Ben Clemens chat on the O’s

[Frobby]

bosoxforlife: The Orioles situation is unlike anything I have seen in my long  time of baseball watching. How would you handle? Trade the established major leaguers who aren’t great but are good or the untried youngsters who might turn into stars or bust?

2:48

Ben Clemens: It’s so crazy

2:48

Ben Clemens: I would be looking for stars in any trade I made

2:48

Ben Clemens: they’ve been smart about this, too

2:48

Ben Clemens: Corbin Burnes is the exact kind of player I’d be looking for

2:48

Ben Clemens: so for me, it’s more about what you can get than what you give up

2:49

Ben Clemens: There are downsides to each thing you trade away, like you said. But given how many core positions they already have locked down, you can play for upside in the remaining positions

2:49

Ben Clemens: they have seemingly 4 good options everywhere

2:49

Ben Clemens: might as well take some risk and try to get a high roll

[Spy Fox]

It’s really true. An example I was thinking about recently: 

I was in the small minority that voted Yes in this winter’s “Would you trade Gunnar Henderson for Spencer Strider” poll. (This was before the Burnes trade.) Obviously with Strider injured, Gunnar looking like an MVP candidate, and Burnes acquired as our ace instead, that move would have been disastrous compared to where we are now. But, even if we had made that mistake— a monstrous negative WAR swing— how does this team look with Westburg at SS and a full time spot open for one of Holliday/Mayo (or Ortiz if he’s still around in this universe)?

Still looks like a strong team to me, with solid options 1-9 in the lineup and 1-5 in the rotation. Even in this dark timeline where our best player and pitcher have vanished. 

[24fps]

Quote

...it's more about what you can get than what you give up.

The Corbin Burnes trade showed me that Elias is not going to put himself in a position to badly lose a trade.  Maybe it's time to stop worrying about the downside to the degree we all seem to.

[Billy F-Face3]

21 minutes ago, 24fps said:

The Corbin Burnes trade showed me that Elias is not going to put himself in a position to badly lose a trade.  

Mike Elias is a smart man. So is Sig Mejdal. And Eve Rosenbaum is a smart woman.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Mike Elias is a smart man. So is Sig Mejdal. And Eve Rosenbaum is a smart woman.

Even smart people occasionally make decisions that turn out badly in baseball.  

[Bemorewins]

9 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

It’s really true. An example I was thinking about recently: 

I was in the small minority that voted Yes in this winter’s “Would you trade Gunnar Henderson for Spencer Strider” poll. (This was before the Burnes trade.) Obviously with Strider injured, Gunnar looking like an MVP candidate, and Burnes acquired as our ace instead, that move would have been disastrous compared to where we are now. But, even if we had made that mistake— a monstrous negative WAR swing— how does this team look with Westburg at SS and a full time spot open for one of Holliday/Mayo (or Ortiz if he’s still around in this universe)?

Still looks like a strong team to me, with solid options 1-9 in the lineup and 1-5 in the rotation. Even in this dark timeline where our best player and pitcher have vanished. 

Yes that indeed would have been a disastrous trade. IMO you never want to put yourself in a position to give up young/budding franchise/potential superstar players. IMO those are the players you retain and build around.

But you are right in that even if the O’s make that trade, we would still be a good team. However, the question/issue is no longer about how we can be a good team. We have so much talent/depth throughout the org that we are going to be good no matter what.

The question/issue for the Orioles is how do we become a championship type team?

[Billy F-Face3]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Even smart people occasionally make decisions that turn out badly in baseball.  

True. The Mychal Givens,  Koltan Wong, and the LHB 2nd basemen whose name I forget from this past month are all examples. Not to mention paying Frazier $8 mill when he could have been signed for $6 mill. 

Another mistake is trading for a bad pitcher (Flaherty, Fujinami) just to trade for a warm body. I believe we could have had something in Showalter down the road and feel we over paid.

Gibson was expensive but I think he served his purpose for the season so I've got no nitpicks with that signing.

[Gurgi]

On 5/7/2024 at 7:41 PM, Frobby said:

bosoxforlife: The Orioles situation is unlike anything I have seen in my long  time of baseball watching. How would you handle? Trade the established major leaguers who aren’t great but are good or the untried youngsters who might turn into stars or bust?

2:48

Ben Clemens: It’s so crazy

2:48

Ben Clemens: I would be looking for stars in any trade I made

2:48

Ben Clemens: they’ve been smart about this, too

2:48

Ben Clemens: Corbin Burnes is the exact kind of player I’d be looking for

2:48

Ben Clemens: so for me, it’s more about what you can get than what you give up

2:49

Ben Clemens: There are downsides to each thing you trade away, like you said. But given how many core positions they already have locked down, you can play for upside in the remaining positions

2:49

Ben Clemens: they have seemingly 4 good options everywhere

2:49

Ben Clemens: might as well take some risk and try to get a high roll

Can you offer a link?  I tried to google it but am not getting this story.

[SpOkane]

58 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Can you offer a link?  I tried to google it but am not getting this story.

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/6/24 | FanGraphs Baseball

[btdart20]

Opportunity Cost and the importance of dry powder...  Also makes me wonder how Cease was valued...