again, he's back} Mounty. O'Hearn ? , where is room if Mayo is still here. Santa?, only on 2 year deal or less. My bigger concern is if Santa is gone, who is the RH outfield bat upgrade over Slater that can play some defense.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

That leaves you with decisions on Mountcastle, Mullins and OHearn and I guess Santander.

 

Good points I dont think Mullins is a decision at this point ( unless they change the park again, he's back} Mounty. O'Hearn ? , where is room if Mayo is still here. Santa?, only on 2 year deal or less. My bigger concern is if Santa is gone, who is the RH outfield bat upgrade over Slater that can play some defense.

Mullins is a decision because of his age and service time. He has one year left. As of right now, he would be a shaky guy to offer a QO to. Like Santander, that could change next year and become more obvious.

So, do you keep him for next year and be happy with potentially losing him after next year for nothing?

And do you feel he will continue this resurgence and be good next year? 
 

Im very skeptical of his offense but agree the defense is very important.
 

Besides Robert, I’m not sure what trade options could be there.

Mullins also may get us some value in other areas that we need and/or give us some much needed MiL depth, especially on the mound. 

[Safelykept]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins is a decision because of his age and service time. He has one year left. As of right now, he would be a shaky guy to offer a QO to. Like Santander, that could change next year and become more obvious.

So, do you keep him for next year and be happy with potentially losing him after next year for nothing?

And do you feel he will continue this resurgence and be good next year? 
 

Im very skeptical of his offense but agree the defense is very important.
 

Besides Robert, I’m not sure what trade options could be there.

Mullins also may get us some value in other areas that we need and/or give us some much needed MiL depth, especially on the mound. 

Well, all 4 are decisions, I went with Mullins because of the defense. They wont extend him and it would take a 2021 season To QO him. Robert could be the RH bat, but a loyt of unfulfilled promise due to injuries. (should come fairly Cheap) With AS likely gone , it opens up 2 potential OF spots. so theres that.

Mounty? Depends on confidence level in Mayo

O'hearn? youre guess is as good as mine.

[sportsfan8703]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Santander is a low OBP, poor BA, mediocre fielder with very little base running value player.  

He has great power and can carry a team. He’s a really good dude, solid in the clubhouse and a great representative for your franchise.

In many ways, he is exactly like Trumbo even if he is the better player.  And even if he doesn’t fall off as dramatically as Trumbo did, he’s still very likely to fall off. 
 

For what he will cost, you can bring in some solid pitching.

Next years offense, barring any trades, should look something like this:

1st-Mayo, 2nd- Holliday, SS- Gunnar, 3rd- Westburg

C- Adley

OF- Kjerstad and Cowser

Basallo potentially ready by midseason or so.

That leaves you with decisions on Mountcastle, Mullins and OHearn and I guess Santander.

You need to get right handed. Mounty is a righty but unless you are moving Mayo to the OF, you need him to play first. Do you keep Mounty around to be a 1st/DH if Mayo is also going to play the OF?  Maybe.

Some RH bats to consider:

Tyler O’Neill. Having a really nice year.  Strong arm in the OF but struggles out there otherwise. Not a great fit for OPACY LF.

JD Martinez: Still can hit but zero versatility. In a game that values that, do you want to sign someone who doesn’t give you any?  On the Os, it may be ok but I tend to doubt they would.

Duvall: Good defensive player. Abysmal with the bat this year but was very good last year. buy low guy who could provide some bench value.

Robert: Been awful this year and had injury issues in the past. WS have already said they will trim payroll after this year. There are very few ways for them to do that, especially since Benintendi has no value. Robert will be made available. Great spend, very good in the OF and still a tremendous offensive upside. He will cost a lot less to acquire than last offseason.  The Os reportedly were interested in him before. Teams like the Dodgers and Mariners were linked to him at the deadline. There will be competition for him and maybe the Os don’t have the same depth to trade out of that they did in the past, so it may be tough but they should look into it.

Oddly, it’s the offense that I’m worried about for next year. Theoretically, we should go back to having a dominant pen with Bautista back. That helps shorten the game from the back of the pen down. 

We’ve shown the ability under this regime to be able to piece together a rotation. 

Subtracting Santa from this offense will be tough. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Oddly, it’s the offense that I’m worried about for next year. Theoretically, we should go back to having a dominant pen with Bautista back. That helps shorten the game from the back of the pen down. 

We’ve shown the ability under this regime to be able to piece together a rotation. 

Subtracting Santa from this offense will be tough. 

The pen needs more help than just Bautista.

So let’s say Santander is gone and the offense misses him…but what if the defense and pitching get better?

People seem to have this narrow view of the sport that you can only win one way or with certain players. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Sports Guy

[Safelykept]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Oddly, it’s the offense that I’m worried about for next year. Theoretically, we should go back to having a dominant pen with Bautista back. That helps shorten the game from the back of the pen down. 

We’ve shown the ability under this regime to be able to piece together a rotation. 

Subtracting Santa from this offense will be tough. 

So what would you offer?, For me Max 2 years with mutual option. IF its any more than that keeping him might be tough.

[Safelykept]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The pen needs more help than just Bautista.

Danny's back. I guess youre moving on from SA and Soto?

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

Danny's back. I guess youre moving on from SA and Soto?

DC is a FA.

Soto and Dominguez are interesting decisions.

SA is due 8M next year. Soto is under team control and likely looking at a salary in the 6.5M range.  

In some ways, they sound like overpays for each. OTOH, they miss bats, can be high leverage guys and you don’t have long term commitments with either.

As of now, I lean towards keeping both. I would like to re-sign DC depending on the contract.

But I would still like to add another power arm. Now, that power arm could be an unproven close to ML ready prospect you get for Mullins or Mounty or OHearn. It doesn’t have to be someone you sign to a major deal. There may also be some ML relievers available for trade that makes sense.

We see these teams all the time that just seemingly have power arm after power arm and we don’t have that. Elias has failed to address the pen properly imo and really, we don’t know if Felix will be the 2023 Felix going forward. 

The pen has to be seen as a priority this year. 
 

I want to see resources poured into the pitching staff and the improvement of the defense. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Sports Guy