My biggest question entering the season

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I mean Hays does have an option left, but I think he has enough service time to refuse it. With the way Hays is hitting sending him down to Norfolk for a month to reset his swing and mechanics wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

I don't how much longer Hays can keep getting regular at bats without showing any signs of life. This team is trying to win now and they have other qualified players who can get at bats when someone like Hays is doing nothing.

I can understand if he didn't want to go to Norfolk, but it seems like it would be in his best interest. He's still young and has shown that he can be a valuable player.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I can understand if he didn't want to go to Norfolk, but it seems like it would be in his best interest. He's still young and has shown that he can be a valuable player.

I don’t think he has a choice.  He has less than 5 years of service time I believe. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The issue with having the lowest/lower payroll (historically speaking) is those teams do no typically win World Series. In the last 10 years only 3 teams have appeared in a World Series who have not had a top half payroll (KC Royals, TB Rays [pandemic shortened season], HOU in '18 [beginning of their run]). And only 2 have won a title (KC and HOU). 

But nearly as important IMO is the cost of trying to operate on the cheap continuously and that is the loss of great/face of the franchise/HOF caliber. I don't see how the Orioles are going to allow Adley and Gunnar to walk in back to back seasons and it not have a tremendous negative impact on the fanbase. Most of the shirts at the stadium are #2 and #35. Unless you bring in other superstar type players/faces of the franchise AND win at a high level (not just regular season but in playoffs) you are going to be damaging your brand and the potential value of the franchise as less people/fans in the market are going to be engaged (i.e. willing to spend money on the team). And that will trickle out to suit, corporate, and ad sales.

I appreciate your comment, and I basically agree with it, but I think that it’s inaccurate to equate a high payroll with success or a low one with cheapness.

As I pointed out, the money we spent on Wade Miley was completely wasted, and I can’t think of a single high dollar free agent we signed, which includes Cobb, Jimenez, Gallardo, Davis and Trumbo, Being worth the contract they got.

I think it is entirely possible to be successful without blowing a ton of money on a player's successful past, hoping he will continue it in the future.

there is a difference between being cheap and being frugal. David has only owned the team for three months, so we have no idea what he’s going to do, but for me, the two best things about the guy are that he genuinely loves the team, and he’s very very good with money.

So I’m not going to worry about payroll. I think the main thing we have to focus on is how well Mike deals with the needs and assets he has.

So far, I don’t think he gets an A.

Edited May 29 by Philip

[sevastras]

2 hours ago, Phil Beckett said:

So I guess we have to put all of our faith in the fact they can take cheap scrap heaps and fix them.
 

Seems to be all we are going to do.

 

Personally, our payroll should be in the middle of the pack. AT LEAST!

 

When you spend more money, the idea is you get better players.
When you have better players, you win more games.

 

Of course you can spend the money stupidly, but then you get what you deserve.

 

can you imagine combining the success of Mike Elias with a larger payroll and better players?

 

heck. We might even be ahead of the Yankees right now!

 

When exactly were they going to spend more money? They were in the middle of a sale and then the passing of Peter. After the sale was finalized, who exactly was available to spend money on?  Blake Snell who has shit the bed so far this year?

[spleen1015]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he has a choice.  He has less than 5 years of service time I believe. 

You are correct. 4.057 years of service time.

[BRobinsonfan]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

In terms of on the field and strictly talking about players, my biggest concern/question was the bullpen and it still is.

However, the biggest question that I felt was looming over this team and the organization as a whole was how many young players is too many and when do you bring these guys up?

In a year of contention, how many guys do you want “learning on the job” while still focusing on winning?  
 

These are not easy decisions to make, especially when you have competent vet players that should produce at a level that helps the team, even if you feel the young players are more talented.

Fast forward to right now.  Holliday came up and struggled and he controls his path to get back.  Mayo may have been close to a call up but he got hurt.  Now, he may be looking at late July/early August before he’s a factor here.

Cowser has cemented himself as an everyday player despite his poor and unlucky numbers this month. But he takes arguably the best at bats on the team, is hitting the ball hard and is playing very good defense.

Stowers is potentially getting himself in at least a role as the strong side platoon player in the OF.

Kjerstad came up and was up and down but he he only had a few sporadic at bats and wasn’t given the proper chance.

The other side to this are the vets and many of them have had a lot of issues.  Hays has been awful outside of that glimmer of hope for a few days when he came back off the IL.   He has an OPS+ of 28, a wRC+ of 24, to go along with mediocre at best statcast numbers.

Mullins isn’t much better.  His statcast numbers are poor, his OPS+ is 68 and his wRC+ is 65. He is still playing good defense, so that’s good but he hasn’t been good with the bat at all.

Santander is hitting 203 and has a sub 300 OBP. He has two 3 hit games this year and if you take those away, he’s hitting 158 And his OPS is closer to 600 than 700.

Urias has been surpassed by Mateo and is barely playing and when he is playing, he’s not hitting at all.

Mateo has exceeded expectations and looks like he should keep the UTI role this year but we all know the offensive downturn is very likely coming and going off the idea that he is 5 for his last 31, that downturn may have already started.  Still, he has a role here.

Mountcastle and OHearn have been up and down but have remained relatively steady to the point where they playing them the amount they are, isn’t really hurting the team. Luckily the team is realizing they aren’t everyday guys, so that helps.

