Do you think Norby can be an everyday MLB player?

[sportsfan8703]

48 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

“This system isn’t that deep past 3 top ~15 prospects and 2 borderline top 100 prospects”

We’ve been spoiled by having a tremendous farm system the past few years, and have graduated by far the best young core of position players in baseball, without even counting those additional blue chip guys in Holliday, Mayo and Basallo. The system now looks more normal to above average than ludicrously strong.

There are plenty of interesting guys who could emerge but are not high probability prospects, and that’s what nearly all farm systems look like once you get past their top 5 prospects.

Once Holliday and Mayo graduate, it’s not likely to be a top 5 overall farm system anymore. But I expect it will still be in the 5-15 range. 

Yes, I thought about that when I posted it, but people think we have this endless supply of prospects. If we trade Norby and Stowers away because they’re spare parts, then one of Mayo/Basallo for Mason Miller, then our system is just Holliday, Kjerstad, EBJ, and one of Mayo/Bassalo. All of that without having picks in early rd 1. 

We’ve hit on a lot of picks, but still have struggling picks/money spent on Trimble, Rhodes, Wagner, Horvath, Fabian, and Carter Young. The draft is no guarantee. 

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yes, I thought about that when I posted it, but people think we have this endless supply of prospects. If we trade Norby and Stowers away because they’re spare parts, then one of Mayo/Basallo for Mason Miller, then our system is just Holliday, Kjerstad, EBJ, and one of Mayo/Bassalo. All of that without having picks in early rd 1. 

We’ve hit on a lot of picks, but still have struggling picks/money spent on Trimble, Rhodes, Wagner, Horvath, Fabian, and Carter Young. The draft is no guarantee. 

Agreed, and it's going to get much more difficult now that we aren't picking 1/1.

[CaptainRedbeard]

16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yes, I thought about that when I posted it, but people think we have this endless supply of prospects. If we trade Norby and Stowers away because they’re spare parts, then one of Mayo/Basallo for Mason Miller, then our system is just Holliday, Kjerstad, EBJ, and one of Mayo/Bassalo. All of that without having picks in early rd 1. 

We’ve hit on a lot of picks, but still have struggling picks/money spent on Trimble, Rhodes, Wagner, Horvath, Fabian, and Carter Young. The draft is no guarantee. 

Yeah, I agree that we don’t have an endless supply of top prospects and can’t really afford to trade any of Mayo/Basallo/Kjerstad for anything other than a top SP with many years of control. If Mason Miller didn’t have the huge injury question marks he might be around that value.

[Can_of_corn]

24 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yes, I thought about that when I posted it, but people think we have this endless supply of prospects. If we trade Norby and Stowers away because they’re spare parts, then one of Mayo/Basallo for Mason Miller, then our system is just Holliday, Kjerstad, EBJ, and one of Mayo/Bassalo. All of that without having picks in early rd 1. 

We’ve hit on a lot of picks, but still have struggling picks/money spent on Trimble, Rhodes, Wagner, Horvath, Fabian, and Carter Young. The draft is no guarantee. 

Padres always seem to have four to five guys they can trade.

[ChuckS]

Not in Baltimore. 

He's a smaller, pull hitter with moderate power.  That won't play well in Camden Yards. 

I think he has the potential to be an everyday player for a team with kinder dimensions in left, and ideally playing LF rather than 2B.   But more likely that he ends up a platoon or bench guy.  

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Norby projects to be about league average offensively. His AAA numbers look very good, but adjusting for the high level of offense at the AAA level means he’s not that far above AAA league average.

An average-ish AAA hitter doesn't project to be an average-ish MLB player unless he's very young. Norby will soon turn 24. The projection systems at Fangraphs all say he's a high .600s OPS hitter in the majors.

So without additional growth as a hitter, to be a MLB starter he's going to have to provide additional value, either with his glove or his positional flexibility.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, kidrock said:

Does he have the defense?

After adjusting his numbers down (from triple a to MLB), do you think he can hang on full time?  I really like him, but don’t know enough about projecting players.  Thanks for the wisdom.

No poll?

 

I do!

[emmett16]

His low Avg. EV #s give me some pause.  

[Warehouse]

I’m fairly bearish on Norby.  There doesn’t seem to be a tool that really stands out, in particular if you look at his statcast metrics.

Of his 8 home runs, I think 1 would clearly be a home run at OPACY, two would be close to top of wall but likely in play, and 5 would clearly not be out of the park.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors?hfPT=&hfAB=home\.\.run|&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookup[]=681393&hfFlag=is\.\.hit\.\.into\.\.play\.\.basehit\.\.home\.\.run\.\.outofpark|is\.\.remove\.\.bunts|&hfLevel=&metric_1=&hfTeamAffiliate=&hfOpponentAffiliate=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_is..tracked=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on&chk_stats_launch_angle=on&chk_stats_bbdist=on&chk_stats_hardhit_percent=on&chk_stats_barrels_per_bbe_percent=on&chk_stats_barrels_per_pa_percent=on#results

[kidrock]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If he can be a 780+ OPS guy, teams will find somewhere for him to play..so I say yes, assuming he hits.

Can you elaborate more on why you think roughly 780 OPS is the right mark?  Not disagreeing, just want to hear your thoughts.

[kidrock]

5 minutes ago, kidrock said:

Can you elaborate more on why you think roughly 780 OPS is the right mark?  Not disagreeing, just want to hear your thoughts.

Also - what does a normal OPS at Second or Left Field look like these days?  Seems like offense is down a bit.

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, kidrock said:

Can you elaborate more on why you think roughly 780 OPS is the right mark?  Not disagreeing, just want to hear your thoughts.

Just a number I’m throwing out but his OPs is going to have to be a little higher to offset the defense.

[jabba72]

On a 2nd or 3rd division non-contending team, sure Norby could start at an corner OF position or 2B. It doesn't seem like he has much trade value to those teams however. On a contending team it gets dicier.