Adley Rutschman 2024

[OsBeavs]

Interesting to watch the video above which shows he has the second best batting average against fastballs over the last two years behind Betts.  And that includes his slow start as a rookie. Seems like a good position to be in because he knows pitchers are probably going to throw off speed to him a lot, which makes them more predictable.

[OriolesMagic83]

I still can't understand why Adley has such a low walk rate.  Adley went from an elite walk rate as a rookie to now a well below average walk rate.  Maybe it's the exchange he had to make to unlock more power, but I was secure in the knowledge that Adley would always be among the ML walk leaders.  Now this whole team led by Adley is swinging at everything and anything.  Obviously there are times you need to look to kill that 1st pitch, but it would be nice to work some counts and prolong at bats.  The O's seem to have a lot of 6 pitch innings. 

[Billy F-Face3]

23 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I still can't understand why Adley has such a low walk rate.  Adley went from an elite walk rate as a rookie to now a well below average walk rate.  Maybe it's the exchange he had to make to unlock more power, but I was secure in the knowledge that Adley would always be among the ML walk leaders.  Now this whole team led by Adley is swinging at everything and anything.  Obviously there are times you need to look to kill that 1st pitch, but it would be nice to work some counts and prolong at bats.  The O's seem to have a lot of 6 pitch innings. 

I've noticed this causes alot of ground ball roll over choppers from time to time too. Can ve frustrating especially when it costs the Orioles 2 outs from a double play.

[Frobby]

Prompted by a post in another thread by @RZNJ, I was looking to see if Adley’s low walk rate was caused partially by being more aggressive on the first pitch.  Hardly.   Last year Adley had 40 PA where he put the first pitch in play.  This year, in 50 games he’s only done it six times!   His first pitch swing rate has dropped from 11.9% to 9.4%.   So, he’s actually doubled down on his take the first pitch strategy.

On the other hand, Adley clearly has decided decided to get more aggressive in two-strike counts.  Last year, 27.7.% of his strikeouts were caught looking; this year, only 7.7%.   

Last year, Adley let the count get full 113 times, and walked in 50 of those, striking out 20 times.  This year after 50 games he has only had a full count 18 times, walking 6, striking out twice.  

Last year, Adley let the count get to two strikes  388 times, striking out 101 rimes and producing a .654 OPS in those at bats. This year, Adley has had 117 two-strike counts, striking out 39 times and producing a .547 OPS.

There’s a lot to unpack there, but my big takeaway is that Adley is being even less aggressive than before on first pitches, and more aggressive pretty much everywhere else, and he’s not letting a two-strike pitch close to the strike zone go by without taking a swing at it.

 

[Billy F-Face3]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

he’s not letting a two-strike pitch close to the strike zone go by without taking a swing at it.

I wouldn't either. Gotta protect the plate with 2 strikes. Anything close... Attack.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I wouldn't either. Gotta protect the plate with 2 strikes. Anything close... Attack.

Problem is, he’s swinging at a lot of pitches that aren’t close.

[wildcard]

There doesn't seem to be much discussion about Adley's splits.

vs righties.   640 OPS

vs lefties       1146 OPS

Edited May 27 by wildcard

[Billy F-Face3]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There doesn't seem to be much discussion about Adley's splits.

vs righties.   640 OPS

vs lefties       1146 OPS

Which is strange because last season he was more powerful against lefties than righties.

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

Which is strange because last season he was more powerful against lefties than righties.

I mean righties than lefties. Sorry, haven't slept

[Aristotelian]

It really is interesting. He was the same guy, incredibly consistently, for his first two years. Now he had become more aggressive and gone from near 1:1 BB/K to close to 1:4. He has also dramatically reversed his splits to the point he is like better than Shohei from the right side but below average from the left.

Is it possible the new style is working on the right side but not the left? Is it possible to revert to his old style on the left side and keep the new style on the right side? What is the role of the pitchers in all of this? 

Either way, he has come up huge for us recently. Two +30ish WPA hits in three games. Dude is a very special player. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I mean righties than lefties. Sorry, haven't slept

It’s wrong anyway.  Adley was .778 vs. RHP, .895 vs. LHP.   It was 2022 when he was better vs. RHP (.889/.552).   Bottom line, most switch hitters vary a lot year to year as to which is their stronger side.  