I believe Santander will get things going but I’m becoming more and more skeptical about Hays and Mullins.  Mullins is showing some signs lately and has been much better than Hays and the team is playing him less, so I guess that’s good.

But Hays is a problem. They need his RH bat but he’s not hitting anything and he’s swinging at awful pitches and he has largely been awful for the last 5 months of baseball.

The question of, how much youth is too much is being answered and the answer is, there isn’t “too much” if some of the vets are going to continue to be non factors.

If I were the Os, I would send down Hays for Kjerstad or Norby. Norby needs to be able to play OF defense up here but if he can, his RH bat may be valuable. Holliday will be up once he gets hot, so that will take care of itself and like I said, Mayo has to get healthy and playing again.

The starting pitching has been better than we thought, so they have been able to keep the team winning through some of these offensive droughts but when you have the talent the Os do in the minors, you can’t keep holding guys back as you hope for these vets to start hitting.

The Os have rightfully recognized that none of these vets are everyday guys, so they have at least taken that away but it may be time to do more than that.

Excellent post summarizing the current talent needs of the team and what prospect resources we have to potentially address those needs. 

 

I've always been an Elias cheerleader and a “trust the plan” advocate. Still, I must admit I'm frustrated that we didn't add an additional quality backend reliever to the mix either through trade or free agency. It seems like we could afford to overpay for that missing puzzle piece without breaking the bank or threatening the future 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Quality job by Melanie Newman.  How long has she been on MLB Tonight?  I assume it's on a part time basis.  I'm definitely not a fan of her play by play, but this was something she was good at. 

[Fiver6565]

I guess trolls just don’t get banned from this board?  Another thread derailed by this who won’t stop whinging about the payroll in every single post. 

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Philip said:

I appreciate your comment, and I basically agree with it, but I think that it’s inaccurate to equate a high payroll with success or a low one with cheapness.

As I pointed out, the money we spent on Wade Miley was completely wasted, and I can’t think of a single high dollar free agent we signed, which includes Cobb, Jimenez, Gallardo, Davis and Trumbo, Being worth the contract they got.

I think it is entirely possible to be successful without blowing a ton of money on a player's successful past, hoping he will continue it in the future.

there is a difference between being cheap and being frugal. David has only owned the team for three months, so we have no idea what he’s going to do, but for me, the two best things about the guy are that he genuinely loves the team, and he’s very very good with money.

So I’m not going to worry about payroll. I think the main thing we have to focus on is how well Mike deals with the needs and assets he has.

So far, I don’t think he gets an A.

You are correct and I agree that it is not about what you spend, but how you spend it. But I was speaking from a historical standpoint to the reality that winning a World Series has traditionally required spending (at a minimum payroll rank of #18 in the last decade).

Yes those were all bad contracts and some of them looked bad at the time given who the player was and would likely be going forward. Spending on those guys is different from say spending big dollars to lock up Henderson to what maybe a historic contract (given how good and young that he is). Or locking up other young players like Adley. Or bringing in big dollar difference making players. Or adding effective weapons in our pen. Or extending Burnes in the offseason or buying his replacement in another reliable/good to very good SP.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Excellent post summarizing the current talent needs of the team and what prospect resources we have to potentially address those needs. 

 

I've always been an Elias cheerleader and a “trust the plan” advocate. Still, I must admit I'm frustrated that we didn't add an additional quality backend reliever to the mix either through trade or free agency. It seems like we could afford to overpay for that missing puzzle piece without breaking the bank or threatening the future 

 

 You mean "additional" in addition to Kimbrel? Because that was a pretty big signing and he's been as advertised aside from a few hiccups.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Norby for Urias makes a ton of sense. Not a great defensive 2B but you don't really need that from your bench guy. If he comes in to PH for Mateo or Stowers, you have a viable defense of Norby 2B, Gunnar SS, Westburg 3B. Eventually Holliday takes that spot. 

I think we keep auditioning Stowers and Cowser while keeping Kjerstad as an option in AAA if either fail.  

I think we should keep Hays for now and keep giving him chances. He is a year removed from one of his best seasons and can be a defensive asset even if we stop using him as a hitting option.

Norby's issues is he doesn't play 3B. Who backs up Westburg at 3B if Urias is replaced by Norby? Sure, Gunnar could play there, but he's the everyday SS. 

Nick Maton or potentially Vavra certainly could be a replacement for Urias if the team thinks they can play 3B effectively enough to give Westburg a day off here and there.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Quality job by Melanie Newman.  How long has she been on MLB Tonight?  I assume it's on a part time basis.  I'm definitely not a fan of her play by play, but this was something she was good at. 

I didn’t know she was..but I agree she’s does well in that studio format.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 You mean "additional" in addition to Kimbrel? Because that was a pretty big signing and he's been as advertised aside from a few hiccups.

Removed from the closer role due to performance issues.

Indeed, as advertised.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 You mean "additional" in addition to Kimbrel? Because that was a pretty big signing and he's been as advertised aside from a few hiccups.

Yes, it was obvious they needed at least 2 big BP additions.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Excellent post summarizing the current talent needs of the team and what prospect resources we have to potentially address those needs. 

 

I've always been an Elias cheerleader and a “trust the plan” advocate. Still, I must admit I'm frustrated that we didn't add an additional quality backend reliever to the mix either through trade or free agency. It seems like we could afford to overpay for that missing puzzle piece without breaking the bank or threatening the future 

 

Scrap heap guys are scrap heap guys for a reason. We can’t keep relying on them every year.