Another Positive Indicator for the Orioles Season to Date

[Filmstudy]

The Orioles are 3-4 in 1-run games and 9-3 in games decided by 5+ runs.

One basic truth in identifying great teams is that they regularly beat the living snot out of their opponents (and thus have high run differentials), but it is very difficult to maintain an outstanding record in 1-run games.

The Orioles are in a position to improve their 1-run record (and play more 1-run games) but I honestly don't think they'll finish worse than .667 for the season in games decided by 5+ runs.

As a point of reference, the 1969 Orioles, who had the best record in team history (109-53, .673) were 35-21 (.625) in 1-run games but 30-8 (.789) in games decided by 5+ runs.

[dystopia]

That 3-4 record is largely because of Kimbrel. I’m not a big believer in the 1-run luck theory, especially now that we have the BS ghost runner. 

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That 3-4 record is largely because of Kimbrel. I’m not a big believer in the 1-run luck theory, especially now that we have the BS ghost runner. 

Why?  Both teams get the ghost runner.  That seems to be an equalizer more than something like BP talent.

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Why?  Both teams get the ghost runner.  That seems to be an equalizer more than something like BP talent.

Because a team who has a Mason Miller/Felix Bautista or some other heavy strikeout pitcher will have an advantage. That’s not luck. 

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Because a team who has a Mason Miller/Felix Bautista or some other heavy strikeout pitcher will have an advantage. That’s not luck. 

True or False:  A team who has a Mason Miller/Felix Bautista big time strikeout guy always has an advantage no matter the situation in late and close situations.

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True or False:  A team who has a Mason Miller/Felix Bautista big time strikeout guy always has an advantage no matter the situation in late and close situations.

This is true. But it is especially true in situations where there are no outs and a runner on second. 

[dystopia]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

True or False:  A team who has a Mason Miller/Felix Bautista big time strikeout guy always has an advantage no matter the situation in late and close situations.

Yes, that’s true, which further makes my point that a good 1-run record isn’t just luck. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Yes, that’s true, which further makes my point that a good 1-run record isn’t just luck. 

It’s not just luck, nothing is.  But 1 run records aren’t usually sustainable from year to year.

There is a lot of luck involved but sure, having high K pitchers that miss bats are huge in those types of games.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Because a team who has a Mason Miller/Felix Bautista or some other heavy strikeout pitcher will have an advantage. That’s not luck. 

Gotcha.  I agree with that angle.  It's a factor.  Not necessarily the ghost runner though.  That seems a bit more subject to luck.

[dystopia]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Gotcha.  I agree with that angle.  It's a factor.  Not necessarily the ghost runner though.  That seems a bit more subject to luck.

I actually think the advantage is more pronounced with that rule because the runner is much less likely to score with a strikeout pitcher on the mound than someone who gives up soft contact because hitters can hit the ball to the right side in those situations to move the runner. Or simply bunt. 

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I actually think the advantage is more pronounced with that rule because the runner is much less likely to score with a strikeout pitcher on the mound than someone who gives up soft contact because hitters can hit the ball to the right side in those situations to move the runner. Or simply bunt. 

That's a BP factor not a ghost runner factor.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

Because a team who has a Mason Miller/Felix Bautista or some other heavy strikeout pitcher will have an advantage. That’s not luck. 

Kimbrel is striking out 14.9 per 9.   Lack of strikeouts hasn’t been an issue for him.  

[now]

This discussion brings up a point I floated yesterday about Wells or Kremer being a risky option for late relief because of the HR ball. Now I wonder, is that true or false? A run is a run is  run. Seems like ERA might be a better litmus test for picking a closer (or any pitching role except extra innings, where it does seem obvious that high K rate is best).

Edited May 7 by now

[SteveA]

The one bad assumption people make about 1-run records is that a good late inning bullpen crew should automatically lead to a better record.

Sure, the good bullpen will protect more 1 run leads and give you more 1 run wins that way.

But a worse bullpen may start the 9th with a 2 or 3 run lead and given up a run or two, so you win by 1 run.   So a bad bullpen can also lead to more 1 run wins.  The Orioles bullpen failure Saturday night gave us a 1 run win which improved our record in 1 run games.   If Kimbrel had been lights out, we would have had one LESS 1 run win.

1-run wins aren't just games where you lead by a run and hold on because your bullpen pitches well.   They are also games where you lead by more and your pitching allows the opponent to get to within 1 run.

Similarly, 1 run losses are not all the result of bad bullpen.   Maybe you are a run behind in the 7th, and you lose by 1 run because your good pen doesn't let the opponent add any more, and you don't score.   Whereas a worse bullpen, you might have given up runs in the 8th and 9th lost by > 1 run.   So you get an extra 1-run loss on your record BECAUSE your bullpen is good in that case.

These situations all muddy the water when it comes to 1-run win%.   There is not necessarily a correlation between bullpen strength and 1-run game win% because of all the different ways a game can wind up a 1 run game.   We tend to focus on the single case of "1-run lead in the 9th" where having a good bullpen will obviously make your 1-run record better.   But those games are actually a small % of the cases.

[thegardner]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Why?  Both teams get the ghost runner.  That seems to be an equalizer more than something like BP talent.

Yes, but the ghost runner is a big advantage for the home team.