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Prompted by a post in another thread by @RZNJ, I was looking to see if Adley’s low walk rate was caused partially by being more aggressive on the first pitch.  Hardly.   Last year Adley had 40 PA where he put the first pitch in play.  This year, in 50 games he’s only done it six times!   His first pitch swing rate has dropped from 11.9% to 9.4%.   So, he’s actually doubled down on his take the first pitch strategy.

On the other hand, Adley clearly has decided decided to get more aggressive in two-strike counts.  Last year, 27.7.% of his strikeouts were caught looking; this year, only 7.7%.   

Last year, Adley let the count get full 113 times, and walked in 50 of those, striking out 20 times.  This year after 50 games he has only had a full count 18 times, walking 6, striking out twice.  

Last year, Adley let the count get to two strikes  388 times, striking out 101 rimes and producing a .654 OPS in those at bats. This year, Adley has had 117 two-strike counts, striking out 39 times and producing a .547 OPS.

There’s a lot to unpack there, but my big takeaway is that Adley is being even less aggressive than before on first pitches, and more aggressive pretty much everywhere else, and he’s not letting a two-strike pitch close to the strike zone go by without taking a swing at it.

 

Thanks for making me look like a dope.  LOL

I should have taken the 2 minutes to check the “swung at first pitch” stat on BRef before going with my intuition.   Hard to believe he’s just as passive as ever on the first pitch.  The current approach does have him on the kind of pace (30/100) that looks awfully good.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Thanks for making me look like a dope.  LOL

I should have taken the 2 minutes to check the “swung at first pitch” stat on BRef before going with my intuition.   Hard to believe he’s just as passive as ever on the first pitch.  The current approach does have him on the kind of pace (30/100) that looks awfully good.

You’d think teams would just pump in strikes on the first pitch, knowing that Adley is not likely to swing.   But they don’t.  He’s only seeing 58.8% strikes on the first pitch (including swinging strikes), which is below the major league average.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Prompted by a post in another thread by @RZNJ, I was looking to see if Adley’s low walk rate was caused partially by being more aggressive on the first pitch.  Hardly.   Last year Adley had 40 PA where he put the first pitch in play.  This year, in 50 games he’s only done it six times!   His first pitch swing rate has dropped from 11.9% to 9.4%.   So, he’s actually doubled down on his take the first pitch strategy.

On the other hand, Adley clearly has decided decided to get more aggressive in two-strike counts.  Last year, 27.7.% of his strikeouts were caught looking; this year, only 7.7%.   

Last year, Adley let the count get full 113 times, and walked in 50 of those, striking out 20 times.  This year after 50 games he has only had a full count 18 times, walking 6, striking out twice.  

Last year, Adley let the count get to two strikes  388 times, striking out 101 rimes and producing a .654 OPS in those at bats. This year, Adley has had 117 two-strike counts, striking out 39 times and producing a .547 OPS.

There’s a lot to unpack there, but my big takeaway is that Adley is being even less aggressive than before on first pitches, and more aggressive pretty much everywhere else, and he’s not letting a two-strike pitch close to the strike zone go by without taking a swing at it.

 

With two strikes the league OPSes hits .168/.246/.258 with a .504 OPS. So either .654 or .547 he's doing better in those situations than most batters. Since the start of 2023 he's 34th in MLB in two-strike OPS out of 300 batters with 100+ PAs in those situations.

Our old friend DJ Stewart is 17-for-126 with 78 Ks and a .465 OPS when batting with two strikes. Elly De La Cruz is OPSing .471 with two strikes, with 215 strikeouts in 373 PAs.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’d think teams would just pump in strikes on the first pitch, knowing that Adley is not likely to swing.   But they don’t.  He’s only seeing 58.8% strikes on the first pitch (including swinging strikes), which is below the major league average.

They know that if they start doing that he'll start swinging at more of them, and when he's put the first pitch in play over his career he's batting .314 with an .895 OPS. Although that's actually just seven points of OPS higher than the MLB average.