Bowden trade proposal: Kjerstad to CLE for two bullpen pieces

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m curious about your reference to “career middling relievers.”   These are two guys who have all 6 years of service time remaining, and Smith had never pitched in the majors.   So what “career”do you mean?  Minor leagues?  I’ll grant you that neither had a great ERA there, though Smith at 14.1 K/9 (14.6 in AAA) is pretty intriguing.  I’d defer to the Orioles evaluators as to what their major league potential is.  

Yes strictly basing my two 'guys' statement based on their careers so far up through the minors.  For all I know they may turn into an Andrew Miller but I am not risking my second pick in the draft who has performed very well so far on it.  I mean his ranking and performance in the minor leagues dwarfed those 2 performance wise. 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I’m fine with trading Kjerstad but not for two relievers who might not be better than we have.  Couldn’t Gaddis and Smith just as easily turn into pumpkins?  Do they have some kind of track record beyond their first 15 innings pitched this year?  Gaddis had a 4.50 ERA for the Guardians and Smith had a 4.00 ERA in AAA.  All of a sudden those guys are studs.  If we go by the first 15 innings then Suarez, Webb, Coulombe, and Akin are all studs too.  So tell me which 2-3 pitchers do you want to DFA.  Akin is the only one with options.   You want to trade Kjerstad for two relievers you’re sure are that much better than what we already have?

Wanna make an omelette, you gotta break some eggs.  If not these two, some others.  Like I said, I'm shopping Kjerstad if I get to call the shots.

You sure seem convinced that Kjerstad is really going to turn into that 30 homer guy, too.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Ummmmm...maybe because he is a top 100 prospect and a former #2 draft pick and the 2 guys from Clev have been middling relievers there entire careers?

 

Tell ya what.  Why don't you offer 2 of our average middle relievers to XXX team for a top 100 prospect and top 5 pick and see how far you get without being laughed out of the room.

 

Some of the takes I see from people such as yourself....wanting to trade top talent for relievers who are literally a dime a dozen...is wild to me.

What would you give for Torkelson?

He's a former #1 pick.

Tim Beckham was a #1 pick and the O's got him for Tobias Myers.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Wanna make an omelette, you gotta break some eggs.  If not these two, some others.  Like I said, I'm shopping Kjerstad if I get to call the shots.

You sure seem convinced that Kjerstad is really going to turn into that 30 homer guy, too.  

I  don’t break eggs to make an omelette if I already have a warm one on the plate.

I’m not convinced of anything. Kjerstad could be a 30 homer guy.  Maybe not.  If I had to bet, I’d bet on the 30.  That’s not the point.   The point is if you trade Kjerstad it should be for a difference maker.  Have you ever even seen Cade Smith pitch?   Are you convinced he’s a difference making setup man?

[OnlyOneOriole]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What would you give for Torkelson?

He's a former #1 pick.

Tim Beckham was a #1 pick and the O's got him for Tobias Myers.

Difference is Heston has performed so far in the minors and looks as though he is starting to get his feet under him with the parent club.  He has given the O's no reason to not expect him to do well into the future.  Especially in 2025 when he will probably be a starter.

Edited May 7 by OnlyOneOriole

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I  don’t break eggs to make an omelette if I already have a warm one on the plate.

I’m not convinced of anything. Kjerstad could be a 30 homer guy.  Maybe not.  If I had to bet, I’d bet on the 30.  That’s not the point.   The point is if you trade Kjerstad it should be for a difference maker.  Have you ever even seen Cade Smith pitch?   Are you convinced he’s a difference making setup man?

Yup.  Sure have. 
 

Congrats on your omelette!

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yup.  Sure have. 
 

Congrats on your omelette!

So you’re convinced Cade Smith is going to have a big year for the Guardians?   What’s your scouting report?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Difference is Heston has performed so far in the minors and looks as though he is starting to get his feet under him with the parent club.  He has given the O's no reason to not expect him to do well into the future.  Especially in 2025 when he will probably be a starter.

That's the important part, not that he was the second pick.

Other than you who cares about his draft pedigree at this stage?

[OnlyOneOriole]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's the important part, not that he was the second pick.

Other than you who cares about his draft pedigree at this stage?

No one.

 

But my point is he was drafted second for a reason (past performance and talent) and has given the Os no reason to doubt him moving ahead.  In fact considering his health issues after he was drafted?  I would say he has done exceptional.

He could be a locked in corner outfielder with plus power for years.  All star is his ceiling.   I would not trade that for 2 middle relievers who on the other hand do not have the pedigree that Heston does and who up until this year have had so so minor league careers.

Way too much risk that they regress imo.  Especially for having to give up on a very promising outfielder. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

No one.

 

But my point is he was drafted second for a reason (past performance and talent) and has given the Os no reason to doubt him moving ahead.  In fact considering his health issues after he was drafted?  I would say he has done exceptional.

He could be a locked in corner outfielder with plus power for years.  All star is his ceiling.   I would not trade that for 2 middle relievers who on the other hand do not have the pedigree that Heston does and who up until this year have had so so minor league careers.

Way too much risk that they regress imo.  Especially for having to give up on a very promising outfielder. 

So was Torkelson, he was picked ahead of Kjerstad.

His draft pedigree is irrelevant.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

We're not going to have room for all of these guys.  We're just not.  These wet dream posts of lineups 1-9 with all homegrown talent are exactly that.  

Second, you're acting like just because he's a top 100 prospect doesn't mean there's a chance that he won't make it.  I'll tip my cap to Elias and his crew, they've done a masterful job of developing talent, I can understand why people are so excited about all of our prospects but if we're going to have to trade one, I'm going to go with the one that has a lot of swing and miss in his game and isn't pegged as a great defender at either corner outfield spot.  He's also already 25 years old, barely has played at all in the majors....and some of that's not his fault, but it still is what it is.

With this franchise's ability to scout, draft and develop, I am not at all worried about trading Heston Kjerstad for bullpen help in a day and age where elite bullpens are game changers.  We're going to need a stout bullpen if/when we make it to the playoffs.  It's the one spot of this team I think that we should all be able to agree that needs an upgrade.

You're also neglecting to understand the fact that those relievers are under team control for awhile and have options which means there's more value to the Cleveland relievers that you're so quick to dismiss.  In your little scenario where you're talking about switching places and trading our middling relievers for someone like Kjerstad, you're acting like we'd be trying to trade Baumann and Suarez which is just intentionally obtuse on your part, you should be ashamed.  And with how Elias and his team have developed pitching and used analytics and pitch mixing,  I'm not too worried about the performance of either one coming back. 

If we were the 28th ranked minor league system and Kjerstad was our only guy we had to dream on, sure, I'd agree with you.  But it's not like Dylan Beavers isn't killing it in AA, he's 2 years younger and can play a corner outfield spot in Camden Yards.  

Blargh, blargh, blargh #2 overall pick blarg, blargh, blargh 

This is of course a pretty well reasoned post...but it comes undone a bit at the end.  Valuing players and trading value for value is what every good GM strives to do. And saying we have Beavers so we can trade Kjerstad is of course correct, but you absolutely don't want to devalue what you get in return for talent because you have more.

On the margins, sure.  But if you value your work, and it is clear that Elias does, and you believe these guys still have value, you don't just give em away because you have plenty.  I know that is not what you are really saying.  But the counter is also true.  I don't think keeping people to have 1-9 homegrown is a thing.  And I would rather trade Kjerstad for a bat that might push us over the edge than trade him for two middling relievers.  He is more valuable than that today even taking into account the wide range of outcomes he could have.

I believe we will make trades before the deadline.  I don't think Elias cares where the starting 9 comes from but I think he will look for true upgrades.  

[oriole]

It’s a tough call. The O’s need more help in the bullpen, both short term and long term, than they do in the outfield. But I think the state of affairs are well enough that you can really pick and choose your keepers. Kjerstad is a “nugget” (are we still using that term?) and the back of the bullpen, while a weak spot on an otherwise great team, isn’t really that bad off or anything. So you offer out the guys that obviously don’t have a place here, presently Norby, Stowers, and Beavers, and take what you can get for them…assuming you’re not giving them away of course. No reason to put Kjerstad in that mix if you dont have to…and they don’t have to.

[OnlyOneOriole]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So was Torkelson, he was picked ahead of Kjerstad.

His draft pedigree is irrelevant.

See I disagree.   As a race horse trainer and owner who has trained 100s and 100s of horses and who has bought many yearlings and older horses, you 100% have to look at pedigree when buying a yearling, and you mix pedigree and past performance history when buying a horse that has already raced before.  That is really your only way to judge future performance.  I am not going to spend $50,000 on a horse with a sire like Amanda's Cadet, who was a poorly gaited horse I owned, but I would strongly consider it if the sire was Western Hanover.   Add in your ability to train and bring out the best in the horse and you make a judgement on what you think the horse will do in the future.

 

For example, I once traded the horse I mentioned above, Amanda's cadet, to another trainer for an On the Road Again sired horse.  On the Road Again is one of the greatest harness horses ever and he almost always had fast offspring.  But this horse that I traded for, the son of On the Road again named Jbs Expressway, was at the time 4 years old and had done nothing. Maybe had made $10,000 TOTAL up until then.   But man he was a beautifully built horse and I knew with his lineage that he had the potential to be really good. 

 

I traded the Cadet horse for JB, made a few changes, and he won his first 6 races for me and went on to make a ton of money for me.  He always had the pedigree, he just needed a change of scenery.  In Heston's case (btw there used to be a very fast horse called Heston Blue Chip), he has the pedigree and the past performance.   Trading him for these 2 relievers would be like trading a $100,000 stakes horse for two 6 year olds that up until this year had done nothing.  Sure they are faster right now but they never showed it before.

 

You just cannot do that.   If you are going to trade quality, or in the case with Heston 'potential quality' with a college and minor league history to back it up, you had better make damn sure you get proven quality back.    Those 2 relievers are not proven quality.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

See I disagree.   As a race horse trainer and owner who has trained 100s and 100s of horses and who has bought many yearlings and older horses, you 100% have to look at pedigree when buying a yearling, and you mix pedigree and past performance history when buying a horse that has already raced before.  That is really your only way to judge future performance.  I am not going to spend $50,000 on a horse with a sire like Amanda's Cadet, who was a poorly gaited horse I owned, but I would strongly consider it if the sire was Western Hanover.   Add in your ability to train and bring out the best in the horse and you make a judgement on what you think the horse will do in the future.

 

For example, I once traded the horse I mentioned above, Amanda's cadet, to another trainer for an On the Road Again sired horse.  On the Road Again is one of the greatest harness horses ever and he almost always had fast offspring.  But this horse that I traded for, the son of On the Road again named Jbs Expressway, was at the time 4 years old and had done nothing. Maybe had made $10,000 TOTAL up until then.   But man he was a beautifully built horse and I knew with his lineage that he had the potential to be really good. 

 

I traded the Cadet horse for JB, made a few changes, and he won his first 6 races for me and went on to make a ton of money for me.  He always had the pedigree, he just needed a change of scenery.  In Heston's case (btw there used to be a very fast horse called Heston Blue Chip), he has the pedigree and the past performance.   Trading him for these 2 relievers would be like trading a $100,000 stakes horse for two 6 year olds that up until this year had done nothing.  Sure they are faster right now but they never showed it before.

 

You just cannot do that.   If you are going to trade quality, or in the case with Heston 'potential quality' with a college and minor league history to back it up, you had better make damn sure you get proven quality back.    Those 2 relievers are not proven quality.

Sorry, I fell asleep there, you were saying?

[Can_of_corn]

What I'm hearing is that draft pedigree doesn't matter for Torkelson who went ahead of Kjerstad in the draft but does matter for Kjerstad who has only managed to accumulate 39 at bats in the majors.